Eurodollar University

Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Whether they want to admit it now or not, Jay Powell completely changed his tune in a matter of less than two weeks. What's more, another major central bank seems to have done the same thing and during the same two week timeframe. What the hell is going on changing all these hawks not to doves but increasingly chickens?  Eurodoll...

Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 There are several reasons why suddenly the Fed has apparently accepted market rates going sharply lower. The soft landing scenario might be in greater jeopardy than recent data indicates - or it might more likely come from outside the US. Our focus here, however, is on the financial. What if conditions in the CRE market we all kn...

Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 What's the difference between a dollar short and a dollar shortage? The one actually comes from the needs of the other. To understand them both, you have to consider what a reserve currency really is - and what it is not- and how it is supposed to do its job. We're left considering only a range of bad options given those constrai...

Why is the Fed pivoting? More importantly, why now? We have to consider a couple of options since central bank officials are privy to more data than we have. Not that they know what to do with it, but if there's something they see perhaps we don't yet it's worth figuring it out ahead of time. After all, with rates plunging markets are in a rush to get somewhere already.  Eurodollar University's co...

China's growing economy and financial turmoil may seem like a world away, but it's closer than you might think. After all, bond yields aren't just plunging around the globe solely because the US may or may not end up in recession. There are far greater and more immediate concerns elsewhere right now, starting with the Chinese. What happens there matters everywhere, too. Even Economists like Paul K...

If you are interested, we are having a holiday sale. You can check it out here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 The FOMC and its dots. Stocks took them one way, bonds another. After pounding higher-for-longer all year, suddenly officials just gave up on it like nothing. That's a bit curious already. We need to understand what lower rates really mean, both in the marketplace and why...

Is the bond market wrong?  Has it been wrong in the past? How useful are these esoteric indications and curves? Do they actually corroborate with anything in reality? On the day when the Fed meets and all eyes are on interest rates, let's go through an example where it looked like the markets got it all wrong but in reality they got every last bit right. What curves were really telling us then, an...

New multi-month low in oil, multi-year low in gasoline. Big turn into more contango for WTI futures. Energy sector completely overshadows US CPI for November even as energy prices are one key reason for the heavy disinflation in it. We need only look back to last year and wonder how we got to be in the same place all over again. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis OPEC Statement Nov...

What's bothering bonds? Several key issues starting with how everything about China is going wrong right now. The country just reported a sizable acceleration in deflation, both consumer and producer, on top of increasing problems in its money markets like repo. With those developing against a backdrop of failed stimulus, Moody's has chimed in with downgrades to its outlook for the country, for it...

If you want to check out the full video, visit Eurodollar University: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page Take advantage of this exclusive offer! The bond market scares many away as it’s full of jargon and technicalities, but that ends today with Alf’s Bond Market Course. And Alf throws in a juicy 20% OFF discount just for Eurodollar University listeners! The first 50 buyers can get 20% O...

November payrolls beat expectations yet again as the cycle stretches farther. Even so, the labor market is exhibiting telltale signs of recession anyway - not that it will matter to the soft landing narrative. Industries accounting for half of all private US jobs are cutting them. Contraction is widespread already, just not widespread enough to be accepted more broadly. The way things are going, a...

Bonds are screaming bloody murder. By contrast, stocks are taking everything in stride, betting more strongly on disinflation, soft landing, a few rate cuts, every possible Goldilocks angle. Or so it would seem. What do equities really price? Not fundamentals like "liquidity" as is so often claimed nor the economy. Valuations are a fiction. History shows us where the heart of the NYSE really lies,...

Oil prices down big again. A lot more contango, too. Bond buying remains heavy and while not quite to the bull steepening it's moving in on that key point. All signs point to lower rates ahead, but isn't that a good thing? That's what we're supposed to believe... Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Ben Bernanke: Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress April 2008 https://w...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve More big moves in the markets including key financial numbers. It is increasingly looking like we've reached the point of non-linearity for both the monetary system as well as the real economy. While waiting for labor market confirmation in t...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve #europe  Wild trading last week wasn't just about recession worries, there was quite a bit of fear pushed into curves particularly forward curves and especially those in Europe. By Friday, the moves were astounding, the sort of swings last se...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve  Recent Federal Reserve report claims at least half the country is already in recession, while another substantial portion likely is. Not only does that match softening rhetoric from policymakers, obviously there's been a radical change in ma...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #government #governmentdebt #debt  Governments are out of control. This insanity can't go on much longer, can it? Understanding how it came to be this way, and why, that's the key to answering that question. Blackmail and myths. The problem isn't really govt debt, it's what the debt is being used to (try...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #china  The more the Chinese government does, the worse you know it must be. China's government is doing even more. That simple rule applies to the global economy since conditions there are a reflection of how it's going around the world. Despite expectations the country has "turned a corner",...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe #japan Interest rates all over the world are dropping, fast. Economic fundamentals are being repriced in global bonds - hard - now that the September effect has fully dissipated and - this is the important part - the world is more and more confirmed...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe  Banks all over the world are preparing for...something. In addition to hoarding liquidity, they're also derisking and back to hedging again. We see those among US banks and the financial system as well as in Europe where lending has especially suffe...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity  Over the last several weeks there have been concerning developments across the global banking system. Overseas data point to serious enough trouble it is causing foreign official institutions to take evasive actions. But it isn't just offshore banks; data for domestic US ba...

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#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #europe #france #germany #japan  The balance is shifting more decisively, both in the global economy and official reaction to it. More central banks are now cutting rates than hiking them. This is an especially critical development since "monetary" authorities are typically among the last to re...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #europe #france #germany #japan  Soft landing vs. hard landing isn't really hard. It all comes down to employment and the jobs market is merely the last stage in a discreet process. We have more and more information which more and more uniformly shows the world entering that last stage.  Eurodo...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #oil #gasoline  Even OPEC is having trouble dealing with the growing turmoil in the oil market. Weak demand is forcing the cartel to confront very difficult choices. The reason is because recent price weakness isn't really just about energy. A whole range of financial indications ar...