Eurodollar University

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below. https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4 Chinese "banks" opted for an unusually large cut to China's benchmark 5-year Loan Prime Rate. In truth, that appears at the behest of Beijing where authorities are becoming increasingly desperate. Nothing the...

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below. https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar As more countries around the world "unexpectedly" succumb to recession, the consequences aren't strictly economic. While globally synchronized means many more will follow, the costs need to be accounted for in...

There are just a few more spaces left to sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university It's a recession rash. Economic growth expectations slashed, "unexpectedly", of course. Technical recessions spreading around the world's major economies because real ones are. Yet, still the idea of a US decoupling persists resti...

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university There are a lot of parallels now and the 1970s - and inflation isn't actually one of them. The whole world saw recession coming in 1979, even that vast majority of those on the FOMC. Except, there was no recession in '79. It's what leads up to contraction that matters, n...

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university This is getting out of hand. Not only is it a major risk and not just to those "invested" in equities, there are several deeply troubling reasons to care why several major economy stock indexes are setting new highs while the economies allegedly tied to them suffer subst...

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university Stocks keep hitting new highs yet one of those markets which is doing just that also proves that it can't be because of the economy. This one leaves little doubt especially as so many other markets pile on with their views (not even talking bonds here). Stocks are buying...

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university No one remembers the "red hot" and "sticky" supply shock of 2010 and 2011 BECAUSE it was, yes, transitory. The Fed didn't need to raise rates or do anything. In fact, the FOMC was busy with more "accommodating" policies like Operation Twist and then two more QEs, yet con...

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university China's yuan has been constantly put forward as a contender to 'dethrone' the dollar. Whatever sliver of a tiny chance it may have had before, it's zero now. The greater challenge is how to replace the existing reserve regime which does need an update. But that means eur...

To get the rest of the conversation, become a Eurodollar University member and/or DDA subscriber. We've got unadvertised sales available that will allow you access to all the EDU content, including the the full hour-plus with Ken here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Eurodollar University's conversations w/Ken McElroy https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/Je...

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university The more they tell us how great everything is, the more you know it isn't. Americans like their compatriots from around the world know something isn't right. We've seen this kind of divergence from "elite" opinion, descriptions, even mainstream labor data before. Long an...

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university You might be amazed at just how much Chinese authorities have tried to stabilize their system. If you knew, you'd understand why so much of Beijing is verging on panic-mode. The huge response has come up empty which is a clear signal for how much trouble there really is....

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university What's behind the renewed banking woes? Sure, we know it almost certainly has to do with commercial real estate, but we need to get a sense of how much trouble that might lead to. Digging into what information we have available, let's put some hard numbers on the CRE bub...

To sign up for our free February 19 webinar, follow the links at our homepage here: https://www.eurodollar.university According to these historically validated datapoints, the worst is straight ahead for the US in 2024. In just two charts, we can place together three critical pieces of macroeconomic information which provides a useful guide for determining cyclical circumstances in the US economy....

After an "unexpected" late 2023 plunge, oil prices rebounded and the WTI curve even managed to flip from contango to backwardation. Rather than point to a firming global situation, the latest move in the crude market instead proves it was just Red Sea shipping fears. A shocking collapse in German trade reminds us of what oil's fundamentals really are. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Anal...

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar It's not just the payroll data that is conflicted with itself, there are a number of other mainstream sources where the economic situation depicted by...

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar This is getting ridiculous. We've become used to seeing Est. Survey vs. HH Survey in US labor data, but now it's Est. Survey vs. Est. Survey. The headl...

If you're looking for a guide on collateral and how to spot shortfalls in it, get your copy of EDU's report on collateral shortages here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral This isn't about a relatively small New York community bank no one had heard of until yesterday. The markets reactions to it were far more important than the details of that bank's announcement. There is not a whol...

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar Suggest topics or someone to join Jeff on Presidents Day in the comments. Wild day in bonds has the market doing something highly unusual. There "shoul...

Full interview with Brent Johnson on Eurodollar Dominance https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollar You won't believe how much debt our broke government issued last year. MULTIPLE trillions. At the same time, the Federal Reserve did three-quarters of a trillion USTs roll off its balance sheet (QT). Rather than destroy the Treasury market or bonds in general, quite the opposite has happened. You...

New York Fed's Empire PMI kicked off the January data cycle by plunging. In the meantime, the rest of the regional data filled in the picture for the month and the final one of the group ended up more like the first one than not. We shouldn't underestimate the usefulness of these surveys especially since there are numerous signs, however long it might end up being, this is still a cycle.  Eurodoll...

To see the rest of Jeff's conversation with Hugh, become an EDU member or DDA subscriber. There is so much more available for EDU members and subscribers, starting with loads of background material, video series like the Basics, multi-part presentations, Q&A vids, Classroom pieces that go over the crucial parts of money and the eurodollar system. Subscribers to EDU's Deep Dive Analysis (DDA) g...

The Fed keeps having to screw around with what should be its primary job. The Fed is now trying to go back to the past with its Discount Window, hoping to fix it so the program might work this time. Officials are in a bind being forced to unwind the BTFP after unintentionally granting too generous terms. What are they missing?  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodol...

For those in the Soft Landing USA camp, there was everything in today's Q4 2023 GDP report. Growth rate, consumers, an even more solid dose of disinflation. Near perfect Goldilocks. So why wasn't it taken that way in the market? Some answers from Europe.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Lagarde Says It’s Likely ECB Will Cut Rates in Summer https://www.bloomberg.com/new...

Unnerved by recent developments in financial markets and its economy, Chinese authorities unveiled a rash of new measures. To understand the degree of danger, we examine the proposals before keying on critical signals like repo and interbank conditions.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis PBOC statement http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5218615/index.html Bloomberg...

Beside the S&P 500, Japan's Nikkei 225 has been basking in the global spotlight. Surging to its highest in decades and not all that far anymore from its own all-time mark, it might seem Japanese equity investors are expressing loads of confidence from the Asian perspective. Just like US indices, however, there are a number of reasons to look at the Nikkei with caution - starting with China and...