Eurodollar University

A wild FOMC meeting triggered by a rejiggering of the dots. Those don't really matter except as insight into how confused policymakers have become. Why are they confused? Rate hikes don't appear to be working, so they are having a hard time deciding what should happen next. Markets aren't so conflicted, only about the likeliest path for ST rates.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis...

Well, they did it. The Bank of Japan ended its NIRP and YCC, raising its call money rate for the first time in forever. That's not the issue. Why they did it is open for debate, one that right now is taking place across markets. It's not going well for the rate-hikers.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BoJ Statement March 19, 2024 https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2024/k2...

The Fed. Japanese destiny. Down Under. The Old Lady, Mexico, Brazil, and the Czech Republic. And those are just the start. A ton of central banks are going to be deliberating just this week. And while their policies don't really mean much to the economy, they can impact markets in the short run while also providing some somewhat useful clues about where the world really stands. Here's what to look...

The Fed shut down the BTFP, but just before it closed billions in loans were made to banks over the repeated objections of policymakers. Officials have been pushing depositories toward the Discount Window to the point even the FHLB system is dissuading its members from using its own advances as emergency liquidity. Yet, the last-minute BTFP indicates banks just aren't doing it with some substantia...

China just held its National People's Congress amidst more economic and financial turmoil than at any time in its modern history. Two things quickly became clear: Xi Jinping continues to insulate himself politically from any potential fallout; his government has no idea what to be about it. The latest data from Chinese banks and the country's housing market highlight the gravity of the situation ...

More recession signals. We've got the major dollar store chains in the US closing stores and reporting troubling results about consumer behavior. Those are now backed up by hard evidence in the form of retail sales, which have been much worse than initial thought. Behind everything, the looming recession, is the fact oil prices are NOT inflation nor inflationary.  Eurodollar University's Money &am...

Is "inflation" back? A big part of the answer to that question comes from the oil market, though not at all in the way you might think. A revisit of the 2008 crude oil bubble/shock to see what it can tell us about a lot more than consumer prices in 2024. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis OPEC March 2024 Announcement https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7305.htm Remarks by G...

Today is the last day for new loans from the Fed's BTFP, and there is still $165 billion being borrowed from it. In fact, that balance increased just last week. What are the implications of the shutdown? We keep coming back to the same factor which was all over last March. And with CRE looming in the background, too.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

As serious economic weakness begins to increasingly show itself, the Fed is going to pivot and thereby try to sell the public on lower rates as somehow being something positive. A small bit of economy insurance and nothing more. And they'll point to 1995 as for why. In reality, this is already nothing like thirty years ago. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodo...

Evidence for US recession and labor market woes are getting much stronger. While everyone fixates on the growing absurdity of the payroll revisions, the CPS data threw up THREE very strong recession signals, each historically validated, showing this isn't a short-term fluctuation or narrow, isolated occurrence. Plus, a fourth signal that is entire consistent with those other three. Employment rece...

Full Disclosure: Jeff has worked with Mr. Saxe as a trustee for a stablecoin project Ryne is the COO for.  The mainstream image of cryptocurrencies is cowboys and charlatans playing around with technology that doesn't seem to have any practical use. Kids are getting rich - many going broke - on what can appear to be trivial functions. Reality couldn't be farther from the truth. As Ryne points out,...

China's 10-year government bond yield just reached a 20-year low. UST yields are moving down again. What does it all mean; more importantly why do we need to care? It isn't just the signal bond curves provide, it is just as much the lack of direct access to the information we truly need.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Transcript February 1999 https://www.federalreserve.go...

Evidence continues to show we're in half a recession already. There is a huge discrepancy between the "strong" US employment in the media and what's actually happening. Even mainstream sources are being forced to deal with how different the jobs market is to those actually experiencing it. These aren't isolated cases or stories, the data backing them up continues to pile up.  Eurodollar University...

Gold is high but not on Waller. Fed Governor Chris Waller seems to have sparked the most recent jump in the metal, with people jumping all over their inference of some incoming Reverse Operation Twist. Untangling the fedspeak from so many huge misconceptions about gold - it is a TERRIBLE inflation hedge, as you'll see - in order to make sense of another legit red flag.  Eurodollar University's Mon...

It's bad enough that China's shakiest real estate firms are going to be creating big losses and not just for other Chinese financials. Now comes word the last remaining investment grade developer is rumored to be experiencing liquidity trouble, too. It is a sign of further progress - in the wrong direction. We need to understand what it means when Beijing is this impotent. Eurodollar University's...

Digital technology is revolutionizing every aspect of our lives, now including money. The first in a three-part series as Jeff travels to ETH Denver, the world's preeminent Ethereum conference, to start digging in to digital with those who are actually doing it, the insiders. Up first, world-renowned scholar, investor and, yes, philosopher-historian Manny Rincon Cruz. Eurodollar University's conve...

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis AP US national debt hits record $34 trillion as Congress gears up for funding fight https://apnews.com/article/national-debt-deficits-biden-economy-inflation-record-b4258704f830c7f6e9c5e693748216cb Milton Friedman Newsweek “Deficits and Inflation" https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/214251/full https://www.eurodollar.univer...

Unlike most terms thrown around Economics, 'globally synchronized' is no joke. It also isn't a recent development. Throughout modern history, when a sizable portion of the world starts to show contraction it will spread throughout the rest with very few spared. It is a poignant reminder given how the same is happening right now.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BoJ New Procedure...

To get the rest of the Lyn Alden, George Gammon conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Japan is in recession, one that is getting worse. Japanese officials tell you not to believe your lying eyes, inflation is the greatest risk. All the data conclusivel...

To get the rest of the Lyn Alden, George Gammon conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 How accurate are market tools like spreads? If you're looking for absolute precision, you're in the wrong business. These measures are highly useful for broad purpose...

To get the rest of this conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Eurodollar University's conversations, Guests Lyn Alden & George Gammon https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU #lynalden

The Federal Reserve "prints" bank reserves, that's it. To understand why that matters, you have to understand where bank reserves came from and what they were and are intended for. It isn't at all what you think. But don't take my word for it; that comes straight from the Fed itself.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Atlanta The Evolution of the Check as a Means of Payment: A...

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below. https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4 The FOMC's minutes for its January meeting shed light on the dilemma currently hitting policymakers. They're seeming embrace of the lower rates from last bond rally was no fluke. They instead share our growin...

Another rash of layoffs is sweeping the US economy and its labor market. Only this time, unlike last year, the background behind them is far more concerning and even dangerous (economically, speaking). Those threatened by being thrown out of work know the score isn't entirely made up from those job cuts. It's actually the grim reality of no hiring.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analys...