Economic Insights by Nationwide

Is the economy heading for a soft landing, a hard landing, or no landing at all? How could the financial markets be impacted under the different landing scenarios and what are they telling us now? Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic, and Nationwide's head of fixed income, Brad Beman, provide their outlook on the different landing scenarios and the potential market impact. [NFM-20130AO.7...

Last year the housing market was pummeled by the sharp rise in mortgage rates. Demand conditions still look quite dour in 2023, especially with loan rates projected to remain higher for some time. Can we expect housing activity to bottom out soon? What could that mean for home values? Nationwide’s Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their outlook on the housing sector...

With the Q4 earnings season largely completed, earnings growth looks to be down around 5% y/y - the first decline on a year-on-year basis since Q3 2020. (FactSet) Is this a harbinger of further earnings declines ahead? What does this mean for the equity market? The slowing in inflation has moderated. What does that indicate about pricing power within different sectors? And how will the Fed react?...

With new leadership in the House and a narrowly divided Senate, what are the key priorities for the 118th Congress? How much legislation should we expect from a divided government? What could be the economic impact from the new power dynamics in Washington? [NFM - 20130AO.67]

The market for workers remains very tight and is supporting economic growth - while concerns for a potential recession continue to build. Wages for employees are rising, which is great news for households, but makes it more challenging for the Fed to lower inflation. This week the Fed raised rates again for the eighth time in a row. How much impact are these rate hikes having on the labor market -...

What does the GDP report for Q4 2022 tell us about the state of our economy as the year came to an end? What impact has the Fed's rate hikes had on GDP? How does this report impact our outlook of the economy and financial markets, and the potential for a recession? [NFM - 20130AO.65]

High prices and concerns about a recession are weighing on the minds of many consumers. How has this impacted consumer spending? What is our outlook for consumer activity? [NFM - 20130AO.64]

Following a string of weaker CPI prints, inflation appears to have crested in the second half of 2022. Easing commodity prices and healing supply chains have cooled prices, even with services costs still accelerating. But inflation remains very high heading into 2023, likely driving further rate hikes by the Fed in coming months. Nationwide economists Kathy Bostjancic and Ben Ayers provide their r...

Nationwide Market Insights (NMI)for Q1 2023 is now available, featuring commentary and insight into the economy and financial markets. NMI's author, Nationwide’s Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan, highlights key pages and provides additional perspective. To view or download the quarterly report while you listen to this podcast, visit nationwidefinancial.com/economics. [NFM 20130AO.62]

As we close out the year, it's time to look forward and provide our economic outlook for 2023. What could inflation look like next year? How much higher could the Fed raise rates? And how close are we to a recession? [NFM-20130AO.61]

In their final meeting of the year, the FOMC remains focused on controlling inflation and announced yet another rate increase. But this time, the rate increase was only half a point. What does this tell us about the state of inflation and the economy? Are the rate increases starting to have the impact that the Fed was hoping for? Will we see rates continue to increase next year, and if so - how mu...

November’s jobs report showed surprisingly strong hiring and faster growth in average hourly earnings — suggesting little easing of labor market conditions. What does this tell us about the overall economy? How could this affect the Fed's decision to continue with their aggressive rate hikes? Nationwide's economists Bryan Jordan and Ben Ayers discuss the recent jobs report and what it tells us abo...

This year's economic environment has challenged many businesses — with rising costs, a tight labor market, and worries of a pending recession. Nationwide’s Senior Economist, Ben Ayers, shares recent trends for the business sector and its impact the broader economy. [NFM-20130AO.58]

Retail sales rose by 1.3 percent in October — its largest increase in eight months. What does this mean for the all-important holiday shopping in the weeks ahead? Will inflation keep shoppers away? Bryan Jordan, Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist, shares his outlook on the holiday shopping season. [NFM-20130AO.57]

The U.S. economy has certainly seen turbulent times in 2022. And agricultural markets have not been immune to this, disrupted by geopolitics, weather events, and sharply rising costs for farmers throughout the year. In this episode, we look at events that impacted agricultural commodity prices with an outlook for 2023. [NFM-20130AO.56]

With inflation still high, the Fed just announced an increase of interest rates by three quarters of a percent, the sixth rate increase this year. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their perspectives on the Fed's announcement and share their outlook on future rate increases. How have these rate increases impacted the economy and financial marke...

Real GDP growth bounced back in the third quarter, increasing at an annualized rate of 2.6%. While still not strong, the renewed expansion for the economy is a further sign that a recession is not quite imminent.  What trends do we see for consumers and businesses? What is the likelihood of a recession?  If a recession does occur, when could it start and how bad could it be? [NFM-20130AO.54]

In addition to the many cyclical crosscurrents, the economy has also been hampered in recent years by several structural trends. Weakness in labor force and productivity growth have weighed on the underlying GDP trend and represent ongoing risk factors for the years ahead. Part two of our two-part series on the risks that weigh on economic growth focuses on productivity. [NFM-20130AO.53]

In addition to the many cyclical crosscurrents, the economy has also been hampered in recent years by several structural trends. Weakness in labor force and productivity growth have weighed on the underlying GDP trend and represent ongoing risk factors for the years ahead. Part one of our two-part series on the risks that weigh on economic growth focuses on the labor force. [NFM-20130AO.52]

Go beyond the pages of the quarterly Nationwide Market Insights (NMI) with Bryan Jordan, Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist. In this podcast, Bryan provides additional perspective and commentary regarding key pages. View the quarterly report while you listen to this podcast. https://nationwidefinancial.com/economics

The North American International Auto Show just wrapped up its first assembly since 2019. This is a good time to share our outlook on the auto market, featuring insight from Ben Ayers - Senior Economist at Nationwide. Is auto production improving? How could a boost in supply impact new and used car prices? With the increase of electric vehicles and ride sharing, what shifts could we see in how con...

The FOMC held its September meeting this week, announcing another 75 basis point rate increase. (*) What impact could this rate hike have on inflation and economic growth? (*) Are more aggressive hikes on the horizon? (*) Based on the Fed's recent actions, is the likelihood of a recession growing stronger? Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers reflect on t...

August's CPI was higher than expected, putting further strain on the economy and alarming investors. In this episode, Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan shares his perspective on the current state of inflation. * Have we recovered from the supply-chain issues related to the pandemic? * What else is driving inflation? * What does the rising value of the dollar tell us?

Rising interest rates, record high home prices, and a slowing economy have caused the housing market to cool following a boom in home sales. What impact has inflation had on housing? Are home prices overvalued? If a recession occurs, how could the value of homes be impacted? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers look closely at recent data and share their outlook...

In this second part of Recession 101, we discuss the current economic backdrop and examine the likelihood that we are now or will soon be in a recession. (*) What causes recessions? (*) What do recent economic indicators imply about a current or pending recession? (*) How will we know if we are in a recession? (*) If a recession does occur, how deep or how long could the next downturn be? NFM-2013...