Economic Insights by Nationwide

Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their analysis of August's CPI data and discuss when the Fed may finally get inflation under control. [NFM - 22911AO]

Congress returns to Capitol Hill this month from summer recess. What do they hope to accomplish before the end of the year? What impact could the 2024 election have? What support could Congress provide in response to recent national disasters and a potential economic downturn? Nationwide's Senior Economist, Ben Ayers, and Senior Director of Governmental Relations, Carson Lewis, share their outlook...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was the keynote speaker at this year's economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. His speech included remarks on inflation, interest rates, and the overall economy. What did we learn from his comments and how could it change our economic outlook? How did the markets react to his comments? Did Powell provide any hints about additional rate hikes? Hear a recap of the Jackso...

With a tight labor market and wages on the rise, the current expansion rolls on. Are certain states performing better than others? If so, what's driving some states to have more employment opportunities than others? And how well could those states perform if a recession starts? Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide insight and analysis of regional employmen...

How are back-to-school costs shaping up this year and how does this fit within the broader spending narrative for consumers? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their outlook for back-to-school spending and the overall state of the consumer. [NFM - 22911AO]

How does July's CPI report impact our outlook for inflation? What are the markets saying about the Fed’s ability to achieve its 2% inflation target? What is the likelihood of an economic soft landing? Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, and Scott Murray, Financial Market Consultant, provide their perspective and outlook of inflation and the potential for a soft landing. [NFM-22911AO]

After skipping a rate hike at the June policy meeting, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate by 25 bps yesterday to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This marked the 11th time since March 2022 that the Fed raised interest rates. Could more rate hikes be on the way? Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic, and Nationwide’s head of Fixed Income, Brad Beman, provide analysis and insight on July's FOM...

The housing market has shown some signs of life in 2023 despite still high mortgage rates. Home construction has bounced back too, although concerns for a likely recession exist. What’s the current state of residential home building and what trends are we watching over the rest of the year and into 2024? Also, what are we expecting for commercial construction? Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Aye...

The consumer price index cooled further in June as food and energy prices have eased in recent months. But strong housing and services inflation continues to drive a hot pace of core inflation – a key focus area for the Fed. Are there any signs that core inflation will decline over the second half of 2023? And what is our updated outlook for the Fed based upon expected inflation trends? Nationwide...

As we enter the second half of 2023, how has the economy performed so far? What's our outlook for the rest of the year? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers share their perspectives. What has been the biggest surprise? What key events are they watching for in the months ahead? [NFM - 22911AO]

Rebecca Wilder (Senior Investment Professional and head of Emerging Markets, Nationwide Financial) and Scott Murray (Financial Markets Consultant) share their assessment of China's economy and its ripple effects on the rest of the world. [NFM-22911M3]

The Fed announced no change in interest rates during their June meeting. This breaks the streak of 10 straight meetings in which the central bank raised interest rates in order to slow down inflation. However, the FOMC strongly signaled more rate hikes are possible this year. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Chief of Investment Research Mark Hackett provide their reaction and anal...

A recent Nationwide Retirement Institute® survey revealed business owners’ top financial goals, priorities, and concerns ahead of a potential recession. We found that many are bracing for a recession and are being impacted by economic pressures such as inflation and rising interest rates. Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and President of Nationwide Corporate Solutions JJ Perez provide...

The labor market is showing little evidence of slowing despite the Fed’s effort to decrease demand through higher interest rates. Next week’s FOMC meeting will be watched closely as the committee debates raising the fed funds rates again. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers share their analysis of the latest employment report and what the Fed may announce a...

Consumers are spending broadly on services this year - which is good news for the travel industry. Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their outlook on consumer spending, especially in terms of travel and services.

CPI was hotter again in April with higher gasoline prices and services costs. This comes on the heels of a stronger-than-expected jobs report for April which showed yet another jump in wages for workers. Nationwide economists Ben Ayers and Daniel Vielhaber discuss how the tight labor market continues to push up inflation despite the Fed’s sharp rate tightening.

May 3, 2023: The FOMC announced a 25 basis point increase in the fed funds rate in its continued effort to slow down inflation. How effective has this tightening cycle been on controlling inflation? In what ways has the overall economy been impacted? When could the Fed decide to lower rates again? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their analysis o...

Despite a strong start to the year for hiring and consumer spending, the economy was less resilient in the first quarter than expected. What's in store for the economy in the second quarter? Do we still expect a recession to hit later this year? Nationwide's Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their perspectives on economic growth.

The bond market is again at odds with the Federal Reserve’s forecast for interest rates, placing nearly 50% odds of a rate cut at the September policy meeting as investors believe the Fed will be cutting rates as the economy falls into recession. However, the equity market continues be quite resilient in the face of rising recession headwinds. Nationwide’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist...

The consumer price index showed further signs of cooling in March, led by declining prices in grocery stores and at the gas pump. But it was not all good news as services inflation remains high and could keep some cost increases elevated for consumers into 2024. Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers shares his analysis of the March CPI report. Ben also explains supercore inflation and its impact o...

Nationwide Market Insights (NMI)for Q2 is now available, featuring commentary and insight into the economy and financial markets. NMI's author, Nationwide’s Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan, highlights key pages and provides additional perspective. To view or download the quarterly report while you listen to this podcast, visit nationwidefinancial.com/economics. [NFM-22911AO]

The banking industry has experienced several challenges recently, causing ripple effects in the financial markets and the overall economy. What contributed to the recent challenges in the banking industry? What are the short-term and long-term impacts? Nationwide’s Scott Murray and Artur Piper provide their analysis of these recent challenges and the potential economic and financial market impacts...

At the outset of March's FOMC meeting, there was speculation that the Fed would pause rate increases, especially with the current banking crisis. However, at the conclusion of the meeting, Chairman Powell announced a 25 basis point increase in interest rates — the ninth consecutive increase of this tightening cycle. How are markets reacting to this news? What impact are these rate increases having...

Inflation remains the hot topic as price pressures for consumers remain sticky in many categories - especially food prices. What did we learn from today's CPI report? Did February continue January's hotter trend for inflation? How could the Fed react to the latest inflation data? Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their outlook on inflation with a focus on rising foo...

With high service costs keeping inflation elevated, the exceptionally tight labor market will be a key swing factor for the Fed this year. Demand for workers continues to run at a fever pitch despite much higher borrowing costs for businesses and rising concerns for a recession. Nationwide’s Deputy Chief Economist, Bryan Jordan, and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the path forward for the labor...