Economic Insights by Nationwide

Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the state of the consumer and how strong spending could impact our recession outlook. What factors are strengthening the consumer? Are consumers overextending themselves? What is our outlook for consumer spending for the rest of 2024? [NFM - 22911AO]

With inflation still running hot and consumers still strong, the FOMC held the fed funds rate steady at their March meeting. They also released their new macro and interest rate forecasts. Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Nationwide’s head of fixed income Brad Beman analyze the FOMC’s announcement and provide their outlook for the economy and financial markets. [NFM-22911AO]

Consumer inflation has been hotter than the Federal Reserve has hoped for - amid resilient spending by consumers and hiring by businesses. Much of the focus has been on the rising costs for services, but higher rents have played a large role, too. What’s driving these trends and what does this mean for potential Fed rate cuts this year? Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Financial Market...

Congress struck a deal in March to avert a government shutdown. What did this agreement tell us about the current spending priorities of congress? And how could this impact the economy going forward? With the general election ahead, what are primary voters telling us so far? And how do the financial markets typically behave during elections? Ben Brewster, Nationwide's Vice President of Government...

After a very long tightening cycle, the FOMC is poised to lower the fed funds rate this year. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Chief of Investment Research Mark Hackett share their outlook for when rates could go down and how this could impact investment strategies.[NFM-22911M8]

What’s the current state of the housing market? When could the limited supply of existing homes improve? How has this limited supply impacted the new home market? Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber share their outlook for the housing market. [NFM - 22911AO]

Month-over-month inflation unexpectedly rose in January. What's driving this increase? How could this impact the Fed's decision to lower rates? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin unpack January's CPI report and provide their outlook for the months ahead. [NFM - 22911AO]

The economy added 353,000 new jobs in January — much higher than expected. With many economists forecasting a recession this year, how much longer can the job market stay this resilient? Or are the odds of a soft landing starting to increase? Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the surprising strength of the job market. [NFM-22911AO]

The Fed held rates steady at its January meeting but laid some groundwork towards pulling back its restrictive policy stance later this year. When do we expect to see lower rates? How much could they fall? Nationwide's financial market economist Oren Klachkin and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their analysis of January's FOMC meeting and discuss their outlook for monetary policy. [NFM-22911AO]

Nationwide's senior economist Ben Ayers and economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their analysis to the stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP report. How far will this momentum carry into 2024 and what are the current odds of a recession this year? [NFM-22911AO]

CPI surprised to the upside in December and core inflation continues to come in at a solid clip due to rising services costs. This creates a quandary for the Fed as it looks to lower interest rates at some point this year. How long until we see consumer inflation return to pre-pandemic trends? Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the December CPI rep...

Nationwide’s Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin discuss December's jobs data and the outlook for hiring this year. What sectors or regions are experiencing the most growth? How could the most recent jobs report impact the Fed's decision to lower rates? [NFM-22911AO]

What could the economy look like in 2024, especially with a potential recession looming? How could the labor market and consumer spending be impacted? What's the likelihood that the Fed could lower interest rates this year? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, Senior Economist Ben Ayers, and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin provide their 2024 outlook for the economy and financial...

Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Head of Enterprise Portfolio Management Leo Svoboda react to the FOMC's recent announcement and press conference from their December meeting. Kathy and Leo provide their outlook for interest rates and Treasury yields in 2024. [NFM - 22911AO]

It was a newsworthy year for the auto market with widespread strikes disrupting new car production and loan rates rising to highest levels in more than 20 years. As we look ahead to 2024, how will a potential recession impact demand for autos and what could that mean for prices for buyers? Nationwide’s Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber discuss the current and future outlook...

How are companies like Nationwide using AI today? How could AI further improve productivity? Nationwide's Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer Jim Fowler and Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic discuss the growth of AI and its potential impact on the economy. [NFM-22911M7] Follow Jim and Kathy for updates on this and other related topics. Jim Fowler: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james...

Inflation is easing and consumers continue to spend. But this may not lead to a soft landing as some pundits are calling for. Nationwide’s Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin provide their thoughts on recent inflation and consumer data as we near the biggest shopping day of the year. [NFM - 22911AO]

What are the domestic and global conflicts we should be watching right now - and how could they impact the U.S. economy? Ben Brewster, Nationwide’s Vice President of Government Relations, and Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, share their insight and perspectives on recent domestic and geopolitical events. [NFM-22911M6]

Rates were kept steady at November's FOMC meeting, but Chair Powell made it clear that further tightening is still on the table for future meetings. What factors could swing the Fed to raise rates again and what expectations do we have for Fed policy in 2024? Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic, and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their insight and analysis. [NFM-22911AO]

Real GDP growth accelerated sharply in the third quarter as consumers spent broadly and the economy continued to defy expectations. How long can consumers keep this up? How does the strong GDP report alter our outlook for a recession in 2024? Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin discuss third-quarter growth and our outlook for the months ahead. [NFM - 22911AO]

In part two of this two-part podcast, Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the current economic backdrop and examine the likelihood that we’ll see a soft landing over the next year. [NFM - 22911AO]

In part one of this two-part podcast, Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss soft landings and how they are different than recessions. What could happen after a soft landing? How could the financial markets react? [NFM - 22911AO]

The amount of job gains in September was more than double the consensus forecast, which is too hot for the financial market's liking. However, wage growth continues to moderate, which hints at a silver lining. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin provide their analysis of the labor market and how it could impact the overall economic outlook. [N...

The rise in mortgage rates have had a predictable effect on home sales – which have been plummeting since the beginning of 2022. What else could be straining the housing market? When should we expect for things to turn around? Nationwide’s Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber discuss the factors affecting the housing market and when conditions may improve. [NFM-22911AO]

The FOMC held rates steady at its September meeting but kept a tightening bias for the remainder of the year. The Fed also signaled that monetary policy could remain restrictive well into 2024 and maybe even into 2025. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the Fed's economic outlook and the possibility of a soft landing. [NFM - 22911AO]