Economic Insights by Nationwide

Rising inflation, aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, and back-to-back quarterly declines in real gross domestic product have given rise to fears that the U.S. economy could soon enter into its first recession since the outset of the pandemic in 2020. (*) What is a recession and how do we know if we're in one? (*) How often do recessions occur and how long can they last? (*) How are jobs and pr...

This month's employment report provided some very strong numbers, which casts more doubt on recessionary concerns today. But how long can this continue? Could the slowing economy have an impact on future job gains? How could a strong job market accelerate the Fed's plans to tighten monetary policy? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a closer look at the t...

In the July FOMC meeting, the Fed announced an increase of interest rates by three quarters of a percent, the second time in as many months. How much higher could the Fed raise rates? How could this help to slow down inflation? How could the markets react to this increase? And could a recession be on the horizon? Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provi...

Weather events continue to capture the headlines, as Europe and southern states in the U.S. are suffering an unprecedented heat wave this month. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center recently estimated that there is a 66 percent chance that La Nina conditions will prevail in the Northern hemisphere until at least the end of 2022, which would mark the third straight year of this...

As we enter the second half of the year, several economic indicators are disappointing. And we're likely to see a second consecutive quarter with a decline in GDP. Are we in a recession now…or are we likely to go into one in the near term? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a closer look at other economic indicators and provide their perspectives on the c...

Go beyond the pages of the quarterly Nationwide Market Insights (NMI) with Bryan Jordan, Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist. In this podcast, Bryan provides additional perspective and commentary regarding key pages. [NFM-20130AO.40] To view the quarterly report while you listen to this podcast, visit nationwidefinancial.com/economics

Economic growth in 2022 has been weaker than expected, mostly from lingering supply shocks and inflation, as well as the negative impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a significant slowdown in the world economy. Could a recession be on the horizon? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson, Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan, and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their mid-year perspec...

In the June FOMC meeting, the Fed announced an increase of interest rates by three quarters of a percent, the largest increase in nearly 30 years. How much higher could the Fed raise rates? How could this help to slow down inflation? Could a recession be on the horizon? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan provide their perspectives on the Fed's announc...

The employment report for May showed how tight the labor market remains. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a closer look at current employment conditions and how they're impacting inflation and the overall economy — and whether or not a wage-price spiral has begun. [NFM-20130AO.37]

The stock market has been under pressure throughout 2022, with the benchmark S&P 500 index recently flirting with its first bear market in two years. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the stock market and its connection to the broader economy. Does a bear market indicate a recession? How do stock prices tend to behave in recessions? [NFM-20130A...

This week's data on consumer spending and industrial production sheds light on the health of our economy, which is still being impacted by the pandemic and geopolitical shocks. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan take a closer look at recent data, including Retail Sales and Industrial Production. How has inflation impacted overall sentiment? Does the c...

The recent CPI report shows that inflation is still at record levels, but at a slightly lower level than the previous month's report. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a closer look at the CPI report. What sectors are being impacted the most? Where do we see some relief? How is this cycle different than previous inflations? And what's the outlook...

April's Employment Report revealed the continued strength of the job market, which is still recovering from the record job losses resulting from the pandemic. How long can this trend continue and what does this say about the overall economy? And what does this mean for the Fed, which again raised rates this week with the hopes to slow down inflation. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and S...

The first-quarter GDP report provided a disappointing reflection of the economy, but this slowdown should prove to be temporary. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their perspectives on the GDP report. How does it change our outlook on the overall economy? Is a recession on the horizon, or could we see a bounce-back later this year? [NFM-20130AO...

The Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2018, with the expectation to raise rates again at their next meeting in May. How high could they go? And long-term rates have moved up significantly as well. How high could they go? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their outlook on interest rates for the months and years ahead and the impacts it...

CPI data came out this week and showed that inflation is the highest in 40 years. What's causing prices to increase? What sectors are impacted the most? When could the current rise in inflation start to peak? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers dig into the recent CPI report, as well as other inflation measures, and provide their outlook on when things could im...

In March, the FOMC raised rates for the first time in over three years. They released their minutes from that meeting this week which sheds additional light on the potential for further tightening this year. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan share their outlook on further tightening, how it will impact inflation and the overall economy, and whether o...

Go beyond the pages of the quarterly Nationwide Market Insights (NMI) with Bryan Jordan, Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist. In this podcast, Bryan provides additional perspective and commentary regarding key pages. To view the quarterly report while you listen to this podcast, visit nationwidefinancial.com/economics

With Omicron cases diminishing in the U.S., the service industry stands to make strong gains in 2022. This is welcome news to the economy, which has been hit by the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and high inflation. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their outlook on the economy in this post-Omicron phase and what sectors will benefi...

The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in over three years, with the focus on slowing down inflation. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan provide their perspectives on the Fed’s actions….can it slow down inflation…how could it impact economic growth…and what’s the outlook for additional tightening ahead...and could it lead to a recession? [NF...

Inflation continues to weigh on the economy, which just started to recover from broken supply chains, but is now being hit by the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their analysis of the recent CPI report, what's driving inflation up, and when conditions may improve. [NFM-20130AO.25]

February's employment report provides very strong numbers across all sectors. This positive news runs in sharp contrast to major geopolitical events that are pushing inflation higher and could put a strain on the overall economy. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a close look at the improving labor market and their outlook for the economy and the financi...

Rising inflation and growth concerns (and perhaps the dreaded term stagflation) due to the lingering pandemic, and the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine have impacted equity markets and consumer confidence/sentiment. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan focus on the recent volatility in the financial markets. They also provide their outlook on the ove...

Despite the Omicron surge and rising mortgage rates, demand for housing remained very strong for January, as seen by solid data for housing starts and existing home sales. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers share their outlook of the housing market and the overall economy for 2022. [NFM-20130AO.22]

Inflation continues to increase with little signs of any slowdown. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers share their insight on inflation, what is driving the increase, and their outlook on the months ahead - including their expectations for fed policy. [NFM-20130AO.21]