CommBank View: Economics & Markets

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the key drivers of currency markets this week including important tariff news and the Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy announcements.      Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of...

There was a steady stream of data this week headlined by retail trade and the ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator. The data was broadly mixed but taken in totality, the Australian consumer remains subdued. Elsewhere, home prices increased again in June and there was a rebound in building approvals. In this week's podcast, economists Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley talk through this data and pr...

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including US trade negotiations, US labour market data and the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey.        Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 1...

A benign monthly CPI print for May led us to bring forward our next RBA rate cut forecast to July. Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley from the Australian Economics team run through the details of the change in call as well as deep dive into the CPI print.   Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the C...

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week including the conflict in the Middle East, the annual NATO summit as well as the Bank of Japan’s interest rate outlook.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of A...

The labour force survey was broadly a non-event, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. The final key data point ahead of the July RBA Board meeting is due next week: the monthly CPI indicator. Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley discuss the key takeaways from this week and preview the upcoming inflation data.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed...

  Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the key influences on currencies this week include conflict in the Middle East and meetings by the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123...

It was quieter week for Aussie economy data this week with private sector releases dominating. The CommBank HSI as well as updates on business and consumer sentiment continue to point to subdued economic conditions in Australia. Next week, the May labour force survey is in focus.    ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic &...

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss insights from Kristina’s note on trade diversion   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR d...

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including US consumer price index for May, UK labour market data and US-China trade talks.     Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124...

It was an important week with the RBA minutes and Q1 25 GDP data released. The RBA minutes retained a dovish tone and economic growth disappointed keeping a July rate cut very much in play.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 12...

In this week’s episode Joseph Capurso and Kristina Clifton discuss the likely drivers of currencies this week including tariffs, US economic data and the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada interest rate announcements.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth B...

The week saw the release of the April CPI which showed an unchanged print at 2.4% rather than a fall. Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu discuss why it was stronger than expected and what it means for the RBA. Retail trade disappointed and the building blocks for GDP were also released. Next week all eyes will be on Q1 25 GDP and the RBA Minutes for May.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This pod...

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including higher tariffs on Europe, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and Canadian GDP data.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN...

The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bp to 3.85% on Tuesday. The post-meeting communication was more dovish than most expected. In this week's podcast, Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley from the Australian Economics team discuss at the decision itself and what it means for the prospect of future rate cuts.  ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by Globa...

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets, including the US government’s credit rating downgrade, the Group of Seven finance ministers meeting and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the...

It was a big week of data with wages and labour force printing above economist expectations, but in line with RBA forecasts. Belinda Allen and Gareth Aird wrap up the week and then turn their attention to the May RBA Board Meeting. A 25bp rate cut is expected.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“G...

Join CBA’s Head of International and Sustainability Economics, Joseph Capurso, and Currency Strategist and China Specialist, Carol Kong, as they delve into the latest on trade wars and economics.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 1...

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences on the Australian dollar this week including the US CPI, Australian labour market data and US trade developments.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL...

This week, CBA economist Harry Ottley discusses the economic implications of Labor's election victory with Chief Economist Luke Yeaman. Luke takes a deep dive into Labor's economic mandate for the next term, current economic conditions, and key challenges ahead. Senior Economist Stephen Wu then joins the podcast to review this week's key data flow and preview the important week ahead. Disclaimer: ...

Joseph Capurso and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including possible trade deals, the Federal Reserve’s meeting and the Bank of England’s meeting.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123...

This week, Stephen Wu and Gareth Aird discuss the March quarter inflation numbers and what it means for the upcoming May RBA Board meeting.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to th...

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top three influences on currency markets this week including US economic data, the Australian CPI and the Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123...

The S&P Global PMI was the lone domestic release out last week but the week ahead is much busier. The highlight will be the Q1 2025 CPI which CBA Research believe will rubber stamp an interest rate cut in May.  Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Austr...

It was a quieter week in financial markets. Locally the highlight was the March labour force release showing an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Digging deeper though there are signs the labour market is cooling. The RBA Minutes highlight growing global concerns but local economic data over the next month will be important. The Minutes note May will be an opportune time to revist policy.   Disclaimer: ...