Casual Friday: Financial Insights

Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) provide individuals with an opportunity to save for retirement on a tax-advantaged basis. Traditional IRAs allow contributions to be made on a pre-tax basis, meaning that contributions are tax-deductible in the year they are made. However, distributions from traditional IRAs are subject to income tax in retirement.  On the other hand, Roth IRAs allow contribut...

Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com This week Brian talks about how March was a volatile month, but seasonality patterns prevailed, as stocks stuck to the script of back half outperformance. April seasonality trends suggest the melt up could continue. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted average and median April returns of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. Historical return progressions...

This week we get down to business and talk all things Federal Reserve. As we expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the fed funds rate by 0.25%, pushing the upper bound to 5.00%. Financial conditions were stable enough for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to release updated projections, unlike the Fed’s decision back in March 2020 to delay updated projections due to financial instabili...

This week we're joined by  Joe Perry , loan consultant and mortgage expert, to talk rates, mortgages, housing, and Voltron. Check out this week's "Casual Friday"! Joe Perry: https://www.therealjoeperry.com/ YouTube Webcast: https://youtu.be/dyw5TQvzFig Tracking #421267-1 Send in your questions!

In the overused airplane analogy for the economy, suggesting an economy makes “no landing” makes no sense. Analogies eventually break down, and this one is no different.  Economic activity doesn't stop like an airplane eventually does. Instead, the economy settles into a steady state where growth is consistent with factors such as population and productivity. Today, Brian looks at some factor...

This week Brian discusses the Conference Board’s latest Leading Economic Index (LEI), which was released Friday, February 17, 2023. The LEI is an aggregate of 10 economic and market indicators that tend to lead changes in economic activity. The index declined 0.3% for the month and 5.9% for the past year, a slight improvement from the one-year change the previous month. Despite some signs of impro...

This week Brian discusses the debt limit—commonly called the debt ceiling— which is the maximum amount of debt the Treasury Department is authorized to borrow to pay its already committed financial obligations.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently released a statement projecting that the ability of these extraordinary measures to be effective would be exhausted between July and Septembe...

This week Brian discusses how cash, and other cash equivalent investments, now offer decent yields for savers and the risk adverse. However, economists like to remind us there is no such thing as a free lunch. In investment parlance, that just means all investments carry risk—even cash.  Chart 1 Chart 2 Tracking 1-05360618 Send in your questions!

This week Nik and Brian get together on the Casual Friday webcast to review a couple of charts relating to mortgage applications and earnings season.... and then dig into the important stuff like how Super Bowl results and market returns correlate (or not)! Send in your questions!

At the end of January, spotlight will shift from earnings to the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week as they wrap up their 2-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, February 1. This wee Brian discusses how market expectations are set for an increase of 25 basis points (bps) in the fed funds rate, which would shift the Fed’s target range up to 4.50%–4.75% from 4.25%–4.50%. There will be no updated Su...

We finally made it to the end of 2022! Today marks the last day of trading for a  challenging year for equity and fixed income markets.  Surging inflation, unprecedented global monetary policy tightening, China’s battle with COVID-19, rising recession fears, and the Russia-Ukraine war have been a few of the major headwinds.  The arduous backdrop has underpinned a 19.2% loss for the S&P 500 as...

Is hope an investing strategy? No, but as November draws to a close, many investors are hoping some holiday cheer in stock markets and a potential December rally.  In this episode Brian takes a look at what clues seasonality data may give us for stock market performance in December. It turns out that while, historically, December has been a very strong month for stocks, in recent years seasonality...

"Yield Curve Inversion Reaches New Extremes" was the eye opening headline from the Wall Street Journal this week, and it certainly grabs attention and probably leads to some investor panic. But what does "yield curve inversion" actually mean for you as an investor, and exactly which yield curve is the better predictor of recessions? This week Brian tackles what you need to know...

This week we're joined by Joe Perry, a loan officer with Precision Home Loans, who gives a honest assessment of where the housing market, mortgage rates, and housing generally stand in light of recent interest rate increases. If you have questions for Joe from this episode, you can find him at www.therealjoeperry.com. Send in your questions!

This week Brian discusses how the Federal Reserve (Fed) ended its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week and the outcome was broadly in line with market expectations. As expected, the Committee raised short-term interest rates by 0.75% to take the fed funds rate to 4.0% (upper bound). However, during the press conference, Powell suggested he sees rates higher than expected...

This week Brian talks about how, after two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% annualized rate in the third quarter, driven by a resilient consumer sector. Real personal spending, roughly 70% of the economy, grew 1.4% annualized, slightly slower than the previous quarter. LPL Chart of the Day Tracking # 1-05341645 Send in your questions!

The core bond index (as defined by the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index) is seeing losses unlike any year since its inception. Core bonds are down nearly 16% this year and this year’s losses have wiped out five years of gains for the index.  Because bonds operate differently from stocks, this week Brian reviews how long it might take to recover this year’s losses LPL Chart of possible bond returns T...

Just like muscle fatigue is part of any intense training program, volatility is an unavoidable part of the investment process. It’s easy for investors to forget that volatility is the norm, not the exception. This week Brian addresses 5 ways to handle volatility as an investor.  Tracking ID: 1-05322459 Send in your questions!

Ryan, Brian, and Nik discuss the terrible end to the third quarter of 2022, which gave the S&P 500 its 3rd straight quarterly loss, the worst month since March 2020, and the worst September since 2008! Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Cr...

This week Brian discusses how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased the target rate by 75 basis points to a 3.25% upper bound and delivered a more pessimistic outlook in their published Summary of Economic Projections . Chart: Aggressive Hikes Taming Inflation Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com...

Since 1978, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has played host to central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world at its annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This year’s symposium is titled “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy,” and it takes place from Thursday to Saturday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell headlines the event. We don’t yet know...

Like most people, you're likely to change jobs several times during your working life. And you'll likely have a 401(k) account through your former employer to deal with. This week, Brian talks about four options for what to do with an old 401(k) account. Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com Music: Co...

CLICK HERE to view the Midyear Outlook Presentation Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license . Source .  This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendat...

This week, Brian talks about how a historically weak quarter, six months, and year for stocks, bonds, and the two combined is now behind us.  With stocks and bonds both showing weakness, not surprisingly a 60/40 balanced portfolio that combines the two has also shown weakness. ASince 1976 (the inception of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), the second quarter of 2022 was the fifth worst for...

Last week the Federal Reserve announced its first 0.75% move since November 1994. The possibility of a 0.75% hike seemed unlikely even a week ago, but an upside surprise in the latest reading of Consumer Price Index (CPI) index inflation, released on Friday, June 10, changed everything as short-term yields soared and market-implied rate hike expectations climbed higher. This week Brian talks about...