Casual Friday: Financial Insights

This week Ryan and Brian review LPL Research's 2024 outlook for stocks, bonds and the economy, and give there take on what could be ahead. LPL Research 2024 Outlook: https://bit.ly/3RKkZXG Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fordfinancialgroup Subscribe on Apple Podcasts (or wherever you listen to podcasts): https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Click here for Ryan's chart: htt...

This week Ryan and Brian talk about how both stocks and bonds have been accelerating into the end of the year, though there may be reason to temper your optimism for 2024. Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fordfinancialgroup Subscribe on Apple Podcasts (or wherever you listen to podcasts): https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Click here for Ryan's chart: https://twitter.com/bianc...

In this episode, we dive deep into the world of Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs). Join us as we explore how QCDs can be a tax-savvy way to support your favorite charitable causes while benefiting your retirement savings. Brian shares valuable insights and practical tips to help you navigate this powerful financial strategy. A qualified charitable distribution (QCD) is a tax-free donation...

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fordfinancialgroup Subscribe on Apple Podcasts (or wherever you listen to podcasts): https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Questions? Email us at info@FordFG.com Web: FordFG.com The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance...

Bonus episode time! This week Brian discusses how tax bracket thresholds and Social Security benefits are adjusted for inflation. Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fordfinancialgroup Subscribe on Apple Podcasts (or wherever you listen to podcasts): https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Questions? Email us at info@FordFG.com Web: FordFG.com The opinions voiced in this material are f...

This week Ryan and Brian talk about how the positive year to date performance of the S&P 500 has been driven by just a few stocks, and how a bear & bull market chart might be able to tell us when the S&P 500 could return to all time highs is in store for the US economy. Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fordfinancialgroup Subscribe on Apple Podcasts (or wherever you listen to...

This week Ryan and Brian talk about how AI has the potential to radically change the profitability of certain industries, and how economists polled by the Wall Street Journal are now evenly mixed on whether a recession is in store for the US economy. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts (or wherever you listen to podcasts) Click here for Ryan's chart Click here for Brian's chart And the Wall Stre...

This week Ryan and Brian talk about how bond yields have shot higher recently, and how stock and bond markets have taken a beating as a result. Click here to register for FFG's October 17th Webinar Subscribe on Apple Podcasts (or wherever you listen to podcasts) Click here for Ryan's chart Click here for CNN's Fear and Greed Index Seasonality chart referenced by Brian from All Star...

This week Ryan and Brian talk about the performance of US Tech firms versus tech internationally, and also review past market performance during US Government shutdowns. Subscribe on Amazon Prime Music (or wherever you listen to podcasts) Click here for Ryan's chart Click here for Brian's 1st chart Click here for Brian's 2nd chart Questions? Email us at info@FordFG.com Web: FordFG.c...

This week Brian and Ryan talk about the seasonal performance of markets and how August and September can tend to be difficult months of the year. They also cover the recent news of the OPEC+ extended cuts and how the news has caused oil prices to shoot higher. Seasonality Charts: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/this-is-normal/ https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research Oil Chart...

This week Brian and Ryan talk more about "back to school," and the impacts of inflation on school materials and spending by families. They also cover the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, or "LEI," and how it is clearly declaring that a recession is on the way. They finish up with a discussion on streaming services and their increases in cost (is it actually cheap...

This week Ryan and Brian discuss how July's non-farm payrolls grew by 187,000, slightly below consensus, with a slight increase from June's revised figure of 185,000. Unemployment rate decreased to 3.5% from the previous 3.6%, while labor force participation remained at 62.6% for the fifth consecutive month. They also covered how Fitch downgraded U.S. government debt from AAA to AA+ due...

This week Joe and Brian discuss how weird the housing market is right now, and reference data from Redfin. Click here: Redfin Downloadable Housing Market Data Find Joe Perry here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joe-perry-54428921/ Send in your questions!

This week Brian discusses how expanding market breadth and renewed hope for an economic soft landing have recently pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average to new 52-week highs, and how the breakout on both indices has produced a Dow Theory buy signal also adds to the evidence that the primary trend of the broader market is higher. Chart: Dow Returns After Win S...

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This week Brian reviews the first half of 2023 and discusses how it was a bit of a shocker for investors and analysts, as the S&P 500 powered through, giving an impressive 8.7% return in the second quarter, inclusive of dividends. This surge set up a first-half gain of a whopping 16.9%, which hasn't been seen since 2019. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq skyrocketed to a first-half gain of more than...

This week Ryan is finally back, and Brian and Ryan cover a variety of topics, including how markets are ripping as we finish the first half of the year, issues with the federal deficit, the rate of Fed rate increases, pickleball injuries, and what Brian is doing to teach his kids about money. Ryan Detrick's June Chart HERE Visual Capitalist Debt Ceiling Chart HERE Visual Capitalist Rate Incre...

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept rates unchanged at its meeting last week but communicated a hawkish bias to future interest rate decisions. This week Brian talks about how the FOMC statement was modestly hawkish but still communicated to investors that the committee is data-dependent when “determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate.” (emp...

If we assume recession is coming fairly soon, though it will likely be short and shallow, then what does that mean for stocks? This week Brian looks at recessions back to the early 1970s to see how the S&P 500 Index performed during the 12, six, and three months before those economic downturns began. On average, six months before, the index has fallen 1.4%, though the median is slightly positi...

This week Brian discussed how both longer-term Treasury yields and short-term Treasury yields tend to decline during recessions, but the effect is larger and more consistent with short-term Treasuries. Over the last eight recessions, the median maximum yield decline for the 3-month Treasury was 2.82% and 1.14% for the 10-year Treasury. With an attractive yield compared to recent history and prospe...

Yesterday was the 100th trading day of 2023, and a productive 100 days for stocks it was. Through that 100th trading day on May 25, about 40% of the way through the year, the S&P 500 Index has gained a solid 8.1% (excluding dividends). This week Brian discusses how that milestone on the calendar seems like a good time to look at what the strong start to the year might mean for the rest of 2023...

This week Brian and Ryan talk about how time is running out for Congress to raise the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned lawmakers that the government may not be able to service its debt by June 1. The fixed income market continues to show signs of concern over a potential technical default. Credit default swap (CDS) rates for U.S. government debt have roughly doubled over th...

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This week Brian and Ryan got together to review the long and short views on markets... what is going on right now and how worried should investors be in light of bank failures and a looming recession, and what happens when we pull the lens back and look at what markets do over much longer periods. The long and short views paint much different pictures.   Send in your questions!

With recession risks getting more attention in the wake of the FOMC minutes’ release, Brian highlights some important characteristics of market behavior around recessions and some unusual features of the current market if a recession were to be on the horizon.   Tracking # 1-05366963 Send in your questions!