Casual Friday: Financial Insights

In this bonus episode, Brian discusses some of the questions asked of him in a recent interview relating to the stock market drop, bear markets, recessions, inflation, and interest rates. Check out the interview here:  CBS47 Interview Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin M...

Stocks rallied hard the prior week week, as the S&P 500 Index broke a seven week losing streak in resounding fashion; its 6.6% gain was the best since November 2020. That strong response from equities, following one of the worst starts to the year ever, has many investors questioning, “Was that the low?” While we are certainly open to that possibility, Brian takes a look at why the technical p...

While the S&P 500 Index has not officially entered bear market territory, plenty of areas of the market have. This week, Brian talks about how the consumer discretionary sector is one of them with a 35% drop from its November 2021 high. And as we heard from some of the biggest retailers during earnings season, the outlook is only getting tougher as energy prices soar and supply chain problems...

It’s been a tough year so far for a traditional “60/40” portfolio, a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Using the S&P 500 Index and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) to represent stocks and bonds, the traditional 60/40 is down 14.0% as of market close on May 11 on a total return basis, which would trail only 2008 as the worst year on record if that’s where we ended the year,...

Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license . Source . Tracking ID: 1-05274297, 1-05277718 Send in your questions!

This week Brian gets down to business and talks about the likelihood of a recession this year. Not all recessions are created equal. Previous downturns in the U.S. were prompted by various shocks, with the most recent recession started by health and government-induced shutdowns. Other recessions started in the corporate sector, whereas some started from commodity shocks. The next one could start f...

For the third straight week, the U.S. market indexes finished lower as the continued Eastern European conflict along with inflation concerns renewed investor worries about future corporate profits.  This week Brian recaps the difficult April for markets, and how bonds may not be offering the protection some investors are looking for. Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube...

The US Labor Department reported this week that the March 2022 inflation metrics soared to highs last seen in December 1981.  After rising 1.2% from a month ago, prices are now 8.5% above last year and over 11% above March 2020. This week Brian discussed what categories in the inflation report could lead the way on bringing these eye-popping numbers back down. Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford...

One of the biggest stories over the past few weeks has been the inversion of various points on the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The more well-known 2-year/10-year yield curve spread inverted on April 1, 2022 for the first time since 2019, while the 5-year/30-year inverted for the first time since 2006 on March 28. What is a yield curve? The yield curve plots the yield of different maturity bonds, us...

This week, Brian first talks about how stocks have rallied back nicely over the past couple of weeks, with the S&P 500 up more than 10% off its March 14 low. While some would suggest that the market is sniffing out a potential compromise to end Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine, which is certainly possible, that’s probably not the whole story. Corporate profits may be another element of...

Core fixed income returns are off to one of the worst starts to a year ever.  However, this week Brian discusses one of the positive characteristics of many fixed income investments is that we have a fairly good idea what to expect out of prospective fixed income returns and that is starting yields. Also, after their recent rebound, stocks are only down about 6% from record highs in January based...

This week Ryan and Brian connected to talk about Russia and the war in Ukraine, oil and gas prices, and what might be in store from the Fed next week.  Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license . Source . Tracking...

With all eyes on the war in Ukraine, we continue to pray for the safety of the Ukrainian people and the sovereignty of their nation. It’s a tough time to talk economics and markets, but that’s what you come here for so we’ll continue to do our best to help investors make the best possible decisions during these difficult and uncertain times. Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on...

Global stock markets are selling off hard after Russian military forces attacked a broad range of targets across Ukraine last night while Russian President Putin vowed to replace Ukraine’s government. Brian talks about what it might mean for stocks and the economy? Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.com Email us at info@fordfg.com Music: C...

One of the most popular questions we’ve received lately is what could happen in the upcoming midterm election? Although we are a long way away from Election Day, it is important to note that a new president has historically lost about 30 House seats in the midterm election. This week Brian discusses how, with the Democrats holding a historically small majority in the House currently, a swing this...

Should we be surprised at inflation surprises at this point? This week Brian discusses how the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most well known measure of inflation, climbed 7.5% over the last year through January, its highest reading since 1982, according to data released this morning by the Labor Department. Also, we talk technicals for the S&P 500, and whether a retest of the lows forthcomin...

There’s an old adage on Wall Street that suggests, “As goes January, so goes the year,” and it has an impressive track record.  Simply put, when the first month of the year was green, it bodes well for the rest of the year (and vice versa). This week, Brian talks about how worried investors should be, given stocks closed red in January. Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouT...

Have we reached the peak in new COVID-19 cases in the United States linked to the Omicron variant, and how is its rapid spread affecting U.S. consumer behavior? This week we look to high-frequency data for early clues and see that Omicron appears to be moderating behavior in a similar way that Delta did in the fall of 2021. Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions...

The Casual Friday webcast made it's return this week, where Eric and Brian reviewed 4 interesting charts from the week, including charts examining the low volatility of last year, the new record high on the first day of the year, the presidential cycle, and whether Tom Brady is actually a good predictor of market returns. If you missed the webcast, click below to subscribe on our Facebook and...

Fixed income investors aren’t used to negative total returns for core fixed income (as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) but that's exactly what happened in 2021. Last year, rising interest rates were a headwind to bond prices that more than offset the positive returns from coupon income. As such, the index was down -1.5% for the year, which was only the fourth negative ret...

During the early COVID economic recovery we’ve had a helping hand from fiscal and monetary policy that saw us through a period of unique challenges. In our 2022 Outlook, Brian discusses how the economy may be ready for a handoff, back to a greater emphasis on the choices of households and businesses. Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.com...

The Federal Reserve (Fed) ended its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yesterday and there were some notable shifts to monetary policy. Although these shifts were largely expected by markets, this week Brian explains how the shift was a bit more hawkish than some investors anticipated. Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Financial Group on YouTube Questions? Find us at FordFG.c...

This week Brian discusses how, after 29 consecutive days without a single 1% move higher or lower for the S&P 500 Index, news of Omicron broke the Friday after Thanksgiving and as a result, five consecutive days saw at least a 1% move up or down. Clearly Omicron and the uncertainty it brought with it showed everyone that stocks can’t stay calm forever. Ford Financial Group on Facebook Ford Fin...

After an upside inflation surprise in October, it’s clear that peak inflation may still be ahead, possibly even pushing into 2022. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its position that elevated inflation will be transitory, we have yet to see progress. This week Brian looks at five signs to watch for over the next several months that may signal that inflation may be near or at its peak. Ford...

The latest inflation (CPI) numbers surprised to the upside, creating more headaches for the Fed on how, and when, to respond. It’s looking more and more likely that ‘sticky’ rent inflation, increasing strength in the labor market, continuing supply chain disruptions, and increasing consumer demand could now push the Fed’s ‘transitory’ timeframe well into 2022. This week Ryan and Brian dig in on wh...