Bondcast - The Rates Podcast

This week Imogen Bachra and Jan Nevruzi dissect US inflation figures and look ahead to a Fed meeting that promises an update on Quantitative Tightening policy, among other things. Will it be enough to upset the relative calm of late and move markets? They also analyse what may happen next week in the UK and look at whether the European Central Bank is still expected to cut rates in June.     Remem...

This week Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi share key takeaways from recent events in the UK, Europe and the US. At the European Central Bank, did new inflation figures give a better indication of when it might cut rates? In the UK, a predictable Spring Budget yielded little drama for markets, while in the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress.     Remember to hit ‘...

This week Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi are joined by special guest Ross Walker to look ahead to the UK Spring Budget on 6 March. While Chancellor Jeremy Hunt may decide to reduce some taxes, the country's modest fiscal headroom means there is little likelihood of a dramatic financial policy change. Elsewhere, they discuss personal consumption expenditure data in the US, and inflation figure...

This week host Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam discuss their views on policy developments in UK and European bond markets. In the former, fiscal headroom may not have a dramatic affect on gilt issuances, even as the market is becoming more retail friendly. In Europe, the European Central Bank is growing wary of cutting rates too early, while PMI data suggests a deviation between German and France...

In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam debrief after a big data week in the UK and US and discuss the impact on our rates outlook. They also take a closer look at some new thinking published this week around the ECB’s operational framework.        Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon a...

This week Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam discuss how their views on the market differ from the businesses they have been speaking with recently. In the UK, the data appears to support our modestly hawkish view, while in the US non-farm payroll data suggests the Fed will hold rates for now. In Europe, could French sovereign spreads be too tight, and Spanish too wide? For Italy, it&ap...

Major central banks have been somewhat taciturn about the prospect of rate cutting, so did that change during the past week? Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam analyse recent events, data and market views in a week when the Fed and the Bank of England held rates - and explained their decisions to do so. In Europe, inflation appears to be falling faster than the European Central Bank&apo...

Join host Imogen Bachra, dovish Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they analyse the effect that central bank moves are having on bond markets. In Europe, markets seemed to have reacted strongly to a somewhat benign meeting at the European Central Bank, while in the US, all eyes are on the Fed's meeting next week. Could we see a substantial change in the policy statement? In the UK, meanwhile,...

Join Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they discuss how recent jobs and inflation data is affecting markets. In the UK, slightly higher than expected inflation news spurred a sell-off in bonds, while in the US, there was some strong consumer news to contend with. It's been relatively quiet of late in Europe, but there is some speculation that the European Central Bank is becomi...

Join Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they analyse the back and forth of market moves and central bank motions over interest rates. In the US, how will Quantitative Tightening sit with rate cutting? They also discuss the fiscal situation ahead of a likely election in the UK, while in Europe the overall monetary picture is becoming more dovish, amid record levels of supply.         ...

Join Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they examine how markets started 2024. In the US, the Fed is not giving out much new information of when interest rate cuts may begin, though it has released some more detailed notes on quantitative tightening and balance sheet rundown. In the UK, what's driving weakness in gilts, and may stickier core inflation still keep rates higher for...

The Bank of England (BoE), the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) shocked few by collectively holding rates this week, but that doesn’t mean the meetings were without their surprises. Join host Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they discuss how markets reacted to the news, and identify signs of when rates may begin to fall. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so...

...well, maybe not so great, but this week Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam discuss the market mood ahead of announcements by all three of the major central banks: the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England. Elsewhere they talk about events in money market funds and the importance of the overnight rate.  Remember to hit ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the...

Join host Imogen Bachra and guests Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they discuss signs that some central banks may cut their base rates sooner than expected. Could the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) do this as soon as March 2024? Faster falls in inflation in the US and the eurozone raise the possibility. But in the UK? Not so much.     Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen...

Join host Imogen Bachra and guest Joann Spadigam as they discuss how customers have responded to our Year Ahead 2024 report, and analyse the contents of the Autumn Statement. Elsewhere they also look at supply data in the eurozone.   Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find...

The expected divergence of monetary cycles presents both challenges and opportunities for fixed income investors and issuers, especially at a time when fiscal policy remains abundant. Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and Jan Nevruzi outline where they see policy rates heading next year, what this means for the direction of travel for yields and the shape of the curve, and where cross-market opportun...

fter softening employment data was released in the US, host Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi analyse how markets have been reacting to both this news as well as to other events. In the UK, there are expectations for the Autumn Statement to contend with, while in the euro area, markets are pricing close to 100bps for cuts.   Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our l...

As both the Fed and the Bank of England (BoE) held rates this week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to pick over the actions, motives and views held among central banks. How are markets reacting and are worries being alleviated? In Europe, rate cuts may come earlier than previously expected.   Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episode...

Fresh after this week's European Central Bank meeting, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to talk all things rates, bonds and balance sheets. As it turns out, many of the market dramas in recent months have somewhat dissipated, whether that's in the euro area, the UK or the US. So are we in for an extended period of rate holds? Only time, and more importantl...

Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and Jan Nevruzi catch up after another volatile week in rates markets. They digest some of the latest data prints and discuss the potential impact on key central bank decisions in the weeks ahead.   Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. An...

Amid broad consensus that base interest rates have neared their peaks, focus is on when central banks will begin to cut, and by how much. Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi are joined by special guest Ross Walker to discuss rates, economics and yields in the UK, the euro area and the US.   Remember to hit follow so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available....

Bond yields have risen in the past week, especially at the shorter end of curves. Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to discuss whether current levels will persist, especially in the UK. Elsewhere, German bunds have hit our 3% target, and in the US can markets price in messages coming from the Fed?  Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest epis...

The bonds markets have been a bit wild of late, leading to some speculation about oversupply in the market for US treasuries and others to look closely at the euro area market. Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to discuss the effects on both the front and tail ends of yield curves, minimum reserve requirements and developments at the Bank of England.  Remember to hit &...

Neither the Fed or the Bank of England increased rates this week, after last week's dovish hike by the European Central Bank (ECB). Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to discuss the impact of these hawkish holds on markets and the extent of possible cuts in 2024. Will the narrative of 'higher for longer' be challenged? And how may the central banks reduce...

On the back of the European Central Bank's "dovish hike", host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to discuss the impact on markets, and whether the Fed and the Bank of England may follow suit. Behind the question of whether interest rates have hit their peak is how prolonged that peak may be. Will sharp rises be matched by precipitous falls to create an Ever...