Bondcast - The Rates Podcast

This week the Bondcast team unpicks higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index data in the US, and shares where they think rates will go from here. In the UK, recent yield increases have met our targets, but how might upcoming data next week affect the curve? They also debrief on the French Budget and look ahead to the next European Central Bank decision on rates.  This episode was recorded on 10 O...

This week Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam ruminate about rates markets on either side of the Channel. In the UK, markets appear to be waking up to fiscal concerns, and have had to take into account recent remarks from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey. Meanwhile, how might the euro area's falling inflation affect future decisions on rates? Finally, to France, where markets are waiting f...

This week, host Joann Spadigam is joined by Deepika Dayal and Ross Walker to discuss all things rates. In Europe, what is the market's attitude towards October's European Central Bank meeting, and what is happening to spreads in euro-denominated debt? In the UK the Labour conference had analysts pouring over signs for a shift in fiscal policy, while the Fed's focus on employment num...

This week Ross Walker and Kevin Cummins discuss central bank rates decisions in the US and the UK. Markets had all caught up by the time the Fed announced its 50 basis point cut, but remain less certain about further cuts in 2024 and how to interpret employment figures. In the UK, the Bank of England's decision to hold rates was arguably hawkish, but spurred by that familiar bugbear... high s...

With the cutting cycle among major central banks under way, Giovanni Zanni, Kevin Cummins and Paul Robson talk all things rates markets. Ahead of the much anticipated rate decision at the Fed next week, the mood is very much for a 25 basis point (bp) cut in the US – even if the door is open just enough to allow for 50. In the UK, the next decision on rates seems more finely balanced following a cl...

In an early ode to autumn, our Bondcast trio predict a season of missed targets and not-so-mellow economic conditions. This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to catch up on how late summer’s fruitful developments have affected bond markets, and where they go from here. In the US, all eyes are on jobs numbers and whether the Fed will cut in 50 or 25bp clips. And...

It’s been a big week for rates markets. Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and Kevin Cummins dig into the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, and whether markets are right to expect a cut as soon as September. Speaking of cuts, we take a closer look at the Bank of England’s decision to trim 25 basis points off the Bank Rate – the first cut in 4 years – and what that means for UK...

Joe Biden’s withdrawal from this year’s presidential race means “Veep” Kamala Harris will likely face Donald Trump. How are markets affected? This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Joann Spadigam to discuss not only US politics, but the run-up to another finely-balanced interest rates decision in the UK and the impact of pension reform in France.  This episode was recorded on...

Not so good news for the doves on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, as persistent services inflation may yet stall an August rate cut. This week Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam read the runes on UK and European markets, and share their views on yield curves. This episode was recorded on 18 July 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporate...

This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by Kevin Cummins to talk rates news in Europe and the US. With more good data on inflation, might the Fed change its stance on when to reduce rates? Maybe, maybe not, but with more data on the way, it can bide its time. In France, what does the latest round of election news mean for euro spreads?   Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or...

While the UK election results lit few fireworks for markets, the same can’t be said of political events elsewhere. This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Joann Spadigam to talk about the fiscal challenge facing the UK, in the US how betting markets view a Joe Biden victory (or drop-out) amid many permutations, and in France what we can expect from the second round of voti...

Ahead of elections in France and the UK, how are markets pricing in possible outcomes? This week Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam consider how bonds are being affected and what clues markets are looking for. While they’re confident that a Labour victory has been priced in to current spreads, across the channel there is far less certainty about the eventual political outcome.   This episode was rec...

With inflation now at its target, what were the prospects that the Bank of England would cut its base rate? Not much, according to Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam, who this week look at both the reasons for a hold, and whether the Monetary Policy Committee is becoming just a bit more dovish. Hint: it is. Away from the UK, they cover elections in France and Germany’s Q3 funding update.   This epis...

This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Deepika Dayal and Joann Spadigam to talk all things bonds. From the political backdrop affecting market confidence to the details of dot plots, the trio cover major developments in the US, the UK and the eurozone.    This episode was recorded on 13 June '24. For any terms used please read our glossary .   Please view our full disclaimer here .

At 25bps the European Central Bank’s (ECB) first interest cut may not have been the deepest, but the ECB is still ahead of the Fed and the Bank of England in its easing cycle. Looking to the prospects of further cuts in the year, Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins go beyond Europe and focus on how the Fed is being guided by data. This episode was recorded on 6 June 2024. For any terms used please re...

This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to discuss major bond markets. High on the agenda is what to expect in the run up to a likely cut in rates next week by the European Central Bank. They also discuss how elections are shaping rates markets and ask why quantitative tightening is a growing topic.    This episode was recorded on 30 May 2024. For any terms used pleas...

This week host Imogen Bachra is again joined by Deepika Dayal and Giovanni Zanni to discuss not just rates, but how political developments in the UK and Europe are affecting markets. In the UK, the starting gun has fired for a July general election, while in the EU, parliamentary elections are also looming. Away from the ballot box, it's starting to feel like monetary Groundhog Day: stronger...

This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Deepika Dayal and Giovanni Zanni to discuss all things rates. In the US, how does the Fed's preferred inflation gauge compare with retail sales prints? Elsewhere, markets are contending with some important jobs data in the UK, while in Europe, what could derail a rate cut in June? Very little, it seems.   Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you...

This week, Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and John Briggs discuss how markets are digesting this week’s ‘dovish hold’ from the Bank of England, and the pace of UK monetary policy easing in the months ahead. They also share their thoughts on monetary policy divergence across regions and the impact on bond markets. Remember to hit ''follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as...

This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Kevin Cummins and Joann Spadigam to discuss how major central banks are approaching monetary policy. In the US, the Fed held rates and expectations for a cut are further adapting to strong inflation data. The picture is quite different in Europe, while in the UK, all eyes are on the Bank of England's next meeting.  Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘foll...

This week Imogen Bachra, John Briggs and Joann Spadigam discuss market surprises, with strong inflation in the US, strong purchasing manager sentiment in Europe and a strong suggestion from the Bank of England's Huw Pill that UK rates may not fall before June. Aside from the immediate figures and updates, they discuss supply, long-term debt qualms and who's led by the Fed.    Remember to...

This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by John Briggs and Joann Spadigam to discuss bond market movements. With scant evidence of grand disinflation in the US, the panel ask whether the Fed may cut rates at all this year, and what the markets may price in. In the UK, what should we make of recent inflation data which contained upside surprises, while in Europe, how acceptable are Italian and Frenc...

This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to pick over recent developments in bond markets. Much of the focus this week was on developments in the US, where higher than expected inflation is thwarting the Fed’s scope to cute rate this summer (we’ve revised our forecasts). Quite what this means for policies in Europe and the UK is uncertain, but divergence is the wa...

This week host Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins review their expectations for central bank rate cuts later this year. While economic data have surprised in the US, they don't think it's enough to dramatically change the Fed's position. But with more data on the way, it's a case of wait and see. In Europe, the broad inflation news is in line with the European Central Bank's...

This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to talk about the latest developments in the US, the UK and Europe. With rates on hold, however, there is still lots for market participants to mull over from recent central bank updates, as the risks of inflation persist. June is still on the table for the Fed's first rate cut, while at the Bank of England no member o...