Bondcast - The Rates Podcast

The US midterm elections have delivered a decisive victory for the Democrats, prompting markets to reassess the outlook for AI investment, the conflict in the Middle East and US fiscal policy. Meanwhile, the Bank of England has delivered its widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate hike, but its accompanying guidance has surprised on the hawkish side. In this episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by glob...

After a busy week of central bank meetings, Imogen Bachra turns her attention to the US mid-term elections, the Bank of England’s latest policy decision and fresh euro area inflation data. While the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan all kept interest rates unchanged, their tightening bias remains intact. Could next week’s events reinforce expectations of further rate hikes in December? What to watch: 1....

In this episode of Bondcast, we share our recent client webinar examining the economic and market impacts of this week's Budget. Jenny Edwards (Head of Venture Banking) was joined by Seb Burnside (Group Chief Economist), Stuart Burt (Head of Public Policy) and Imogen Bachra (Global Head of Economics and Market Strategy) to unpack the Budget’s implications for business costs, investment, econo...

Imogen Bachra shares her take on to watch in the week commencing 26 October.  What to watch: Market fragility and tech spillover: Earnings have revealed cracks, with weakness in tech stocks prompting a flight to quality in fixed income.   Fed meeting timing: Wednesday and Thursday are pivotal, coinciding with a likely unchanged Fed stance and minimal policy statement.   French spreads and ECB focu...

In this special crossover episode of Currency Exchange and Bondcast, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Ross Walker to explore the market implications of the upcoming UK Budget and US mid-term elections. The discussion examines the UK’s fragile fiscal position, expectations for borrowing and gilt issuance, and the growing likelihood of a Bank of England rate hike. The guests al...

Imogen Bachra shares her take on to watch in the week commencing 5 October.  Highlights: 1. France remains the key driver of European market sentiment Initial optimism around fiscal consolidation commitments from the Rassemblement National’s Marine Le Pen and supportive comments from the ECB has faded. France’s budget draft reaches parliament this week, with the possibility of an immediate attempt...

In this episode of Bondcast, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Giovanni Zanni to explore France’s escalating fiscal and political challenges, and their implications for government bond markets. With French bond spreads experiencing significant volatility, attention is turning to the country’s ability to deliver meaningful fiscal consolidation ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Giovanni explain...

Imogen Bachra shares her take on to watch in the week commencing 5 October.  Key takeaways 1. France remains the key source of market risk The French budget process moves forward this week, with debate beginning in Assembly committees before the budget enters Parliament for broader review and debate on 13 October. Markets will be watching closely for signs that political and fiscal risks are becom...

Imogen Bachra shares her take on to watch in the week commencing 21 September.  Fed speakers take centre stage A full slate of Federal Reserve speakers will provide further insight following this week’s more hawkish-than-expected Fed meeting. Markets watch for signs of how closely policymakers’ views align with the latest dot plot and whether the more hawkish tone is broadly shared. NatWest has re...

The Federal Reserve and Bank of England have both been in focus this week, with the Fed delivering a rate hike and the BoE keeping rates unchanged. In this episode, Imogen Bachra and Stuart Sparks examine what the decisions tell us about the outlook for inflation, interest rates and government bond yields – and why the BoE’s latest quantitative tightening (QT) announcement could have longer-term i...

Imogen Bachra shares her take on to watch in the week commencing 14th of September.  * Friday's US inflation data was sufficiently firm that it feels like a 25 basis point hike from the Fed next week looks like the path of least resistance. Our base case is still that this is a one and done move. We still see labour market weakness emerging into 2027, which could ultimately pave the way for r...

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra is joined by market specialists Stuart Sparks and Oriane Parmentier to discuss the latest developments across the major central banks and what they could mean for rates markets. Recorded shortly after the ECB’s meeting, the conversation begins with the central bank’s latest 25bp rate hike and the implications of higher inflation and growth projections. The disc...

In this episode of Bondcast: Speakers’ Corner, host Imogen Bachra speaks to Deepika Dayal about one of the key questions surrounding the AI boom: will artificial intelligence ultimately be inflationary or disinflationary? Deepika explains why the answer depends heavily on the time horizon. While AI could deliver substantial productivity gains over the longer term, the enormous investment required...

Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week:  US market focus is squarely on the inflation data. Fed Chair Warsh clearly overweighted the inflation data relative to current employment trends in his reaction function, and Governor Waller’s comments in the last week reiterated that point. The strength in the employment report on Friday...

In Bondcast's 250th episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by market specialists Stuart Sparks and Oriane Parmentier to assess a more eventful-than-expected Jackson Hole, the outlook for the Fed, next week’s ECB meeting and the latest move in gilt yields. The discussion starts with the Fed’s increasingly hawkish stance following Jackson Hole. Stuart explores what a conventional hiking cycle could m...

Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week: * US jobs data takes a backseat: Non-farm payrolls remains important, but the market may react less dramatically following a more hawkish-than-expected Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh. He downplayed recent labour-market weakness and emphasised inflation, suggesting employment data...

The US Treasury’s surprise decision to double the size of its regular long-end bond buybacks has reignited debate about how governments can manage rising borrowing needs and weaker demand for longer-dated debt. In this episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Oriane Parmentier to assess what the Treasury’s move is really designed to achieve – and whether it can do anything to address...

Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week. Top on the agenda is Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Warsh’s speech will be watched for signals on rates, term premium and the Fed’s response to pressure for lower yields. Markets will also assess fiscal consolidation efforts and continued heavy sovereign issuance. In Europe, ECB minutes and...

The latest escalation in the Middle East has reignited concerns over higher energy prices, inflation and the outlook for UK growth. But is this shock really comparable to the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022? In this episode of Bondcast: Speakers’ Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group Chief Economist Seb Burnside to examine how UK consumers and businesses...

In this edition of Bondcast: Speakers’ Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Director of Innovation, David Greenwald, to explore one of the defining market themes of 2026: artificial intelligence. The discussion examines whether markets are pricing in AI-driven productivity too quickly, how AI could reshape inflation and central bank thinking, and why governments are increasingly viewing AI a...

In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

In this week’s episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Giovanni Zanni to discuss what recent events mean for rates markets. Fresh tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher once again, forcing markets to reassess the inflation outlook and the likely response from central banks. At the same time, softer-than-expected US inflation data has eased immediate pressure on the...

In this special edition of Bondcast Speakers' Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group International Advisor Scott Livingstone to examine the geopolitical landscape and what it could mean for rates markets over the months and years ahead. Recorded against the backdrop of renewed strikes in the Middle East, Scott discusses why he still believes the current tensions represent a “bumpy o...

Imogen Bachra looks ahead to a week shaped by renewed Middle East risk, key US inflation data, Chair Warsh’s testimony, UK political uncertainty, and the start of earnings season. Key takeaways Markets may need to price a higher geopolitical risk premium after renewed escalation in the Middle East. Oil prices, shipping costs, and physical flows through the Strait remain important indicators of how...

Oil prices are back in focus, markets are repricing central bank risk, and politics is adding another layer of uncertainty across Europe and the UK. In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Deepika Dayal and Oriane Parmentier discuss whether markets are moving too quickly to price further rate hikes – and what investors should watch next. In this episode, we discuss: Middle East tensions and oi...