All into Account

Using positioning as a guide, investors have been expressing the opinion that Mortgages are cheap relative to Corporates, but the excess returns have gone the other way, with Corporates outperforming by ~1% in terms of excess return YTD. Looking ahead, Corporates can still outperform MBS in a range-bound rate environment with little economic growth risk while high-coupon MBS, with better yields du...

Thomas Salopek speaks with Rie Nishihara, Head of Japan Equity Strategist, Takafumi Yamawaki, Head of Japan Fixed Income Research, and Ikue Saito, Currency Strategist. Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Rie Nishihara, Head of Japan Equity Strategist Takafumi Yamawaki, Head of Japan Fixed Income Research Ikue Saito, Currency Strategist This podcast was recorded on March 2...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy The bulk of the equity performance so far this year, and indeed in the past 18 months, was driven by multiple expansion. Globally, 12m forward earnings are up only 7% from the lows, in contrast to nearly 30% P/E upmove. 2024 EPS projections are again down small in the US ytd, and are more meaningfully lower in Europe. At the same time, b...

In this podcast Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research is joined by Sam Saperstein, Head of Women on The Move across the entire JPMorgan Chase platform to discuss the work J.P. Morgan Chase is doing on expanding women-owned businesses, bridging the funding gap for women founders and how we are promoting women and girls’ financial health. Speakers Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research Samantha Saper...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy We have cut Eurozone to UW vs the US in early May of 2023, and had a preference for the US since. We are now closing the US over Eurozone OW, for the following reasons: 1. Eurozone has lagged in the past few quarters, losing 14% relative since May, and had relative outflows - in 41 out of the past 52 wks. At 13.3x forward, it is trading...

A slightly warmish CPI hasn’t moved the needle for us, so we stick with our current view on duration. Despite recently turning neutral on US duration, slowing growth and inflation should produce DM gov’t bond return of ~6.5% assuming our yield targets are realized. Upside risk for growth and inflation may continue to eat in to rate cutting plans. With the Magnificent 7 facing jitters and Equal Wei...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy We favoured Growth over Value style through last year, and again so far ytd, arguing that the Nov-Dec Value rally – such as an outperformance of BKX and of small caps seen at the time – was unlikely to last. There is a clear concern over how sustainable the Mag -7 run is, but we note that this group of stocks is not trading increasingly...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA - Head of Global Equity Strategy So far ytd, US and Japan are ahead of other markets, Growth is outperforming Value and large caps are again beating small in all key regions. We continue to believe that this, ultimately unhealthy, high concentration and narrow leadership is set to stay for a while longer. To buy Value and International stocks one needs to see a reflati...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA - Head of Global Equity Strategy Bulls are to a good extent basing their constructive market call on the premise that corporate profits are set to accelerate, supported by the bottoming out in activity indicators that is now in progress. However, the earnings reality might turn out to be the opposite as we move through the year. In aggregate, corporate profit margins a...

Yields have move up sharply since the mid-January trough on the back of strong growth and inflation data, although we feel the market may have gone too far, providing an entry point to get long duration, especially now that positioning has neutralized.  Jay and Jason join today to discuss the fundamental and technical picture for US Fixed Income. Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strate...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy One of the sector calls where we face the most pushback from investors is our UW on Banks, entered in Q4. Until Q4, Banks had outperformed for three years in a row, driven by better EPS momentum and ultimately by rising bond yields. We have downgraded the sector as we think this phase is over. US 10-year moved from 0.5% in 2020 to 5% las...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA - Head of Global Equity Strategy From a global equity perspective, we had upgraded Japan to OW in Dec ’22. While we still think that USD is likely to be stronger from here, it might not be crucial to hedge JPY anymore, as the interest rate differential between the US and Japan looks set to start converging this year. For the continued bullish view on Japan, we reiterat...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA So far this year, US is ahead of International, Growth is outperforming Value, large caps are again beating small - Russell2000 is outright down on the year 3%, and China continued struggling. We believe that this, ultimately unhealthy, high concentration and narrow leadership is set to continue until something breaks. To buy Value, beta and International stocks, one n...

Jason Hunter discusses the short-term technical setups or US Treasuries and equities following the Jan FOMC meeting. He also highlights the key resistance on Shanghai Composite, after the failed bounce leaves that market in a bear trend and vulnerable to further downside. Speakers: Jason Hunter, Head of Technical Strategy This podcast was recorded on 1 February 2024. This communication is provided...

We’ve seen a three-month period of underperformance for Chinese stocks and outperformance for Japanese stocks. Our positioning indicators based on futures and cross-border flows hint at flows from China to Japan. The recent China stimulus points to better days ahead for Chinese equities, and the worry was money flowing back from Japan would blunt the Japanese equity rally. Overall, we downplay the...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA - Head of Global Equity Strategy The last positive spell for Eurozone was between Sept ’22 and May ’23, when it outperformed S&P500 by as much as 32%, in USD terms. We cut Eurozone to UW in early May of last year, and the question is what can help Eurozone to deliver another leg of outperformance. It certainly screens cheap vs the US, at a 15% greater discount than...

Speakers:   Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy   Pedro Martins, Chief EM Equity strategist   David Aserkoff, Head of CEEMEA Equity Strategy     This podcast was recorded on January 25, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4609169-0,   https://www.jpmm.com/research...

HG bond spreads at 110bp are just 2bp wide to the post-GFC tightest level, so Eric joins to shed some light on why spreads are so tight. While our views haven’t materially changed, the market moves have put us well though our YE spread forecast of 125bp, so we consider which catalysts can trigger widening. A disappointing earnings season may prove to be the near-term test for HG, which we see as p...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA - Head of Global Equity Strategy   For Q4 results, the activity momentum has generally decelerated in the quarter, which calls for a sequential weakness in earnings delivery. The good news is that the hurdle rate has come down aggressively, for S&P500 from 10% to only 2% yoy. Given this, the actual results are likely to yet again beat the much lowered estimates. Th...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy The question is whether the move lower in bond yields is over for the time being, and can it resume further down the line without a clear bout of activity weakness materializing? We called last October to position for the rollover in bond yields, but post the sharp fall of 100bp in 3 months, a pause is likely. Central banks rate projecti...

Jason Hunter discusses some of the more interesting technical setups and signals from his recent publications and ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report. This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4588098-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/G...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy As of end October ‘23, the average stock in S&P500 was down on the year, with SPW at -5%. A lot has changed, courtesy of the November-December rally, and equity markets are now showing overbought conditions, with sentiment moving into complacent territory. This can be seen in high RSIs, elevated Bull-Bear, VIX near lows, tight credit...

Speakers:   Thomas Salopek, Head of Cross Asset Strategy   Marko Kolanovic, Chief Global Markets Strategist   And other speakers from across Global Research   Listen to analysts from across Global Research as they discuss the 2024 outlook across asset classes and regions.   This podcast was recorded on Dec. 11, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clien...

The global housing market is facing a supply/demand imbalance with divergent prospects across regions, but the housing affordability crisis is a common denominator. In this video and podcast, we discuss current market conditions in the global housing market. Oversupply in China and commercial real estate contrasts with the lack of supply in the US housing market, which is essentially frozen. US ho...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy We look at 3 key drivers for next year: first, falling bond yields. We called in October to position for a long duration trade, on the back of likely finished Fed, continued deceleration in inflation, activity softening, and post a big bond selloff. As the move lower in bond yields gains traction, it is initially seen as a positive for e...