All into Account

Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy Rie Nishihara, Head of Japan Equity Strategy Junya Tanase, Chief Japan FX Strategist   This podcast was recorded on Sept 25, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4797455-0 and  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4...

Daniel and Nelson join us to break down the differences between the European and US High Yield and Leveraged Loan markets, aka comparing apples and oranges. We do a thorough comparison of the asset class universes in terms of ratings and industry composition, and how this has played out in terms of spreads and returns.   Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy Daniel Lamy, Head of Eu...

Jason Hunter discusses bearish Sep-Oct equity seasonality, critical chart support for the semiconductor group, and the potential that the spring-summer price action marks a large top pattern on the heels of the 2022-2024 bull market. He also highlights the 2s/5s yield curve longer-term base pattern breakout and the prospects for a steepening trend acceleration.   Speakers:  Jason Hunter, Head of T...

Featured in this podcast is Rajiv Batra. The Indian Equity Market has remained resilient in the face of volatility in global markets. As such, we discuss how the Indian markets are positioned and what are the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. This podcast was recorded on Aug 29, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the relate...

Jason Hunter discusses the sharp July trends across fixed income, currency, equity, and commodity markets. While they look more technical and position-driven at the moment, the late-cycle signals coming from cross-market relationships and lower-frequency pattern development suggests the summer shifts can mark the start of something more durable.   Speakers: Jason Hunter, Head of Technical Strategy...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy SPW, an equal-weighted S&P500 index, has stalled since March, and is behind SPX so far this year by more than 10%. We think this is reflecting a changing Growth-Policy narrative vs early 2024. Entering this year, investor expectations were for a Goldilocks outcome – growth acceleration and at the same time quick Fed easing, starting...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy After meaningfully lagging the US in 2nd half of last year, Eurozone equities showed some relative stabilization in Q1/Q2, before breaking lower most recently on a spike in French political uncertainty. We have closed the UW on Eurozone vs the US in Q1, driven by the improving Growth - Policy tradeoff in the region, but we believed that...

Raphael joins us to provide an overview of the French political developments and their potential impact on the economy. Aditya provides an update of his scenarios for European rates markets and how to position for duration, as we consider whether this situation is idiosyncratic to France or broadening to other Euro sovereign spreads. Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Ra...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy In contrast to Q1, when key bond proxy Defensive sectors – Utilities, Real Estate and Staples – were the three worst performers, Q2 has brought a change. QTD, these three sectors are in line in Europe, making a positive swing in performance of 10%. The worst performers so far this quarter are Autos, Travel & Leisure, Chemicals, Luxur...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy This podcast was recorded on 09 June 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4713514-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. A...

Looking ahead to next week’s BoJ monetary policy meeting, Fujita-san joins us to share her views of what to expect including the timing of QT, the rate hiking trajectory, terminal rates, and the inflation outlook. Yamawaki-san explains what’s been driving the move up in JGB yield post NIRP. With regard to the upcoming MPM, we see some upside for yields from here as the market is underpricing rate...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy Last couple of months are showing softening US growth momentum, but at the same time an increasing potential for higher for longer Fed. We see the market upside capped during summer due to the inconsistency between consensus call for disinflation on one hand, and the belief in no landing and in earnings acceleration on the other. Within...

Eric and Nelson join us to discuss their views on HG and HY. For HG, we review what’s driving the low volatility of credit spreads, whether credit investors becoming more defensive, and what would cause spreads to break out either way. For HY, we highlight our recent forecast revisions, our default rate assumptions, and how recent capital market activity is affecting spreads.   Speakers: Thomas Sa...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy In this report, we focus on two topics: first, at sector level on the Cyclicals vs Defensives performance into rate cuts and against the backdrop of falling bond yields, and at the style level on the performance of Large vs Small caps. Historically, Defensives and bond proxies struggled when bond yields would be moving higher. This phase...

Speaker - Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy Q1 reporting season again showed an age-old pattern of beats vs heavily lowered expectations. For full year 2024, earnings projections in the US are unchanged ytd, and down a few percent in Europe. The downgrades to sellside analyst EPS expectations throughout the year are nothing unusual, they happen most of the time, without adverse e...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy After a terrible spell between Jan ’23 and January of this year, where MSCI China lost almost 40%, it is now up 25% from the lows. While we do not believe that the longer term structural concerns of deflationary backdrop, real estate demand-supply imbalances, credit saturation and global decoupling are finished, our tactical view remains...

It’s been a tough year for both getting long outright duration or being long steepeners. We expect disinflation will reassert itself, but in the near term, there is event risk (e.g., CPI & HICP numbers) making us cautious. Fabio joins us to discuss the catalysts to trade duration, the curve, and intra-EMU spreads.   Speakers Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy Fabio Bassi, Head of Inte...

Speakers:   Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research Jan Loeys, Long-term Strategy Joe Lupton, Economic and Policy Research Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research Steve Dulake, Global Head of Credit, Securitized Products and Public Finance Research     This podcast was recorded on 7 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy We are concerned about inflation staying too high if there is no slack created in the economy, adverse bonds demand-supply with negative term premia, consensus expectation of profit acceleration of almost 20% between Q1 and Q4 of this year, which doesn’t typically happen, especially if the economy softens in 2H, consumer tailwinds potent...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Global Head of Equity Strategy At the overall market level, we remain concerned about the repeat of last summer’s drawdown, inflation staying too hot is a real possibility, market will not like it if bond yields move above 5%. Within this, we have made some regional changes in Q1, specifically we tactically closed our longstanding China bearish view, given 30%+ drawdo...

Speakers:     Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy   Ipek Ozil, US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategist   Powell’s recent comments represent a strong reversal from the dovishness from March, so policy uncertainty remains as elevated as ever. In response to strong CPI data this week, the options markets are implying a significant weight on a hike by year-end, leaving rate-cut scenari...

Speaker: Mislav, Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy Q1 reporting season is upon us. As is typical, consensus projections have been moving materially lower over the past months. For S&P500, IBES is now calling for 3% yoy EPS growth, which is down from 10-12% projections seen last summer. In a break from recent norms, though, the activity momentum firmed up during the quarter, as seen...

A hot CPI print following the recent strong jobs print has put ‘high for long’ back in focus, challenging the soft landing narrative. We discuss with Phoebe what these ‘bumps in the road’ mean our views on TIPS, breakevens, and duration generally. As for Gold, Greg dissects the reasons for the recent rally and reviews whether the rate cutting cycle is going to be as bullish for Gold as it was hist...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy With respect to bond yields’ direction, our call last October was to go long duration, that bond yields have likely peaked. After the ytd bounceback, we think that yields will resume moving lower. Our FI team forecasts that US and German 10-year yields will be below current on 3-, 6- and 9-month horizons. We fundamentally agree with this...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy In terms of leadership, US and Japan are ahead of other markets ytd, Growth is outperforming Value and large caps are again beating small, in all key regions. We continue to believe that this style of leadership will broadly stay the case for a while longer, until there is a break, or a reset, in the cycle. For Value, commodities, low Qu...