All into Account

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy Our key building blocks for 2024 are: first, to enter a long duration trade, as per our last month’s report. After 3 years of an uptrend, with US & German long yields up 400bp, bond yields look set to move lower. That was the case each of the last 8 times post final Fed hike. Second, all key regions are expected by our economists to...

We discuss the message from overnight trading signals and how the impact is manifested in specific timeframes. Professor Whelan from CUHK joins to discuss his own work in this area, while Erik from Research & Jagadish from QIS offer our take on this subject as well as covering the feasibility of implementing these strategies successfully after costs. This podcast was recorded on November 27, 2...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy Earnings growth this year is on track for a largely flattish outcome. For next year, consensus is implying a significant pickup, at 10% EPS growth globally. Both topline and margins are expected to improve vs this year. There are risks to this, in our view, especially given that the corporate earnings are at present above historical tren...

We have moved OW EM FX as US yields fell, data stabilized and EM central banks have struck a more cautious tone. At the same time, we remain MW in EM Local Rates and EM Credit. While EM bond yields have also sold off, any retracement is likely to be incomplete and contingent on a renewed dovish pivot by central banks that are clearly cautious for the time being. Instead, we find EM rates attractiv...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy After a prolonged spell of weakness, at first driven by the inflation and bond yields spike last year, and then this year by macro recovery trade, certain Defensives are starting to trade a bit better of late. We think that Defensives could catch a more sustained bid if: 1. Bond yields could be in the process of peaking out, we reiterate...

Mislav, Kian, and Esmail join to discuss our view of European banks, after our recent shift to UW given that the outperformance of the sector may stall assuming bond yields are peaking. We also discuss the bottoms up perspective and how best to implement the views within vol markets.   Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Mislav Matejka, Head of Global & European Equit...

We reiterate our call from  October  that bond yields are likely in the process of peaking during Q4, and that one should go long duration. As this view gets confirmation, it is in the short term interpreted by investors as a knee-jerk positive for equities, especially after some derisking that took place in the past months. Having said that, we believe that equities will soon revert back to an un...

We expect GLP-1s will be an important theme now and in the years to come, so we’ve gathered up both the Stock and Credit analysts for a number of sectors including Pharmaceuticals, Med Tech, Food, Beverages, Healthcare, Insurance, Retail etc. to get an overview of the broad impact.   Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Chris Schott, Pharmaceuticals Analyst Robbie Marcus,...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy We are advising to open a short in European Banks, and we move the sector from Neutral to UW. Banks have been one of the best performers in the past 6 months, second only to Energy, are ahead nicely ytd, up 8% vs SXXP at 1%, to be cumulatively ahead by 60% since Sept 2020. If bond yields are in the process of peaking this quarter, as we...

“Mortgages are cheap to Corporates” has become one of the most popular adages in the HG credit market this year, achieving near Taylor Swift status within certain circles of investors (aka the Taylor rule). In this podcast, we roll out a novel framework to look at Corporates versus MBS relative value. If we compare the OAS of MBS (which takes call risk into account) versus Corporate spreads adjust...

Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Eric Beinstein, Head of US Credit Strategy This podcast was recorded on 26 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4538830-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4540030-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.c...

‘Practitioners’ views on QIS investments’ with Dobromir Tzotchev, Head of Cross Asset Systematic Research, Deepak Maharaj, QIS Product Development, and Paul Fraynt, Portfolio Manager, Franklin Templeton.   Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Dobromir Tzotchev, Head of Cross Asset Systematic Research Deepak Maharaj, QIS Product Development Paul Fraynt, Portfolio Manager, F...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy   In addition to the move up in energy prices and elevated bond yields, renewed USD strength is another factor that the equity market needs to digest. Last October, USD peak coincided with the equity trough, and the more mixed equity performance in the past few months is coinciding with USD bottoming. Almost always in the past, when USD...

Nuclear is making a global comeback, and we see accelerating developments across the APAC region as nuclear plays role in de-carbonization. Since early 2022, at least 14 countries have approved new nuclear units or announced supportive policies. This echoes IEA’s earlier forecast that nuclear power capacity will need to double in size in the next two decades for the world to meet net-zero. We expe...

Speakers:  Jake Pollack, J.P. Morgan’s Global Head of Credit Financing Stephen Dulake, J.P. Morgan’s Global Head of Credit, Securitized Products and Public Finance Research   This podcast was recorded on 19 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &...

Faced with a backdrop of high for long rates, geopolitical risk, and inflection points at the end of the hiking cycle and possible recession, we discuss what are the most promising risk premia and themes on a cross asset basis, from the perspective of Research, Structuring and Macrosynergy.  In addition, we discuss the challenges in systematic strategies, given big swings in the data post-COVID an...

Speaker - Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy Big picture, we argued last Monday that bond yields are likely peaking. Given that the sharp bond selloff was a problem for equities over the past months, any turn lower in yields is initially interpreted as a positive by the market. The question is how long will that supportive effect last for, as the next market phase could be “bad wi...

In this podcast we discuss the recently published “Cost of Living Surveys” by our US and EMEA retail analysts. The surveys provide a pulse check on consumer sentiment and spending plans ahead, with responses from 5k consumers across Germany, France, Spain the United Kingdom and the United States. The survey results raise a question on whether consumers are at an inflection point and paint a pictur...

Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Grace Ng, Senior China Economist Wendy Liu, Chief Asia and China Equity Strategist This podcast was recorded on October 11, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4530776-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4528894-0, www...

In this latest podcast we revisit the predictions we made at the beginning of the year on the outlook for markets and review how the “The Great Repricing” we discussed earlier this year is playing out. We also take the opportunity to make adjustments to our long-only Strategic Asset Allocation views. The great repricing that we had expected for fixed income has dramatically unfolded this past year...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy   In terms of a move in bond yields, we believe that we are currently in a transition phase, rising bond yields at these levels are problematic for investor sentiment and for the economy, and are therefore ultimately not sustainable. Bonds RSI is becoming oversold and at some point soon this should morph into pricing in of a policy mista...

Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Steve Dulake, Head of Spread Product Research Bram Kaplan, Head of Americas Derivative Strategy This podcast was recorded on October 5, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522939-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-45...

In this podcast we discuss the substantial outflows and volatility impacting China’s financial markets since 2022.  China’s regulatory policies and debt burden have raised concerns and authorities have announced numerous measures to “activate capital markets” and support policy targets since August. We continue to view risks of global financial market spillovers as muted.   Speakers Joyce Chang, C...

Speaker: Mislav Matejka CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy Despite some recent weakness, where SPX RSI turned technically oversold, we believe that the equity risk-reward remains challenging. Divergences between softer activity momentum and the elevated equity prices, as well as market internals, that opened up in the summer, are starting to close, but there is more to go. The PMI rebound that ma...

The theme of High for Long (H4L) is supportive for our current Cross Asset views, where it’s long European duration, UW European stock, or OW USD vs lower yielding currencies with growth risk. More often than not, this theme has reinforced the conviction in our regional views as we assess to what degree H4L is durable in countries with more growth risk.   Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Ass...