Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

In a year where trade has dominated the headlines since the U.S. started imposing higher tariffs against its trading partners, agricultural export activity is worth paying close attention to. Encouragingly, the start of the year has remained positive for the sector. In the first quarter of 2025, South Africa's agricultural exports totalled US$ 3.36 billion, up 10% from the same period a year ago....

The Southern Africa region is far better regarding food supplies today than a year ago. For example, Zambia's 2024-25 maize crop has bounced back. The government forecasts the harvest to be 3,66 million tonnes, up from 1,5 million tonnes the previous season. This is because of favourable weather conditions and the decent area plantings. The harvest is underway in the country, and the message we ar...

One of the themes that dominated the White House Press session this evening was agriculture – the idea that the farming sector in South Africa is under siege and people are running away. But this could be no further than reality. The South African farming sector or farming community is not under siege. And yes, the country has devastating crime incidents, which should remain a major worry for all....

At the end of April, we completed South Africa's 2024-25 marketing year for maize. This marketing year corresponds with the 2023-24 production season, which was challenged by the mid-summer drought and led to the 22% decline in South Africa’s maize harvest to 12,85 million tonnes. The big help in that season came from the gains of the previous ones. For example, the season started with 2,40 millio...

We have been saying for some time that 2025 will be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture, mainly highlighting the gains in grains, soybeans, and horticulture yields. But I was particularly pleased on May 8, when I received a report from South Africa Wine (SA Wine) indicating that we will have an excellent harvest in 2025. SA Wine and Vinpro forecasts South Africa’s wine grapes harvest to...

On April 30, we had essential data on South Africa's agriculture. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its third production forecast for South Africa's 2024-25 summer crop production season. There are seven more monthly estimates to come. But on the third estimate, we begin to have some comfort about the accuracy of the data. At a time when we have been worrying about the excessive rains, t...

We are beginning to be concerned about the impact of these excessive rains on agriculture, particularly summer grains and oilseed regions. The crop has matured in most areas, and some planted earlier are now ready to harvest. However, with these excessive rains, it may prove impossible to access the fields. Since we had a late start to the season, roughly a month behind the typical schedule, some...

In political economy, there is something called "flooding the zone". Roughly explained, this is when a deluge of information takes people's attention away from what should be a priority. In South Africa's agriculture, we are fortunately not under such an attack through the flood of information. Still, we must continuously be vigilant and reflect thoughtfully on risks affecting the sector. In recen...

South Africa, the only African country that is a member of the G20, holds the presidency of the grouping until the end of November 2025. During this time, it could help drive the African continent’s food security agenda. For agriculture, South Africa has set four G20 priorities: * the promotion of policies and investments that can lead to improved food and nutrition security * empowering youth and...

South Africa was not spared of the "Liberation Day" tariffs announced by US President Trump against various countries. South Africa will face tariffs between 10% and 31% in the US for all products. The specificity of by-products is not yet clear. We know now that a baseline tariff of 10% will apply to imports from all countries. It remains unclear if there are differences in the remaining 21% (tha...

South Africa's agriculture is recovering after a challenging mid-summer drought that led to significant crop losses in the 2023-24 season. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) 's data released at the end of March 2025 paints an encouraging picture of this new season's summer crop production prospects. For example, the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production is forecast at 18,0 million tonnes, u...

We have a challenging year like this one where there remains discomfort about the Expropriation Act in some sections of South Africa and rising geopolitical tensions; we were pleasantly surprised to see rising optimism in South Africa’s agriculture. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) – a sentiment indicator in South Africa’s agriculture -- increased 11 points from Q4 2024 to 70 in Q...

South Africa has the contradiction of being the leading agricultural exporter in Africa, while swelling number of households that is food insecure. Without proper policy engagement of this challenge, the sector face the risk of more waves of misconceptions about its export-driven growth drive while many South Africans are impoverished. We believe that an accurate diagnosis of the problem and its u...

South Africa's agriculture exports reached a new record of US$13,7 billion in 2024, up 3% from the previous year. This reflects both an increase in the volume of agricultural exports and higher prices of some products. The top exported products by value include citrus, grapes, maize, apples and pears, wine, nuts, fruit juices, sugar, berries, dates, pineapples, avocados, wool, apricots and peaches...

We have been saying for some time that this will likely be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture following a harsh mid-summer drought in the 2023-24 season that weighed on grains and oilseeds harvest. The first production estimates for 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds point to the possibility of a better harvest. The Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the 2024-25 overall summer grains a...

South Africa's agriculture is on its recovery path, supported by favourable rainfall and progress in controlling the spread of animal diseases, amongst other contributing factors. The previous 2023-24 production season was challenging, characterised by the mid-summer drought and animal diseases that added immense pressure to the sector. The jobs data for the fourth quarter of 2024 illustrate the d...

Since I have been writing about the higher maize prices and possible upside risks to consumer food price inflation, I thought it is important to highlight that we have been observing a price retreat since last week. When the market closed today, February 14, 2025, South Africa's white maize spot price was R5 559 per tonne, well below the R6 700 per tonne mark we saw at the start of January 2025. H...

There has been an emerging narrative that South Africa's agriculture has not performed well recently. Inept municipalities, poor road infrastructure, stock theft, and port inefficiencies all contribute to this narrative of failure and despair. Stories of the failings of land reform farms also add to this sentiment of regression in agricultural progress. The government's failings over the p...

While the start of South Africa's 2024-25 crop season was tricky, there remains optimism that farmers likely planted more area than the previous season. The preliminary plantings data released by the Crop Estimates Committee this afternoon shows that South African farmers likely planted 4,45 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds in the 2024-25 season, up mildly by 0,3% from the previous s...

A friend recently sent me a Bloomberg article about China's efforts to diversify agricultural imports. The idea is to lessen the reliance on the US in anticipation of trade friction under the Trump administration. Central and South Americans seem to be on the way to becoming the major winners. They have a surplus of agricultural products that China imports, such as grains, oilseeds, red meat, wine...

Whenever I see challenges within South Africa's agriculture, Zimbabwe is the other country I think of as their challenges are often worse. Notably, South Africa typically has to shoulder Zimbabwe when there are challenges, specifically in staple grain production. Consider the 2023-24 production year, when Zimbabwe had a challenging season due to the mid-summer drought that affected Southern Africa...

Whenever one posts on social media about the challenges in the maize industry, I often see responses from people arguing that South Africans should consume more sorghum. They correctly highlight the nutritious value of the crop and its resilience in challenging climatic conditions. But with all these benefits, the sorghum industry has not taken off. The challenge is not that farmers refuse to plan...

We can view 2024 in South Africa's agriculture as a "mixed" year. Indeed, the GDP figures will show a sharp contraction in South Africa's agricultural fortunes in 2024. But a deep dive will illuminate a more nuanced picture of mixed performance. For example, the field crops and livestock subsectors had their fair share of challenges, while the horticulture subsector had a relatively better year. F...

I am starting to believe that South Africa’s 2024 agricultural exports may reach a new record high and surpass the 2023 record level of US$13, 2 billion. The better prices and output in various fruits, red meat, wool, and wine will be the major driver of the improvement in exports this year. Already, South Africa's cumulative agricultural export value for the first three quarters of 2024 is up 4%...

We continue to observe the rising optimism in South Africa’s farming and agribusiness sectors. For example, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI), a sentiment indicator in the sector, increased by 10 points from Q3 to 58 in Q4. This is the second consecutive improvement, placing the ACI at its highest since Q2 2022. This level of the ACI implies that South African agribusinesses remain...