Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

On July 6, 206, I flagged in a note to the South African agribusinesses that we are beginning to see the benefits of the likely memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S. aimed at ending the war on agricultural input prices. Fertiliser and fuel prices have declined notably from the levels we saw as recently as May 2026. That said, uncertainty remains, and it increasingly appears that th...

South Africa’s consumer food price inflation continues to slow. The figures released by Statistics South Africa this morning show that the consumer food price inflation slowed to 1.6% in May 2026, down from 2.8% in March. This is the lowest level in 17 months. There was a broad deceleration across the various food products. At the core of moderating consumer food price inflation are lower prices f...

The South African farming sector had a broadly positive start to 2026. This is notwithstanding the challenges posed by foot-and-mouth disease in cattle, African swine fever in the pig industry, and floods in the northeastern regions of South Africa at the start of the year. Still, higher economic activity across field crops and horticulture sufficiently supported growth in the sector. The figures...

We are likely in another year of mixed fortunes in South Africa’s agriculture. At an aggregate level, we believe that the sector is likely to see some growth this year. However, the subsector view will show significant divergence, as various parts of the sector face an array of pressures. One of these is the ongoing spread of animal diseases, which remains a big risk for livestock farmers. Another...

The South African agricultural sector continues to create more jobs. In the first quarter of 2026, farm jobs increased by 3% from the same period a year earlier to 960k jobs (up by 1% from the last quarter of 2025). This uptick in agricultural employment is unsurprising as the sector has generally enjoyed favourable production conditions in 2025 through to the start of this year. The industries th...

Agricultural machinery sales remain robust in South Africa, supported by orders some farmers likely placed before the current global challenges. The farmers’ finances over the past few months were boosted by the ample harvest in the 2024-25 season, on the back of beneficial La Niña rains. Therefore, in our interpretation of these recent sales, we ought to be careful not to view the data as an indi...

Firstly, there’s a growing likelihood that we’re entering the onset of an El Niño event. This will likely begin around October 2027, which is the start of the 2026-27 summer season. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) highlighted this in their report today, 1 May 2026. Depending on the severity of the El Niño, it will likely negatively affect agricultural activity in South Africa and across S...

Many agricultural crops and value chains have shown dramatic progress in recent years. They should serve as an inspiration for further growth of this sector. I often write about South Africa's soybean success story, whose production increased from 67,700 tonnes in the 1993-94 production season to an expected record harvest of 2,8 million tonnes in 2025-26. This, in turn, has been driven by increas...

We are late in the 2025-26 summer grains and oilseed season. Farmers in some regions have already started harvesting the crop. South Africa is set to have its largest grain harvest on record, about 20.8 million tonnes. But will the recent rains not cause quality issues? Or will they help supplement soil moisture ahead of the start of the 2026-27 season? Listen to the podcast for more. Wandile Sihl...

Last week, the South African Agricultural Machinery Association released its monthly agricultural machinery sales report for March 2026. To some observers of the South African agricultural sector, the report signalled a change from the long period of strong tractor and combine harvesters sales to a much slower pace. Tractor sales declined for the first time in 14 months, down 8% year-on-year, to 6...

In these times of conversations about the impact of high fuel and fertiliser prices on agriculture, the region of South Africa I find myself thinking about the most right now is the Western Cape. The Western Cape produces much of our winter crops: half of South Africa’s winter wheat, and the majority of our barley, canola and oats. Planting of these crops begins at the end of this month. Some farm...

When we consider exports in South Africa’s agriculture, we typically overlook the importance of the African continent. Such an approach is wrong; the continent is central to our agricultural export success so far. In 2025, South Africa’s agriculture exported a record US$15.1 billion, up 10% from a year ago. Nearly half of these exports went to the African continent. Indeed, the continent’s promine...

South Africa's agricultural exports to the Middle East, worth US$1.3 billion in 2025, or 8% of overall agricultural exports, are at risk from this crisis. Shipping costs are rising. Agricultural businesses that export to the Middle East will now be exploring whether other markets can absorb their products. South Africa's citrus, strawberry, and maize harvest seasons will soon begin across the coun...

South Africa indeed transports much of its agriculture and food products by road. For example, 80% of South African staple grain products are transported by road. We see similar volumes in other commodities. Agricultural products are also processed in certain regions and then transported to various consumption points. This means that fuel price changes affect food prices through adjustments in dis...

South Africa may miss its maize export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends in April. The exports so far are at 1.7 million tonnes as of the first week of March 2026. Given a softer weekly export pace, it is unlikely that the country will see strong enough momentum in the remaining weeks of the current marketing year to reach the 2.4 million tonnes seasonal for...

A day after we received robust agricultural GDP data, showing that the sector’s gross value added grew by 17.4% year-on-year in 2025, following a -8.4% year-on-year contraction in 2024, some may wonder why the sentiment indicators suggest a subdued mood. In data released on March 11, we learned that after rising for much of last year, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) fell by 18 po...

We are watching the worrying developments in the Middle East. The region is key to South Africa's agriculture, both for exports and for its influence on oil and gas prices. Listen to the podcast for our early impression. Wandile Sihlobo website

We are in another favourable agricultural season in South Africa, with favourable rains that enabled the farmers to plant and supported the grazing veld for the livestock industry. This builds on a better agricultural performance in 2025, a year of La Niña rains that supported the sector. The only significant risk at the moment is foot-and-mouth disease, which continues to weigh on South Africa’s...

After falling for two consecutive quarters, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) increased by 5 points to 67 in Q4 2025. Favourable weather conditions, strong exports throughout the year on the back of ample grains, oilseeds, and horticulture harvests, as well as better port efficiencies, are among the key drivers of optimism in the sector. We suspect that the announcement of nationwi...

We continue to receive encouraging notes about the prospects of La Niña in the 2025-26 summer season. The La Niña-induced rains will help support field crops, horticulture, and grazing veld for livestock. The farmers are optimistic and plan to increase area plantings, primarily of field crops. One aspect of the agricultural sector that has posed a significant challenge is the livestock industry, w...

About 720 million people continued to experience hunger in 2024, and 2.6 billion people were unable to afford healthy diets. It is this reality that compelled the G20 Leaders' Declaration in Johannesburg to shine a spotlight on global food insecurity challenges correctly. Countries can explore many interventions to resolve this challenge, from improving agricultural productivity to easing trade. L...

Various regions of South Africa have started receiving the 2025-26 summer rains. The rains will help ensure that the agricultural season begins on time and that we have excellent production conditions. The farmers are relatively optimistic, having suggested that they intend to plant 4.5 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds, a 1% increase from the 2024-25 season. Importantly, the favourab...

The U.S. decision to modify its reciprocal tariffs and exempt some food products is a positive step towards easing agricultural trade friction, which is costly to both exporting countries and U.S. consumers. The exempted products include coffee and tea, fruit juices, cocoa, and spices, as well as avocados, bananas, coconuts, guavas, limes, oranges, mangoes, plantains, pineapples, various peppers a...

The Karoo region of South Africa experiences intense weather conditions, with often extremely hot summers and bitterly cold winters. It is these extreme weather conditions that nurture the distinct vegetation of the region, which is a source of feed for the sheep industry there. The Karoo lamb has a unique and supreme taste due to the distinct vegetation. But there are times when extreme heat and...

The African government must do everything possible to assist farmers during the 2025-26 production season. In the past, when confronted with disasters and food shortages, we had relied on organisations such as the World Food Programme for assistance. This time around, the World Food Programme is no longer fit to assist if we run into challenges. Hence, thinking about the future, we have to do what...