Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

South Africa’s agriculture continues to create job opportunities, and its long-term job creation prospects remain positive. If we look at the high-frequency data for a moment, the number of farm jobs in South Africa has increased slightly from the second quarter of 2025, by 2% to 920k in the third quarter. We see the quarterly improvements mainly in some field crops, horticulture, forestry, and in...

This is a busy period in South African farming. The summer crop farmers are tilling the land for the new season, table grape farmers are harvesting, and the winter crop farmers are harvesting. South Africa’s 2025-26 winter wheat season began at the start of October. But we are seeing that farmers have begun delivering the new season crop, which was planted from the start of May. In the first five...

We must dispel the false narrative that South Africa’s farming sector is under siege. This sector has flourished since the dawn of democracy in 1994. We have seen its value more than double, and exports are expanding. We are now the only African country in the top 40 global agricultural exporters. If there were indeed an attack on the farming sector, we wouldn’t be seeing such success. Another dan...

South Africa's 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production season was excellent. In its 9th production estimate, released on October 28, 2025, the Crop Estimate Committee raised South Africa's 2024-25 production by 1% from the September estimate to 20.08 million tonnes. This figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. The upward revision was mainly on maiz...

We are in a period of relatively high activity in South Africa’s agriculture. Farmers across the country are tilling the land to mark the start of the 2025-26 summer crop season. We also see some activity in the vegetable fields as farmers prepare for the season ahead. The outlook is positive as we are in a La Niña period. There is also increased activity in the winter crop-growing regions of the...

In the week of September 26 and October 3, 2025, Zimbabwe imported 34,093 tonnes of maize from South Africa. These imports are at a time when Zimbabwe has previously announced a ban on maize imports, an effort that was set to provide the local producers space to sell their produce to the domestic users. What then is happening here? Listen to the podcast for more information. Richard Humphries and...

We are ending South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production season on an optimistic note. We now have eight production estimates with two more to follow, which are unlikely to change the positive picture we have. The data released at the end of September 2025 by the Crop Estimates Committee show an increase in South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest estimate, up by 2...

Similar to the improvement in maize production witnessed in South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and other countries in the Southern African region, Kenya's maize crop has also shown signs of recovery. The latest estimate by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) places the country's harvest at 4.4 million tonnes. This is up 15% from the previous season due to both the expansion in area pla...

We see a constructive picture of South Africa's food price inflation, easing at 5.2% in August 2025, from 5.5% in the previous months. South Africa has an abundant harvest of grains, fruits, and various vegetables, and the benefits of this are starting to show in prices. It is these products that were the major drivers of the moderation in price inflation. A key product that many are watching is m...

Next month, October, we will start our 2025-26 summer grains and oilseed production season in South Africa. The outlook for the season looks optimistic with prospects of rain, which will benefit not only crops but the overall agricultural sector. Listen to the podcast for more information. Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

South Africa's agricultural sector is in its recovery phase, and the second quarter of 2025 figures signal the improvement, albeit mildly. The country's agricultural gross value added expanded by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter. This follows the 18.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of the year. The expansion was primarily due to the improved performance...

One of the interlinked industries that tends to benefit when the agricultural sector is thriving is the agricultural machinery industry. This year is no different; South Africa's agricultural machinery sales have remained reasonably robust since the start of 2025. I suspect the sales are likely to continue at this encouraging pace. If we consider the details, the tractor sales have increased for t...

The Zimbabwean government has reinstated a ban on maize imports. The government believes that in the interim, there are sufficient supplies for the local market and wants to ensure maximum price realisation for the domestic producers before allowing imports. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if Zimbabwe has sufficient maize supplies for the year or will need imports later. Zimbabwe’s 2024-25 maize...

After solid export activity in the first quarter of the year, South Africa's agricultural exports totalled US$3.71 billion in Q2, up 10% from the same period a year ago, according to data from Trade Map. This is again a function of both higher volumes of various product exports and better commodity prices. The products that dominated the exports list in the second quarter of the year were mainly c...

We continue to see more evidence that 2025 will likely be an uneven recovery for South Africa’s agriculture. The horticulture (fruits and vegetables), and field crops (grains, oilseeds and sugarcane) are experiencing excellent yield recovery, benefiting from better summer and winter rains. But the livestock and poultry industries face some constraints. The effects of these divergences are also cle...

South Africa's maize exports are back in the Far East export markets. These aren't new territories for our maize. We typically export to them during the seasons of abundance, such as this one. Last season, we did not see many maize exports to the Far East. Our export activity focused on Africa. The region was hit by the drought and needed maize more than other regions for staple food. South Africa...

South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production estimate was lifted again this month, by 2% from the June 2025 estimate to an expected 18.74 million tonnes (up 21% year-on-year). There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings. This ample harvest will likely add downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for consu...

Various factors, both positive and negative, continue to shape South Africa's agricultural sector. Starting on a positive note, early signs suggest a high likelihood that the upcoming 2025-26 summer season may also present favourable rainfall conditions across South Africa. Current forecasts indicate a neutral season, which would be generally favourable and with average rainfall. But the occurrenc...

Brazil is a major producer of coffee, accounting for nearly 40% of global coffee production. Other major producers are Vietnam 17%, Colombia 8%, Indonesia 6% and Ethiopia 6%, amongst others. Brazil is also a major coffee exporter to the U.S. Consequently, the 50% tariffs that will take effect on August 1 will likely cause Americans headaches. Brazil's coffee is inescapable due to its significance...

The close observers of this letter will recall that when I first argued for South Africa to place temporary restrictions on the imports of poultry products from Brazil, the idea wasn’t for us to be protectionists. Instead, we wanted to ensure that Brazil controls the avian influenza outbreak before we could resume the imports. This decision was not unique to South Africa, but a standard global pra...

In the current world of trade fragmentation, one area the BRICS countries should consider focusing on more in their deliberations this year is deepening intra-BRICS trade. For South Africa's agriculture, this has been a central input in various discussions for some time, reflecting our desire to expand export markets to the BRICS countries, as well as the potential that lies in this region. Curren...

There are some glimpses of positivity that often arise from the agricultural data, which are worth highlighting. Indeed, these do not suggest that all is well with South Africa's agriculture; we continue to struggle with animal disease challenges in cattle farming and the poultry industry. However, if one is in horticulture or field crop production, the operating conditions are more favourable. Th...

Maize demand in the Southern African region is expected to remain strong in the 2025-26 marketing year, which commenced in May (this marketing year corresponds with the 2024-25 production season). One of the countries that imported most maize in Southern Africa in the 2024-25 marketing year was Zimbabwe. The country accounted for 56% of South Africa's maize exports of 2.3 million tonnes that year....

South African farmers and agribusinesses continue to exhibit resilience and optimism. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) -- a sentiment indicator of business conditions in the sector -- although declining from the high levels it reached at the start of this year, remains at encouraging levels. After a notable uptick in the first quarter of 2025, the ACI fell by 5 points in the secon...

We are yet to receive more details on China's intentions to lower import tariffs for various African countries. What is worth emphasising for now is that, from a South African agricultural perspective, this would be a welcome development. China has profound importance in global agriculture. In 2023, China was a leading importer, accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports, with imports value...