2 Question Tuesday Presented by Focused Wealth Management

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacking commercial ships as a statement against Israel, the possibility this becomes an expansion of the Israel-Hamas war, and whether Iran will get involved. They then talk about how these attacks are causing shipping rates to surge, the recent spike in inflation, and whether this will cause the Fed to re-evaluate cutting interest rate...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the stronger-than-expected jobs report which ended the stock market’s nine-week rally. The Nasdaq ended the week down 3.25% — its worst weekly performance since September. They also evaluate the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting and the implication that the Fed will keep interest rates higher longer than the market anticipates with fewer rate cuts. They then tal...

As we enter the new year, we are excited to share our annual “Firm, Economic, and Market Update.” In our 2023 Firm Economic and Market Update video, we highlighted the challenges the markets faced, with the S&P 500 declining by 20% and U.S. bond markets encountering difficulties. Despite the uncertainties, our firm accurately predicted a market rebound. The markets have indeed exhibited a nota...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the recent rally in the stock market leading up to, and immediately after, the Federal Reserve meeting last week and the subsequent declines. They then analyze whether stocks are currently overbought and will this rally continue into the new year. After that they talk about year-end tax planning and the moves investors need to take in their portfolios, such as tax-los...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what they think the Federal Reserve will do at this week’s meeting in light of the S&P 500 closing Monday at its 52-week high after the November Jobs report showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7%, from 3.9% in October. They then answer a client’s question asking if stocks will enter a bear market in 2024 and what we should do to prepare for suc...

Phil, Mike, and Larry answer a question from a Focused Wealth Management client who wonders why with 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds currently yielding about 4.2%, why do the bonds in his portfolio post yields of 2.25%? They then discuss the death of Charlie Munger, the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffet’s right-hand man, and what lessons Phil and Mike have learned from Munger and B...

Since its recent low of 4117 on Oct. 27, the S&P 500 has rallied 10% and the Nasdaq is up 11%. Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how they expect the market to perform from now until the end of the year. They then discuss Focused Wealth Management’s recently released market outlook for 2024. Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As always, if you have any questions at any time, ple...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss a term bandied around in the stock market quite a bit these days: a soft economic landing. They explain what exactly a soft landing is and how we will know if the Fed is able to achieve one. They then ponder why so few people believe that we are in a good economy despite all the evidence saying it is. Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As always, i...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how Congress needs to come up with a budget deal by Nov. 17, what are the implications if a deal can’t be struck, and what happens if we experience a real government shutdown? Then Focused Wealth Management’s Compliance Officer, Zachary Manheim, talks about attending one of the world’s largest compliance conferences at the same time China’s largest bank suffered a cyb...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s jobs report that came in lower than Wall Street expected, revised previous jobs reports lower, and showed unemployment rising. They consider whether this is enough data for the Federal Reserve to stop increasing the Federal Funds rate. They then ponder the Israeli-Hamas war and what the implications of a protracted conflict would mean for the U.S. stock ma...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s report showing third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose 4.9% on an annualized basis. They examine why stocks are falling on such a positive report and does this economic strength mean the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its November meeting? They then talk about the default of one of China’s largest real estate developers, Country Garden Holding...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what’s going on in the markets after the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hit 5% last week for the first time since 2007, and the S&P 500 posted its worst week in a month and fell below its 200-day moving average. They then talk about how the number of junk bonds set to mature in the next 36 months has soared to levels last seen right in 2007. The junk bond...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss whether the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates in light of the fact that we recently had a positive jobs report and two reports showing inflation is still strong, which bolster the case for another rate hike. They then talk about how defense stocks jumped 5% last week in the wake of the Hamas attack on Israel and whether they are going to keep rising. Subm...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel over the weekend, Israel’s declaration that this is a war that won’t be over quickly, and what affect this will have on the U.S. markets. They then talk about the contraction in the M2 money supply, which is the Federal Reserve’s estimate of all the cash and savings vehicles that can be quickly turned into cash, and what this decline m...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss fact that the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are still rising, pushing the 10-year bond up to 4.6%, and question how much higher the yields on these bonds are going to rise. They then talk about how the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measurement, the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose just 0.1% in August, and whether this means the Fed will not raise interest...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what will happen to the markets and the economy if the House of Representatives actually causes a government shutdown in five days. Then with the stock market headed to its worst monthly decline, they address what will happen if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates higher longer than the market expects and how investors should deal with it. Submit your questions t...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the United Auto Workers unprecedented move to strike against all three of the legacy Detroit carmakers simultaneously, and how this will affect the economy and the markets. They then talk about the antitrust trial the US Department of Justice brought against Google last week and what this will do to the tech sector and the market in general? Submit your questions to q...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how high oil prices will rise after oil hit a nine-month high last week on fears about tight supplies as Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their oil production cuts until year end. They then talk about hedge fund investor Dan Niles citing three reasons why he’s betting against Apple, the maker of the iPhone and making it his largest single-stock short position. Niles c...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s economic reports and what they mean for inflation, the possibility of a recession and the Federal Reserve’s view on interest rates. This causes them to ask, can the stock market rally if interest rates stay at this high level for some time? They then talk about the Fed’s demands that regional banks shore up their liquidity, and if the banks can’t meet the...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the problems in China’s economy — dismal consumer spending, a shaky property market, falling exports, record youth unemployment, increasing local government debt, and a real estate sector that’s unraveling — and how they will affect the U.S. economy and markets. They then talk stock buybacks; how many billions of dollars are flowing back into the stock market because...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the implications to the economy as U.S. mortgage rates hit the highest level in 20 years, which combined with a housing inventory shortage has pushed housing affordability to its worst point since 1984. They then talk about how the stock market has fallen 5% since the end of July, if this drop will hit the low last seen in October, and how long will the recovery take?...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Schwab and TD Ameritrade merger and what it means for investors using their platforms, specifically, will there be additional charges? They then talk about U.S. credit-card balances surpassing $1 trillion last quarter for the first time and what the implications are for the markets and the broader economy. Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what last week’s downgrade by Fitch Ratings of the government’s AAA credit rating to AA+ means to the economy and the safety of Treasury bonds. They then discuss the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond’s yield rising above 4% again. They then explain how if you buy a bond today with a 3.5% coupon you will receive a yield at maturity greater than 4%. Submit your questions to qu...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how last week’s strong GDP report caused economists to re-evaluate their projections for a recession and it looks like the U.S. is returning a Goldilocks economy that is neither too hot nor too cold. Does this mean this is a risk-on environment and that investors should put all their money to work? They then address how the strong GDP and lowered expectations for a re...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the “Green Jobs” politicians talk about. What are these jobs? Where are they? And in which industries are these jobs found? They then address the wide divergence in performance between growth and value stocks year to date. Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser dire...