2 Question Tuesday Presented by Focused Wealth Management

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the significant decline in inflation with both the CPI and Producer Price Index posting the smallest increases in two years. Will this lead the Fed to stop raising interest rates? They then address the U.S. dollar dropping to a 15-month low and what this means for both consumers and the economy. Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As always, if you...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what caused last week’s surge in bond yields with the 2-year U.S. Treasury note crossing 5% and the 10-year bond hitting 4%, and forecast how high yields will go. They then address the decline in stocks since the beginning of July, and will the artificial intelligence-tech rally fizzle out with more rate hikes? Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how the Supreme Court’s ruling against President Biden’s plan to slash student debt will take a significant chunk of cash out of the economy and how this will affect the markets? They then address the slow down in consumer spending, how central banks feel that inflation remains too high, and the possibility of more rate hikes. Submit your questions to question@2questi...

With about $1.4 trillion of commercial real estate loans due this year and next, Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the debt time bomb in commercial real estate and what this could mean for the economy and the markets, and how people should prepare for it. They then talk about how June U.S. business activity expanded at the slowest pace in three months, held back by a deep contraction at factories, and...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause on raising interest rates last Wednesday, after 15 months of increases, as well as it’s decision to likely resume tightening as soon as next month. They then address the question of whether bonds are now more attractive than equities. Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As always, if you have any questions at...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the stock market rally in Artificial Intelligence, known as AI, and how Focused Wealth Management is investing in this sector for its clients. They then address the question of whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June or finally pause its schedule of rate hikes and what this will mean for the stock and bond markets. Submit your questions to questi...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what President Biden’s ending of the debt-ceiling crisis and Friday’s huge jobs report means for the market. They then address a Bloomberg article that says, around the world a backlash is brewing against the hegemony of the U.S. dollar. Bloomberg said many global leaders feel the dollar is being weaponized, in an effort to push America’s foreign-policy priorities — a...

Phil, Mike, and Larry address how the debt ceiling debate has caused bond yields to rise dramatically all across the board and whether this is a good time to buy bonds. They then discuss whether it’s better to buy bond funds or individual bonds in this environment. Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your...

Phil, Mike, and Larry again discuss the debt ceiling debate after President Biden and top lawmakers once again postponed a meeting on Friday to discuss it for the second consecutive week, leaving just two weeks to make a deal. They then address the rally in technology stocks, which are up nearly 20 percent year to date. Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As always, if you have...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the debt ceiling debate after President Biden and top lawmakers postponed Friday’s meeting. However, there are just four days when both the House and Senate are scheduled to be in session before June 1, which is the date when the US could default on its obligations. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the failure to raise the debt ceiling before the U.S. runs ou...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Friday’s jobs report which showed that U.S. hiring and workers’ pay gains accelerated in April, a sign of labor-market resilience. With nonfarm payrolls coming in much higher than Wall Street’s forecast and the unemployment rate falling back to a multi-decade low of 3.4%, will the Federal Reserve have to raise rates in June. They then talk about how rising interes...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the idea that there is a bubble in commercial real estate and the forecast from Morgan Stanley that market prices could plunge as much as 40% over the next two years, worse than in the Great Financial Crisis. This throws another wrinkle into small and regional banks that are the biggest source of credit to the $20 trillion market and hold 80% of the sector’s outstandi...

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how despite the market’s rally after Silicon Valley Bank went belly up, there are signs that a significant credit crunch is coming and liquidity is drying up. It’s been more than 10 years since it’s been this hard to borrow money, say small businesses. The Fed said banks have tightened lending standards, distressed corporate debt has rocketed 300%, bond and loan de...

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how earnings season will provide the next test of how companies have managed headwinds like banking system stress, higher rates and slowing demand. All lead indicators point to a deeper profit recession than expected. They then discuss Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, who said Wall Street’s attitude toward stocks is the most negative in several years. H...

Phil, Mike, and Larry examine the 15% drop in the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond over the last four weeks and what that means for equities. They then look at the dollar’s 14% decline since September when it hit parity with the Euro, and what it means for stocks, bonds and rate hikes.  Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As always, if you have any questions at any time,...

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the health of the U.S. Shadow Banking system and private equity firms following the slew of recent bank failures. A recent Bank of America survey found that investors’ biggest concern in the wake of these failures is a systemic credit event that could be caused by the shadow banking system. They then address the Bank of Japan appointing a new leader who is expected...

It looks like the turmoil in the U.S. banking sector is spreading to Europe. Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about Deutsche Bank’s 10% decline last week as the cost of insuring its debt against default surged, which sparked a selloff in European bank stocks. They then address how this turbulence is affecting money market funds as investors to flee to cash in the biggest rush since the onset of the pand...

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the UBS takeover of its troubled rival, Credit Suisse, in a quickly arranged deal on Sunday, and ask if this will shore up the global financial system? This takeover is the most consequential fallout from the implosions of both Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank just a week ago. They then address the questions on many people’s minds- is this 2008 all over again...

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about why regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank on Friday and took control of its deposits in what is the largest U.S. bank failure since the global financial crisis 15 years ago, and the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. They also discuss the closing of Signature Bank on Sunday, making it the third-largest bank failure. Then they evaluate what all this means...

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about why bond yields are rising again after the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hit 4% last week. Then they discuss the saber rattling going on between China and the U.S. after the U.S. shot down a Chinese spy balloon and how this will affect the equity and fixed income markets. Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As always, if you have any questions at an...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up all this year’s gains. Partly it’s hotter-than-expected inflation numbers, but also valuations. They talk valuations and Bloomberg saying, “the S&P 500 is roughly 20% more expensive than it ever was during the Internet bubble.” After that they consider the storms hitting California and whether the wreckage has a big imp...

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the Big Oil companies reporting that their profits doubled last year in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and what the outlook for oil is in 2023. They then discuss the CPI, retail sales, and wholesale prices coming in higher than expected in January and where they see inflation going for the rest of the year. Submit your questions to question@2questiontues...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Federal Reserve’s schedule of rate hikes after Citigroup’s head of Asia Pacific trading strategies said the Fed might raise rates to 6% instead of 5%. Even Neel Kashkari, the president of the Fed Bank of Minneapolis and Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, agree that rates will rise above 5%. They then discuss the Citigroup strategist’s prediction that fair value...

Last week, the January jobs report showed an increase of 517,000 jobs sending the unemployment rate down to 3.4%, its lowest rate since 1969. Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what this means for the Federal Reserve’s schedule of rate hikes and what it means for the stock and bond markets. They then discuss what poor earnings from the tech sector — Amazon and Google posted ho-hum earnings and Apple po...

January has been the tech sector’s best month since July. The Nasdaq 100 Stock Index is up nearly 11% since the year began, double the rise in the S&P 500 Index. Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why investors are driving the market higher while analysts say this may be the worst earnings season for tech since 2016.They discuss what’s going on in the tech sector and what are investors thinking. Th...