2 Question Tuesday Presented by Focused Wealth Management

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the increased tariffs President Biden placed on $18 billion in Chinese imports — including electric vehicles, advanced batteries, solar cells, steel, aluminum and medical equipment — and their effect on the U.S. economy and the consumer. They then talk about strategies people use to pass along wealth before they die without incurring taxes. Submit your questions to qu...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Barclays’ new strategy to buy inflation hedges in the U.S. Treasury market in the wake of the Presidential Debate and the idea that Trump may win the presidency and cause inflation to rise. They then talk about how the S&P 500 has gone 387 days without a 2% sell-off, which is the longest stretch since the financial crisis, according to FactSet. And it’s come with...

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the U.S. Treasury market about to break even on the year after a first half which felt like a roller coaster ride. Having fallen 3.4% in April, bonds are now down just 0.1% year to date. They then discuss Morgan Stanley getting sued last week for failing to secure reasonable interest rates on its customers cash balances and how Focused Wealth Management handles cli...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how three companies now make up 20% of the S&P 500 Index and if buying an S&P fund in this environment create undo risk? They then address a new plan from former president Trump on replacing the income tax with tariffs and if this idea will send inflation soaring by raising the price on most imported goods by as much as 110%? Submit your questions to question@...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how a million homes since 2019 have been bought with an adjustable-rate mortgage. Many of these loans are set at a rate lower than the prevailing 30-year interest rate for the first few years, then adjusted based on current borrowing costs. Coming out of the fixed period after interest rates soared is terrible timing for more than 330,000 borrowers. These payments cou...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last Wednesday’s comments by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who said he expects problems to emerge in the $1.7 trillion private-credit industry, particularly as retail clients gain access to the booming asset class. They then talk about last week’s weak sale of Treasuries, which sparked concerns that funding the US deficit will drive up yields at a time when the Fede...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Nvidia’s stellar earnings, the subsequent market rally, and what this means for the tech sector going forward. They then talk about the Federal Reserve and it’s governors repeatedly telling the market the Fed plans to keep interest rates higher for longer with the possibility of a rate hike, and how this will affect the stock market for the rest of the year. Submit yo...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s historic crossing of the 40,000-point milestone last week, what has been driving the rally that helped the market hit 40,000 and what the next big milestone will be. They then discuss the copper market, which saw the metal’s price climb to more than $10,000 a ton last week in London.  Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesda...

Phil, Mike, and Zac celebrate a special edition of 2 Question Tuesday, honoring the four-year anniversary of the show’s first episode. A lot has changed over the past four years, so first Phil and Mike discuss what they’ve learned about both the stock and bond markets during that time. They then reflect on the origins of the podcast, and why they decided to start it in the first place. We want to...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to keep interest rates unchanged and the softer-than-expected jobs report out Friday that has the market thinking we will get a rate cut sooner than later. They then talk about a plan by conservative economists to get former-President Trump to embrace a flat tax of 17%, should he get elected, and what this would mean for the na...

Phil, Mike, and Zac discuss what’s going on in the tech sector after Meta posts a huge drop in its stock price after saying it’s going to spend more on A.I. and similar news from Alphabet and Microsoft sparks a Nasdaq rally. They then talk about what’s going in the economy after GDP came in slower than expected, posting the smallest increase in two years, and the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the SEC’s new rule to require trade settlement to happen the day after the trade takes place, T+1, and how long will it be before trades are settled instantaneously. They then discuss the Biden Administration’s proposal to tax unrealized gains on stocks, land, and other assets. Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As always, if you have any questions...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the falling stock market. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 921 points, or 2.4%, for its largest weekly loss since March last year, and the S&P 500 posted its biggest weekly loss in 2024. With Monday’s decline the Dow is now flat on the year. They then talk about the global oil benchmark Brent jumping above $92 on Friday, a six-month high, and futur...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the mixed signals the Fed is giving off. One Fed Bank president says we’re close to seeing rates cut. Another says there will be no rate cuts. And a third suggests we will see another rate hike. What is in the water there? Since the market expects rate cuts before the end of the year, what should we expect if the market believes there will be no rate cuts this year? T...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Department of Justice’s antitrust lawsuit against Apple and what this means for both Apple and the tech sector in general. Then Mike, Focused Wealth Management’s director of financial planning, follows up last week’s podcast with more financial-planning moves people should be aware of before April 15, the tax filing deadline. Submit your questions to question@2que...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Phil’s three-year-old prediction for Dow 40,000 in 10 years, what he saw in December 2020 that led him to make that forecast, and what he sees now as the Dow approaches that milestone. Then Mike, Focused Wealth Management’s Director Of Financial Planning, explains financial-planning moves people should be aware of before April 15, the tax filing deadline. Submit your...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s reports, such as the producer price index, which rose the most in six months, and other data show that inflation remains elevated. They then talk about the interest rate cuts that seemed inevitable a few months back, which now appear to be delayed until mid-summer. After that, Charles Yarnold, Managing Director of Retirement Plan Services at Focused Wealth...

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how one year after the fall of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the commercial real estate crisis took its first victim, New York Community Bancorp, which has seen its stock plunge 73% this year. They then discuss if we should we expect more regional banks to fall into trouble. After that, they address the huge rally in Bitcoin and whether it’s connected to...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s comments by Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, where she said there’s no urgent need to cut interest rates given the strength of the economy. They then talk about how access to automobile credit is the lowest since August 2020, while the percentage of US auto loans delinquent 90 days or more rose above the 15-year average of...

Phil, Mike, and Larry return to discussing the looming commercial real estate loan crisis and if we should be worried about the fallout in commercial real estate. The potential size of this crisis becomes clearer as deals pick up across the country and show real estate prices in Manhattan and L.A. falling as much as 50%. Then to celebrate Focused Wealth Management’s 30th anniversary, Phil and Mike...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the stickiness of inflation after the producer price index for January, a measurement of wholesale prices, came in stronger than expected. This was right after the consumer price index was also higher than Wall Street estimated. What do these two reports mean for rate cuts this year? They then talk about regulators giving greater scrutiny to the portfolios of commerci...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the latest print of the consumer price index, which came out Tuesday morning, and what this means for the Federal Reserve and for interest rate cuts this year. They then talk about what investors should look for when investing in the hot new sector of Artificial Intelligence. Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com As always, if you have any questions a...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how the narrative about the economy and rate cuts was turned upside down last week after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, removed its bias toward hiking, and said that the economy was expanding at a solid pace, right before the latest jobs report came in stronger than expected. They then talk about how 80% of fourth-quarter earnings have so far beate...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, increasing only 0.2% in December, and 2.9% on a yearly basis, a three-year low. They examine if the Fed could start lowering interest rates soon or if we’ll see another jump in inflation as shipping rates rise due to the Houthis continuing to fire on cargo ships in the Red Sea. They...

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss whether investors should jump back into the market with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hitting new all-time highs, tech stocks rallying again, consumer confidence rising, inflation expectations falling, and Americans suddenly feeling more upbeat about the economy. They then talk about why small-cap stocks are still 25% off their all-time highs even as the large-caps s...