Unhedged

Ackman is one of most well-known investors in the US, and one of the loudest. He has more than a million followers on X and isn’t afraid to argue with any of them. But his active social media feed and his fundraising seem to be at odds. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and James Fontanella-Khan dissect the remains of Ackman’s cancelled IPO. Also we go short Italy and long hypocrisy.  For a fr...

On Monday, markets around the world agreed to go into a tailspin. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and guest Nick Megaw try to figure out what drove it all. They cover unemployment, manufacturing, the Japanese carry trade, the Magnificent Seven, and the foolishness of the retail investor. Also we go long Google, and long CNBC at midnight.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go...

Tesla’s earnings slightly disappointed last week, but its stock is still valued at nearly 100 times earnings. Does this make sense? And what exactly is Tesla anyway? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and reporter Aiden Reiter take apart Tesla and try to sort out an eclectic basket of electric cars, self-driving taxis, humanoid robots and other grand plans for the future. Also we go long the yen and...

Wall Street withheld tens of millions of dollars in campaign financing to pressure US President Joe Biden to withdraw from November’s election and endorse Kamala Harris. And it worked. But how did Wall Street get so interested in a public prosecutor from San Francisco? And what do financiers hope she’ll bring to the table? Today on the show, deals reporter James Fontanella-Khan walks Robert Armstr...

Presidential candidate Donald Trump has argued for a weaker dollar in recent interviews. That makes some sense. A weaker currency can increase exports and narrow a trade deficit. But how does one weaken a currency, and is it really a good idea? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and new Unhedged newsletter reporter Aiden Reiter discuss the options. Also, we go long tomatoes and short Lamb Weston, no...

As the election nears, Wall Street is starting to talk more about what a bet on a second Trump presidency might look like. Today on the show, we cover possible outcomes for inflation, long-term bond yields, currency manipulation, corporate taxes, protectionism, isolationism, threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve and even the rally in small-cap stocks. Also we go long sterling and shor...

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority just released rule revisions that are meant to attract new listings on the country’s exchanges. These include legalising shares that move a lot of the power from investors to founders. Will this be enough to restart London as a hub for innovation? Today on the show Katie Martin and UK business correspondent Michael O’Dwyer talk about the new rules and whether t...

Last week the FT’s Moral Money writer Simon Mundy spoke with venture capitalist Vinod Khosla about 20 years of making big, long bets on renewable energy. Some have paid off, but most haven’t. Khosla is fine with that, and continues to look for big wins in the very long run on solutions such as fusion. Today on the show, Simon and Katie Martin discuss the future of green tech. Also, we short cars a...

Paramount and Skydance are merging. That’s a win for David Ellison, whose small studio will join a legendary one with a huge back catalogue and a nascent streaming platform. But is this merger of the old and new enough to compete in the new Hollywood? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and deals reporter James Fontanella-Khan talk about the Paramount deal and the future of entertainment. Also, we...

Recent elections have changed politics in Europe, delivering a centre-left Labour government in the UK and shifting seats to a left alliance in the French parliament. Today on the show, Katie Martin discusses this new landscape, and what it means for global markets and finance, with the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles. Also, we short political journalists and opinion polls.  Take the U...

Ted Pick became chief executive of Morgan Stanley earlier this year. In a recent letter to shareholders, he touted “the integrated firm” as a model for the bank's future. But it’s not a new idea, and it’s one that has proven very hard for banks to actually do. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong asks the FT’s US banking editor, Josh Franklin, if it’s even a good idea. Also we short the US housing mar...

On Thursday, two candidates for US president will debate each other. They are both protectionists. This is a huge change in US economic policy, and one that may have massive consequences in the decades to come. Today on the show, Robert Armstrong talks with the FT’s chief economics commentator, Martin Wolf, about the past and future of industrial policy. Also we go long ageing and long babies. For...

Golden Goose had a simple plan. Mass produce worn out sneakers, get stars to wear them, and sell them to the public. It was going great until the owner announced an IPO, and then pulled it. Today on the show, Katie Martin and James Fontenella-Khan discuss. Also, we go long German football and long sterling.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedged...

On Thursday, shareholders of Tesla voted to re-approve a deal to reward Elon Musk with more than $50 billion worth of shares in Tesla, thus making one of the world’s richest men even richer. Also we go long teams without stars and short climate change.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.arms...

The Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, and markets went whooshing upwards, as if they thought no-move was a clear signal about the next move. For a bit anyway. Today on the show, Katie Martin is joined by Chris Giles, the FT’s economics commentator, to talk about the Fed and the crucial next few months before the US election in November. Also we short transatlantic rate arbitrage, exa...

Researchers at the University of Chicago took a fairly standard large language model of AI and fed it a bunch of balance sheets and income statements and asked it to make predictions about earnings. In backtests, AI beat human calls by a small margin, and outperformed the market generally. Have fund managers been dealt yet another kill shot? Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong discuss, and go long s...

Nvidia continues its rocket-like rise: Investors have piled in, as have day traders who play the stock with options. This is causing banks and market makers to load up on shares in order to cover trades. It's a feedback loop traders call the gamma squeeze, and some are concerned it’s distorting markets. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks about Nvidia and the gamma squeeze with correspondent Geo...

It’s a big year for democracy. Voters in Mexico and India just went to the polls. Elections in the UK and US are still to come. On today’s show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin talk through how markets are responding to the elections in Mexico and India. And they analyse how markets might react to the UK and US elections. Also, we go short slugs and stock-based compensation. For a free 30-day trial...

At a recent meeting of the G20, Brazil invited economist Gabriel Zucman to address the most powerful nations in the world, and argue for a global tax on the super-rich. Today on the show, European economics commentator Martin Sandbu joins Robert Armstrong to discuss whether a worldwide tax on the very richest could even happen, and how it might work. Also, we short the commercial real estate crisi...

Red Lobster used to be a respectable place to eat too much seafood. Now it’s bankrupt. Today on the show, host Rob Armstrong and the FT's Wall Street editor Sujeet Indap put on their bibs and pick apart the exoskeleton of a fast-casual icon. They talk about pasta water, real estate, and whether the real killer was the all-you-can-eat shrimp promotion. Also we go long Chili’s, and deliver the resul...

Commercial property values in the UK and the US have been slow to adjust to the sharp increase in interest rates. Are sellers refusing to accept reality? Or has the property economy simply put itself on hold? Joshua Oliver covers real estate (and crypto) for the FT, and he walks us through it all. And talks about crypto.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.f...

The price of cocoa has exploded. Over the past year, it’s up about 300 percent. Today on the show, Katie Martin and commodities reporter Susannah Savage try to figure out what’s behind the run-up in cocoa, olive oil and other staples. Also we go long gardening and short AI copying our voices.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can e...

Bridgewater Associates is one of the largest hedge funds in the world, and one of the most unusual. Its founder, Ray Dalio, has retired and moved on to other things, such as deep sea submarines. Can the new chief executive keep the group’s legendary returns going? Today on the show, reporter Ortenca Aliaj joins Rob Armstrong to discuss. Also we go long Walmart and short the troubled merger of Jenn...

‘Roaring Kitty’, aka Keith Gill, aka the GameStop memelord, leaned in again this week, sparking a massive rally in the retailer and its sidekick, AMC. FT correspondents Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take stock of the mayhem and ask if it's a sign that the animal spirits are back. Also we short gruelling exams and go long utilities.   For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go...

It's high noon for Paramount Studios, one of the most legendary names in Hollywood. In one corner, Wall Street and private equity. In the other corner, talented producer David Ellison, head of Skydance. OK, to be fair, he’s partnering with private equity, too. Today on the show, we break down the boss battle for Paramount with deals editor James Fontanella-Khan. Also we talk about sports. For a fr...