The Open Bell

Today on The Open Bell: US forces have struck Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is hitting back, and Brent crude is up more than 5% in a single session to nearly $95 a barrel, because roughly one in every five barrels of oil on earth flows through that waterway and someone just turned it into a conflict zone. That oil shock is already showing up in European inflation, which jumped...

Today on The Open Bell: The US struck Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions across the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, oil jumped 5.2% in a single session, and if you're wondering what that means for the price of filling up your car, the answer is: nothing good. Japan's 10-year government bond yield just crossed 3% for the first time since 1996, which sounds like a footnote from a different...

Today on The Open Bell: US forces have now struck Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz twice since July, Iran has fired back at American bases in Jordan, and oil is above $86 a barrel, which means this isn't a distant geopolitical story anymore, it's a pump-price story. The yen is closing in on 160 to the dollar, a level that last time cost Japan tens of billions to defend, and Amer...

Today on The Open Bell: The new Fed Chair used his first Jackson Hole speech to tell the world that another rate hike is back on the table, and the September odds just jumped to 60%, which is a long way from the cuts everyone was pricing in six months ago. Gold had the best month this century in August, up roughly 14%, and then one afternoon speech from a Fed Chair erased nearly 3% of that in a ma...

Today on The Open Bell: The Fed is openly split heading into Jackson Hole, with at least one regional president pushing for rate hikes while the rest of the world waits for Friday morning's speech from the chair, and if you own a home, a pension, or basically anything, that speech could move it. Australia's inflation just came in hotter than anyone expected, and for the roughly one-in-th...

Today on The Open Bell: The Fed's preferred inflation measure just came in hotter than expected, 3.7% year-over-year, and suddenly the question of whether the Fed raises interest rates again isn't as settled as markets thought it was last week. South Korea's central bank just hiked rates for the second month in a row, and the story isn't really about Seoul: it's a signal t...

Today on The Open Bell: Nvidia just reported $93 billion in a single quarter, roughly 95% more than a year ago, and then told investors to expect even more, which raises a genuine question: at what point does "AI demand" stop being a growth story and start being a test of whether anything in the economy can actually absorb this much money moving in one direction. Oil slipped below $85 a...

Today on The Open Bell: The US just threatened to cut off from the global dollar system any bank, anywhere on earth, that keeps doing business with Iran, and gave them a countdown clock to comply before the consequences hit. South Korea's stock market just had its worst day in weeks because Washington is reportedly leaning on the companies that make the memory chips inside every major AI syst...

Today on The Open Bell: The US government is now paying more to borrow money for 30 years than it has since before the first iPhone shipped, and the Treasury's attempt to calm the bond market lasted about 48 hours before the yield crawled right back up to 5.27%. Nvidia reports earnings this week, and at this point the entire US stock market has essentially stopped pretending it's about a...

Today on The Open Bell: Walmart just posted its weakest US sales growth in six years, low-income shoppers are pulling back hard under the weight of fuel costs, and the company's own leadership won't promise the next quarter looks any better. The UAE has cut all financial ties with Iran following ballistic missile strikes on its territory, and Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, is now...

Today on The Open Bell: The US Treasury just doubled its long-bond buyback cap to $4 billion a quarter, and whether you call it market management or something closer to the government quietly buying its own debt at record prices, it worked, because 30-year yields dropped the moment the announcement landed. The Fed's July meeting minutes are out, and the part nobody's talking about loudly...

Today on The Open Bell: The US-Iran ceasefire expired yesterday with nothing to show for it, and Iran is now threatening to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly one barrel in every five of the world's oil supply. US government borrowing costs for 30 years just hit 5.31%, a level we haven't seen since 2007, and if you think that's just a bond market probl...

Today on The Open Bell: Iran's latest threats to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries roughly one in five barrels of oil shipped globally, are keeping crude above $84 a barrel, and that number doesn't stay in the Gulf forever — it follows you to the petrol station. BHP just reported a 30% jump in profit to $13.2 billion, and the bigger story buried inside those numbers i...

Today on The Open Bell: The US and Canada have 48 hours to cut a deal before a 50% tariff lands on roughly 20 billion dollars' worth of Canadian exports, and if they don't, the price of things like cheese, wine, and new cars goes up for real people on both sides of the border. Meanwhile, the US government just sold 30-year bonds, borrowing money guaranteed until 2056, at the highest inte...

Today on The Open Bell: Inflation came in cooler in July and the White House is taking a bow, but real wages are still negative, meaning prices are still rising faster than most people's pay, and that's been true every single month this year. Japan's wholesale prices have risen for five months straight and a rate hike in September is now almost a certainty, which sounds like someone...

Today on The Open Bell: The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly shut for six months now and the IEA says the world is heading into the third quarter short by 1.8 million barrels a day, which is the kind of number that doesn't stay in the energy market for long before it shows up in your petrol bill. India just recorded its lowest inflation in seven years and almost nobody in the West is talking...

Today on The Open Bell: The July inflation number just came in hotter than expected, and the reason is pretty direct: the collapse of US-Iran peace talks sent oil prices climbing, and that cost has now worked its way into your grocery receipt and your petrol bill in one clean, ugly line. The 50% tariff on Canadian imports takes effect in seven days, and the uncomfortable part isn't just the p...

Today on The Open Bell: Iran's foreign minister just ruled out direct talks with Washington and renewed demands over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that 20% of the world's oil supply passes through, and crude is already up 5% this week, which means this isn't a geopolitical footnote, it's heading straight for your petrol bill. Berkshire Hathaway posted a 16% jump in...

Today on The Open Bell: The US economy shed jobs in July for the first time since February, and the bizarre part is that markets loved it, because bad news for workers still reads as good news for rate cuts and stocks closed at record highs on Friday. Iran ruled out any talks on the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and there are reports of a tanker strike, which means roughly a fifth of the world...

Today on The Open Bell: The US economy slowed sharply in Q2 and inflation is finally cooling, but both things are happening for the same reason, which is that oil prices fell, which is itself a consequence of the Middle East conflict, so the "good news" on prices and the "bad news" on growth aren't really two separate stories. A drone hit an American gas tanker in Egypt ye...

Today on The Open Bell: The Fed held rates steady again, but three of its own members wanted a hike, the bond market threw a fit, and long-term borrowing costs are now at levels most people haven't seen since the mid-2000s — so "on hold" is doing a lot of work as a phrase right now. Iran fired ballistic missiles at US troops in Jordan, every one of them was intercepted, and oil stil...

Today on The Open Bell: Iran fired ballistic missiles at US troops in the Middle East overnight, every one was intercepted, and oil prices surged more than 4% anyway, because markets don't price what happened, they price what comes next. The Fed held rates steady for the fifth meeting in a row, which sounds boring until you realise your mortgage rate and your savings rate have both been froze...

Today on The Open Bell: South Korea had to hit the pause button on its entire stock market this morning as the global bet on AI spending started looking a lot shakier than it did last week. A Chinese memory chip company you've almost certainly never heard of briefly became worth more than Walmart on its very first day of trading, and that tells you something important about where Beijing thin...

Today on The Open Bell: Oil just had its worst day in months, and the reason is genuinely good news: Iran and the US have agreed to stop hitting each other, at least for now, and the relief in energy markets was immediate and dramatic. The European Central Bank held rates steady at 2.25% last week, but the message underneath the pause was clear enough that anybody with a mortgage or a business loa...

Today on The Open Bell: Oil crossed $100 a barrel overnight because Houthi rebels in Yemen set fire to a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, and if you're wondering what that has to do with your petrol bill, the answer is: quite a lot, quite soon. Alphabet beat its revenue forecast and still got punished by markets, because it told investors it plans to spend $205 billion on AI this year and Wall St...