The Informed Investor

Episode 27: Do small capitalization stocks typically outperform in January? If so, can investors capitalize on that pattern? This trend is known as the January Effect. It's a popular idea because historical data show a sizable small cap premium versus large caps in January. Still, that's not a reason to avoid small cap stocks in other months, assuming you want to own them. Why not? Two reasons: (1...

Episode 26: Can anyone accurately predict when the stock market will hit a rough patch? Not likely. Although the market's long-term annualized return sits just above 10% and good years are more common than bad years, unexpected outcomes are not unusual. Which means holding a portfolio suitable for all market environments probably makes sense for most investors—as does conducting an investing "fire...

Episode 25: At the end of every calendar year, stock market pundits publish predictions for the coming 12 months. Should you pay attention to these forecasts? A look back at predictions for 2025 may help you decide. Some market pros argued that international stocks would struggle due to tensions around global trade and tariff policies. But that's not what happened. From January through the end of...

Episode 24: Why do the majority of ETF and mutual fund managers fail to outperform their benchmarks? The reasons are numerous but not always clear. As a result, many investors might believe they own winning funds that will continue to beat their benchmarks or the market at large. But they might be wrong, on both counts. Other investors might be painfully aware that their funds are underperforming...

Episode 23: Are there any connections between betting on sports and investing in stocks? Obviously, investing is not the same as placing a bet on your favorite team. For most people, after all, investing is usually a long-term endeavor. But you might be surprised to learn how the betting lines that drive wagering in sports are not unlike prices set by buyers and sellers in securities markets. Poin...

Episode 22: Regardless of which way the market is moving, do you feel thankful as an investor? That's easy when the market is rising, but it may be challenging if stock prices are falling. Worrying about your portfolio can be unnerving. At Dimensional, we hope everyone can have a rewarding investment experience. But our view is that great returns aren't the only thing worth celebrating. We're than...

Episode 21: What are the essential money moves for people over 50? By this point, many are beginning to prepare for retirement. Some may have built up significant wealth and gotten used to spending it after hitting their peak earning years. Others may be focused on preserving their wealth but feel unsure about whether they'll have enough for the decades ahead. "Lifestyle creep"—getting accustomed...

Episode 20: How should you manage your money from ages 18 to 50? When to start saving—and how much—are questions many adults begin to consider when they start their first job. Employer retirement programs, such as 401(k) plans, typically offer easy ways to save that come with tax advantages. Many employers will match a significant portion of contributions by employees to help them build their nest...

Episode 19: Is gold worth owning? Many investors are probably asking themselves that question after marveling at gold's recent returns. From January 1, 2024, through September 30, 2025, the metal's spot price soared more than 87%, doubling the performance of the S&P 500. Still, strong returns in the past don't tell us what's going to happen in the months and years ahead. So a decision to invest in...

Episode 18: Are you spooked by stock market headlines? When investors look back at market history, they'll find a grotesquely gory list of horrible headlines. "The Death of Equities" (1982), "Apocalypse Soon" (1993), and "The End Is Near" (2018) are just three examples. Several other hair-raising headlines probably had many investors hunting for monsters under the bed. But here's the thing: More o...

Episode 17: Are taxes hurting your investment returns? Investors holding mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in taxable accounts seek to capture high after-tax returns, not just rewarding pre-tax returns. But achieving that goal depends on how the funds are managed. Using efficient portfolio design and tax-smart implementation, some funds are able to limit capital gains and income distri...

Episode 16: Can you imagine another "Black Monday" in the stock market? On October 19, 1987, the S&P 500 plunged 20.5%, the biggest single-day drop in history. Panic selling occurred in markets around the world.   A new product from US investment firms, known as "portfolio insurance," had become popular and it accelerated the crash's pace as initial losses led to further rounds of selling, accordi...

Episode 15: Does technology help—or hurt—the workforce? Will AI take your job? Millions of Americans are no doubt wondering how artificial intelligence will alter their career trajectories. Some may fear they'll need to drastically shift gears because the job opportunities they thought would be plentiful may suddenly disappear. But the funny thing about technology, according to labor market expert...

Episode 14: Does cryptocurrency like bitcoin have a positive expected return—and, if so, why? Cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography for security. Transactions are recorded on a decentralized network called a blockchain. Since 2010, when bitcoin started trading at a price of just pennies, the value of one coin has climbed past $100,000. Some investors may think the...

Episode 13: Can you take advantage of artificial intelligence (AI) in your portfolio? It's one of the most common investor questions regarding the rise of AI, a game-changing technology that seems to be affecting life in new ways almost every day. By now, most people are probably familiar with common AI tools like ChatGPT that rely on large language models, which are advanced systems that understa...

Episode 12: IPOs are hot again in 2025. Should you try to get in on the action? Initial public offerings (IPOs), particularly those involving well-known companies, often draw considerable attention from investors. Historically, while the most common path to enter public markets was through an IPO, entryways such special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) and direct listings are drawing fresh at...

Episode 11: Do private investments deserve a place in your portfolio? Some investors may see private assets as a tool to boost returns and increase diversification. Research on these questions is ongoing. Private investments tend to comprise illiquid assets that trade infrequently. As a result, their valuations may be difficult to assess, and their returns may behave quite differently than those o...

Episode 10: When you invest, where does the money go? While investors may be comfortable putting their money in vehicles like mutual funds and ETFs, they may be unclear or confused about what happens to their money once it's invested. A fund's structure is governed by law, and the regulatory and legal requirements applicable to mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) encourage clearly define...

Episode 9: Enticing pitches for "buffered" strategies promise protection against downside risks in stocks. Are they worth it? Should investors sacrifice some upside for lowering the risks of losing money?   So-called "defined outcome strategies" offer a way to hedge downside equity risk in exchange for lower participation during market upswings.   There is typically a downside protection amount (t...

Episode 8: Is the stock market expensive or a good value? Stock valuation ratios, which measure stock prices against a financial metric like a company's earnings or book value, offer investors some information about the expected returns of the market or individual stocks at any point in time. If a valuation ratio, literally the price divided by the financial metric, is considered elevated relative...

Episode 7: You might say stock market volatility is like a deep-sea fishing trip: Sounds fun until the ride really gets choppy. While the market was relatively calm in recent weeks, that wasn't true in the spring. The S&P 500 Index notched returns of at least +1% or –1% on 12 out of 20 days in March, which was double the frequency of such returns over the past 30 years. Then, in early April, we sa...

Episode 6: When the stock market soars to new highs, does that offer a useful signal for where the market is headed? Should you make a move—or stay in your seat? These questions confound many investors, especially those who may worry that the market is due for a big fall. But investors may be surprised to find out that average returns over one, three, and five years after a new market high are sim...

Episode 5: Interest rates tend to have an impact on everyday life, from savings rates and student loans to credit cards, mortgages, and more. For investors, rate cuts (and hikes) by the US Federal Reserve often prompt the question: How do different interest rate environments affect my portfolio? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut interest rates on September 18, 2024, the first of three c...

How do changes in the economy impact stock returns over the short and long term? Whether responding to economic forecasts, consumer price changes, or tariff policy updates, market prices adapt to new information, including changes in gross domestic product (GDP). Luckily for investors, markets are forward-looking and generally react before changes in the economy show up in the macroeconomic data....

US government debt as a percentage of GDP (gross domestic product) reached 121% at the end of 2024. Many investors may have concerns about the impact of this level of debt on the stock market. While government spending associated with debt may provide a stimulatory effect on the economy, the prospect of higher future taxes and long-run impacts on spending and investment introduces many channels th...