The Fourcast

What has Donald Trump got out of his two day trip to Beijing? There are some roses from the Chinese President Xi Jinping for the White House Rose Garden apparently. But a trade deal? An end to the war in Iran? The Strait of Hormuz reopened? That all seemed rather more elusive.  And what about Xi Jinping?  Did he get to show that China is now America's equal on the global stage? Access to US te...

A leaked Pentagon assessment claims China is using the Iran war to strengthen its position against the United States economically, militarily and diplomatically, US media is reporting.  Donald Trump is in Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping, where the Chinese ruler has been warned that if the Taiwan issue is not handled carefully it could lead to a conflict between the super powers.  On this epis...

The battle for Number 10 is on. After Angela Rayner announced HMRC had cleared her over the tax scandal that led to her resignation, attention quickly shifted to the growing leadership turmoil inside Labour. Following days of speculation, Wes Streeting announced his resignation from government but - so far - hasn’t challenged  Keir Starmer for the leadership In this episode of The Fourcast, we exa...

It’s another febrile day in Westminster with Prime Minister Keir Starmer - for now - clinging on but he's far from safe as a succession of ministers have stepped down, with more expected to go.  On top of that, the man who has become the PM's nemesis in the north, Andy Burnham, is apparently down in London. Shopping? Plotting?  So it looks like Keir Starmer might just hit the current avera...

Keir Starmer survives the day -  but the pressure on his leadership is growing. Today, he attempted to shore up his position with a speech focused on his vision for Labour, saying his government must go beyond “incremental change” and be the party of a “stronger and fairer” Britain. But despite this, at least 55 Labour MPs have called on Starmer to set out a timetable for a leadership election to...

Labour is reeling after bruising local election results - losing ground to the Greens on the left and Reform UK on the right - and questions are now swirling around Keir Starmer’s leadership. Is this just a difficult moment for Labour, or the start of something much bigger? In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, former Keir Starm...

As Gulf leaders look to Beijing for guarantees Washington no longer seems able to give, China is suddenly at the centre of diplomacy around the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed and Iran’s foreign minister both arrived in Beijing within days of each other, seeking a way out of a blockade that has choked shipping routes, pushed tankers around the Cape of Good Hope, and rattled global m...

It’s the dirty secret at the heart of England’s waterways. The water companies publicly insist they are cleaning up their act, but privately they have been allowed to avoid prosecution for years through a little-known mechanism which lets a company admit fault and pay money to a good cause instead of facing criminal charges.  The Environment Agency says the payments are a “brilliant tool”, faster...

After a spate of attacks and foiled plots against British Jews since the the events of October 7th and the Iran war, including the stabbing of two men in Golders Green yesterday, many Jewish people say they do not feel safe in the UK any more.  So, why have we seen this horrifying rise in attacks? And what can be done about it?  On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy spoke to a rang...

As the UAE decides to leave the powerful OPEC oil cartel, Pakistan has opened itself as a land corridor that could help Iran get around the Strait of Hormuz blockade - so where do these developments leave Donald Trump’s long term plans for the Iran war and the shape of the Middle East?  In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators Matt Frei and Mark Urban delve into the latest developments in Washin...

King Charles heads to Washington at a moment of extraordinary tension. The visit comes just days after an assassination attempt on President Donald Trump - and against the backdrop of a deepening war in Iran, strained UK-US relations, and growing questions about America’s global role. In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy asks whether Britain’s most powerful tool, soft power, can h...

Donald Trump’s ceasefire with Iran appears to be holding - or is it? Iran has reportedly seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz as America attacks tankers and boats linked to Tehran - and then there doesn’t appear to be any hint of any imminent peace talks  In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and defence analyst Mark Urban discuss whether the Iran war has reached a s...

Peter Mandelson's appointment as ambassador by Sir Keir Starmer to the US was a rush-job, carried out under an 'atmosphere of pressure' from 10 Downing Street and a 'dismissive attitude' to security vetting.  That's the claim of Sir Olly Robbins, the sacked head of the foreign office as he was grilled by parliament's foreign affairs committee.  So, is it now clear what...

In a world facing overlapping crises - from Sudan, to Lebanon to the wider issues in the Middle East - the demand for humanitarian aid has never been greater. But as needs grow, the global response is struggling to keep up. In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Tom Fletcher, the United Nations’ Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordina...

Peter Mandelson, the problem that won’t go away. Keir Starmer is once again fighting to save his political career, after saying he was not told Mandelson had failed security vetting ahead of his appointment as US ambassador. So what really happened? Is this a failure of leadership or does it point to a deeper rot inside Westminster? And either way, can Starmer survive it?  On this episode of The F...

The ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding - for now. But beneath the surface, the signals tell a more uncertain story. In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei is joined by defence analyst Mark Urban and International Editor Lindsey Hilsum to examine the key signs shaping what happens next. From US military build-up in the region to Iran’s strategic use of the Strait of Hormuz,...

Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has come into force, but ships are reportedly still getting through, including a Chinese linked tanker. So, what is actually going on right now? How long could this blockade last and what happens if American forces try to seize a Chinese linked vessel?  On this episode of the Fourcast, Alex Thomson is joined by retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery...

Hungary has woken up to a political earthquake. After more than a decade in power, Viktor Orbán has been defeated, with Péter Magyar securing a historic landslide victory in an election seen as a major test for democracy in Europe. It’s a slap in the face for Donald Trump - after JD Vance called on Hungarians to support their incumbent leader. But did his attempt to raise support for Orban do the...

What is really going on in Lebanon? Less than 24 hours after Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, Israel launched a massive wave of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah across the country. Iran says Israel is violating the terms of the ceasefire - so could the peace talks set to be held tomorrow in Islamabad collapse before they’ve even started? And is this exactly what Israel wants?  On this e...

It’s uncertain whether the ceasefire Donald Trump brokered with Iran will hold after Israel launched a massive barrage of airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon leading Tehran to reclose the Strait of Hormuz.  US vice president JD Vance, who is leading the US delegation to Islamabad in Pakistan, has acknowledged that the ceasefire is “fragile”.  So is there any chance it could lead to a last peac...

Wireless Festival has been cancelled, following the government’s decision to block Kanye West’s permission to travel to the UK.   The American rapper, who’s now known as Ye, was due to headline the festival in Finsbury Park in the summer.  He has a long history of antisemitic comments and actions, including writing a song glorifying Adolf Hitler. Mr West has blamed this on a brain injury and misse...

NASA’s Artemis ll mission has blasted off to the moon - with the familiar rhetoric of exploration and human achievement. It’s the first crewed voyage out of low earth orbit in more than half a century - but behind the celebration - another story is taking shape. The modern ‘space race’ is a high-stakes contest for military, economic and technological dominance here on earth. A contest where whoeve...

Is President Trump on the cusp of pulling out of the Iran war or about to double down with boots on the ground?  He’s lashed out again at his Nato allies threatening to abandon the alliance, raising questions not only about the future of the war, but the future of Western security itself. On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei was joined by General Sir Patrick Sanders, who has had a 40 year ca...

Donald Trump has told the UK to “go and get your own oil” from the Strait of Hormuz as Iran continues to block the crucial energy chokepoint and as reports circulate that the UK is to receive its last tanker of jet fuel from the Middle East this week.  So what are the real risks to the UK economy, energy security, and global position as this conflict rumbles on? On this episode of The Fourcast, Ma...

Welcome to Fourcast Indicators on the Iran War with Matt Frei and defence and intelligence analyst Mark Urban. Fourcast Indicators looks at the signals that analysts watch most closely - the tell-tale signs that suggest imminent and significant change may be coming. This week we take a deep dive into the intelligence, military logistics, and the geopolitical fallout of the bombardment of Iran. We...