The Cerf Report

The Iran war isn’t just another conflict—it’s the death knell for nuclear assurances. Ukraine gave up its arsenal for broken promises (Budapest Memorandum). Iran complied with the JCPOA until the U.S. tore it up. Diplomacy yielded a breakthrough on Feb 27, 2026—then strikes hit Feb 28. Now France expands its nukes for the first time in decades, THAAD defenses are stripped from South Korea, and all...

The United States is at war with Iran — and history shows the cost of war is never what presidents promise. From Lincoln’s Civil War tax to the trillions borrowed for Iraq and Afghanistan, this episode examines how America shifted from paying for wars through taxation to financing them through debt — creating what Harvard scholar Linda Bilmes calls the “Ghost Budget.” Instead of raising taxes, Was...

The administration calls the strikes on Iranian leadership defensive necessity. But months of joint planning, expanded operational scope, and the absence of public evidence of an imminent Iranian attack suggest something far larger. In Episode 6, we examine the coordination timeline, the legal framing, stockpile implications, and why China and Russia are watching closely. Get full access to The Ce...

On the day the U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, the same old justification: ‘no alternatives left.’ But were the economic tools ever truly exhausted? From Cuba’s full energy blockade to Iran’s half-enforced sanctions — and why Kharg Island made a naval cutoff easier than anyone admits. Learn what $8 trillion, 4.5 million dead have to show us? Listen now. Get full access to The Cerf Re...

The tariffs were supposed to make America stronger — instead, the bill may be landing closer to home than anyone expected. The Cerf Report delivers a sharp retrospective on the first year of the Trump administration’s economic and trade agenda, examining where policy promises have collided with economic reality. This episode explores mounting evidence that U.S. consumers — not foreign competitors...

SCOTUS just nuked $200 billion in Trump tariffs—then Justice Kavanaugh handed him the playbook to bring them back. Constitutional win? Maybe. Practical victory? Not even close. The Court told Congress to stop hiding behind vague statutes while leaving importers with zero guidance on refunds. This isn't about tariffs. It's about institutional cowardice dressed up as separation of powers. Get full a...

This article from The Cerf Report examines the unprecedented decision by the Trump Organization to seek commercial trademarks for a sitting president’s name regarding airport branding and associated merchandise. Author David Cerf highlights that while previous presidents received such honors posthumously or after their terms, this proactive legal filing allows a private entity to potentially monet...

AI just wrote a novel, solved a protein folding problem that stumped scientists for decades, and convinced a researcher it was sentient. So here's the question keeping philosophers and programmers up at night: Are we accidentally creating new life forms? And if we are—what happens next ? Get full access to The Cerf Report at thecerfreport.substack.com/subscribe