The Bitcoin Layer

In this episode, Nik breaks down why US Treasury interest expense has become the most important story in finance, how lower rates are now a mathematical necessity for the United States, and why bond volatility remains the primary driver of Bitcoin’s price. He explains the pressure inside the repo market, the role of Japanese yields in recent volatility, the dollar’s evolving relationship with Chin...

In this episode, Demian and Johan unpack Bitcoin’s recent trend break, the shift into bear territory on several on chain metrics, and why the short term holder cost basis and true market mean are now critical levels. They cover the liquidation cascade that started in October, the divergence in put call positioning across exchanges, the sharp drop in open interest, and the surprising strength of th...

In this episode, Nik breaks down whether Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings report can be the spark that turns momentum positive for Bitcoin as it tests the crucial $87,000 to $90,000 support. He walks through the money markets monitor, the TGA rollover, and how shifts in reserves, repo usage, and liquidity flows may have driven the recent drawdown across stocks and Bitcoin. Nik analyzes the Fed corrid...

In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s sharp fall through $100,000 and explains how a surge in volatility across stocks, bonds, and the dollar has triggered a broad liquidity drain. He explores the Luke Oil divestiture pressure, Treasury sanctions, and why forced asset sales are pulling capital out of risk markets. Nik walks through the TBL Liquidity Index, the new sell signal triggered in lat...

In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000, why key trend lines matter, and how TBL Liquidity flipped negative ahead of the move. He covers the failed $108,000 level, the critical support zones near $96.000 and $87,000, the rise in bond volatility, and tightness in the repo market as SOFR hits the ceiling. Nik also explains how the government reopening and TGA spend down may af...

In this episode, Nik and Demian break down the connection between credit creation, inflation, and productivity, exploring why the world’s debt keeps growing faster than real wealth. Nik explains how money enters the system, when it becomes inflationary, and how productivity can offset rising prices. They discuss McKinsey’s global balance sheet framework, the difference between paper wealth and rea...

In this episode, Nik explains why Bitcoin rallied on the news that the U.S. government may soon reopen. He breaks down how Treasury spending, reserves, and deposits move through the financial system, eventually fueling Bitcoin demand. Using a simple four-balance-sheet setup, Nik teaches how TBL Liquidity connects government spending, bank balance sheets, and Bitcoin’s price performance. 📚 Bitcoin...

In this episode, Nik breaks down the latest global macro data and Bitcoin’s reaction to shifting liquidity conditions around the $100,000 level. He covers repo market tightness, U.S. credit card debt trends, Treasury issuance plans, and debt-to-GDP stability. Nik also compares Bitcoin’s performance to gold, explores what MVRV and realized price reveal about market health, and explains how TBL Liqu...

In this episode, Nik and Demian unpack how the Fed’s fight to manage repo market tightness is reshaping liquidity and Bitcoin’s price behavior. They break down the balance between inflation, employment, and the Fed’s “unofficial” financial stability mandate, exploring how fiscal dominance and credit creation now drive global money flows more than monetary policy itself. Nik explains why Bitcoin ac...

In this episode, Nik breaks down a new wave of funding stress across the global liquidity system. He explains how the Treasury’s growing General Account is pulling cash from reserves, why repo spreads are flashing early warning signals, and how the dollar’s rebound is weighing on Bitcoin’s price below $108,000. With markets tightening and liquidity pressure mounting, Nik reveals what these signals...

In this episode, Nik Bhatia breaks down the latest global macro developments including new stress in the repo market, the Fed’s official plan to end QT on November 30, and what these moves mean for liquidity, risk assets, and Bitcoin. Nik explains how the SOFR-to-IORB spread, declining reserves, and Treasury bill issuance point toward tightening conditions that will soon force renewed balance shee...

In this episode, Nik & Demian Schatt break down the Fed’s latest 25-basis-point rate cut, the announcement to end quantitative tightening, and what it reveals about the growing fiscal dominance shaping global markets. They unpack Joseph Wang’s concept of “Balance Sheet Dominance,” the mounting stress in repo markets, and why the Treasury’s massive bill issuance is now steering the Fed’s hand. The...

In this episode, Nik sits down with Kane McGukin to explore how faith, morality, and history shape the global liquidity battle Michael Howell calls The Capital War. Kane explains how reading the Bible helped him understand cycles of credit, power, and moral decay that echo through today’s financial system. The discussion connects biblical wisdom to modern macro, from the U.S.–China rivalry to the...

In this episode, Nik is joined by Matt Dines, CIO of Build Asset Management, for an expansive look at America’s evolving grand strategy. They break down the Fed’s next move in the repo market, the role of gold in global reflation, and how Bitcoin fits into the new era of credit, conflict, and liquidity. Nik and Matt explore the CapEx boom, private credit expansion, and why the U.S. banking system’...

In this episode, Nik breaks down the latest developments in the repo market, the Fed’s growing concern over reserve scarcity, and how these forces connect to America’s reindustrialization strategy. He explains how the shift from LIBOR to SOFR reflects a deeper geopolitical pivot, explores the U.S.–China economic dynamic, and outlines how new capital investment, dollar weakness, and expanding liqui...

In this episode, Nik breaks down what’s happening inside the repo market and why gold’s explosive move toward $4,300 is sending shockwaves through global markets. He explains how rising repo spreads signal emerging reserve scarcity, why the Fed’s standing repo facility is being used again, and what it all means for liquidity, volatility, and Bitcoin’s next move. Nik also shares why the gold price...

In this episode, Nik sits down with Pascal Hügli to explore the philosophical and structural tensions between Bitcoin and today’s fiat credit system. They discuss how stablecoins, central banking, and government spending are reshaping global money creation, and what Bitcoin’s emergence means for fairness, justice, and sound finance. Pascal shares insights from his new book on Bitcoin, explaining h...

In this episode, Nik breaks down how new U.S. tariffs on China triggered a spike in volatility across global markets and sent Bitcoin lower after a strong start to October. He explains how the administration’s re-industrialization policies tie into the Fed’s rate path, the Treasury market, and housing policy. Nik covers the latest moves in oil, yields, and the yield curve, showing how the Fed’s mo...

In this episode, Nik is joined by Robert Warren, author of The Bitcoin Miners Almanac and Head of Research and Education at Bitcoin Park. They discuss the evolution of Bitcoin mining from industrial operations to the new wave of home miners integrating mining into heating, water systems, and solar panels. Robert explains how open source R&D is reshaping hardware, why decentralizing ASIC design mat...

In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s strong start to October and what the latest pump means in the context of global macro. He explains how falling policy rates, Treasury yields, and dollar weakness are shaping liquidity conditions and risk markets. Nik highlights why correlations between Bitcoin and stocks matter, what average hourly earnings signal about inflation risk, and how the Fed’s s...

In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL research associate Johan Bergman to analyze Bitcoin’s latest price action and on-chain signals. They break down the bullish engulfing pattern that may mark a trend reversal, explain why high-volume nodes at $105K and $117K act as support and resistance, and discuss the behavior of longs and shorts as positions reset. Johan highlights healthy signals in the der...

In this episode, Nik sits down with Stacie, Christoph and Matthew from the Saving Satoshi team to explore their interactive Bitcoin education project. Saving Satoshi is a story-driven RPG that teaches the fundamentals of Bitcoin’s protocol from mining and hashing to signatures, transactions and Lightning. The conversation covers how the game helps newcomers and developers understand Bitcoin at its...

In this episode, Nik delivers a full global macro update with Bitcoin at a critical crossroads. He explains why funding rates are rolling off, volatility is at record structural lows, and how support levels could determine the next major move for Bitcoin. The update also explores the Bitcoin–gold ratio and why it fits into a long-term power law path, with Bitcoin continuing to outperform tradition...

In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL research associate Johan Bergman for a deep dive into Bitcoin’s latest price action and on-chain signals. Johan explains why the short-term holder cost basis has defined Bitcoin’s trading range for the past three years, and how the $104,000 level aligns with the 200-day moving average and key volume nodes. The discussion covers RSI momentum, Bollinger Band com...

In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL researcher Demian Schatt to break down the Fed’s latest rate cut and why it’s just catching up to what markets have already priced in. He explains the meaning of the Fed’s “neutral rate,” why central bank policy lags economic conditions, and how the SOFR curve and MOVE index signal shifting liquidity dynamics. Nik and Demian explore the market’s expectations f...