Prediction Market Movers

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Shay Patel to break down how Delphi Markets is building the data infrastructure layer for prediction markets. While most of the industry focuses on exchanges, this conversation dives into what happens behind the scenes — how fragmented APIs, messy data, and cross-exchange inefficiencies are creating opportunities for trade...

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher speaks with Stephen Grugett, founder of MNX and co-founder of Manifold Markets, about the evolution from play-money forecasting platforms to real-money AI-focused derivatives markets. MNX is building infrastructure for trading AI-native markets — including company valuation contracts, benchmark performance markets, and perpetual futures...

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with full-time mention market trader Tyrael, who has found much success in mention market trading — including a very profitable night during the State of the Union address. Tyrael breaks down exactly how he approaches volatile mention markets tied to figures like Donald Trump, JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Zohran Mamdani — and wh...

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Sporttrade CEO Alex Kane explains why the company has officially applied for federal approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to become both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO). Instead of operating under 38 different state sports betting laws, Sporttrade wants to move to a single federal framew...

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlach is joined by Gaeten Dugas, a top-100 Kalshi trader, for a deep dive into how experienced traders approach culture markets, political prediction markets, and insider trading risk. Gaeten explains why his trading starts with genuine interest, from politics and government shutdowns to music, movies, and pop culture markets like Spotify charts...

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher is joined by political commentator and writer Richard Hanania for an in-depth conversation on prediction markets, Republican Party realignment, and the road to the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election. Richard shares his personal history with prediction markets, from trading on PredictIt to being a named plaintiff in PredictIt’s...

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher is joined by Gigi Alcaraz, Founder of Mira, to explore how social-first trading platforms could reshape the future of prediction markets. Gigi breaks down Mira’s vision, why social markets and community-driven trading are becoming essential, and the biggest challenges facing prediction markets today. She also shares her personal jou...

On this week’s edition of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Henry Lau, Founder of Skywalk, for an in-depth discussion on the rapidly evolving prediction market industry. Chris and Henry break down Skywalk’s mission, their strategy for scaling the platform, and how builders can thrive amid shifting regulations and increasing competition. The conversation then shifts to P...

The two dive into the recent Kalshi case developments, how states could define swaps and the CFTC’s involvement in the prediction market landscape. Plus, the two also explore responsible trading, the explosion of crypto and prediction markets, and project what the court's will decide in Kalshi cases.   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, e...

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with entrepreneur and prediction-market expert Ben Freeman to break down the future of forecasting, market structure, liquidity, and how AI is transforming trading platforms. Chris and Ben discuss how he entered the prediction market space, the biggest problems with current market infrastructure, what founders misunderstan...

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with ProphetX Co-Founder Jake Benzaquen for a deep dive into the future of prediction markets. Jake shares his journey through major career pivots, how he entered the prediction market ecosystem, and what it has taken to navigate CFTC compliance while building an innovative trading platform. The conversation expands into m...

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Evie, founder of XO Live — known online as @0xgingergirl — to talk about how her app is reshaping community engagement and prediction markets. Evie shares how she pivoted from building a dating app to creating a thriving prediction market platform, the difference between men and women in trading communities, and why s...

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Damon Thayer, the Political Director of Prediction News, to break down the results from this week’s off-year elections in New York, New Jersey and Virginia. Chris and Damon analyze what the outcomes mean for 2025 and 2026, why Zohran Mamdani’s New York could reshape Democratic politics, and how the primaries are becoming e...

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Jeremiah Johnson, Co-Founder of the New Center of Liberalism. Jeremiah shares how he got involved in prediction markets, his concerns about their role in politics, and how prediction data could reshape political discourse.   Chris and Jeremiah dive into the New York Mayoral race, explore what could happen if Zohran Ma...

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with @PredMTrader, a leading content creator in the prediction market space. The two dive into PMT’s journey into prediction markets, the thrill of live trading, and how to find an edge in competitive prediction markets. Chris and PMT also explore the New York Mayoral race, discuss tips for young traders, and break down th...

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Joel Simkins, CEO and founder of XST Capital Group, for an in-depth conversation about the future of prediction markets and what could be one of the biggest shakeups in the space — the potential sale of Novig, one of the fastest-growing prediction market platforms. Chris and Joel break down: 💡 The business and regula...

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Damon Thayer, Director of Politics at Prediction News and former Kentucky Senator, to explore the connection between sports betting, politics, and prediction markets. Thayer takes listeners inside Kentucky’s journey to legalizing sportsbooks, discussing the behind-the-scenes process, economic impact, and what the stat...

On this edition of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with online prediction market entertainer and Manifest 2025’s “Best Debtor”, Tumbles (@32Tumbles). Tumbles opens up about his wild journey on the Manifold trading platform, the types of markets he trades, and how things took a surprising turn leading to his infamous Manifest award. Chris and Tumbles dive deep into life as a pre...

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher welcomes Fifty-One Alpha founder Aggie (@BlondiePredicts), often called the queen of prediction markets. Aggie opens up about her background in tennis, her transition into finance, and how she developed her passion for prediction markets. 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Aggies past life as a tennis player 3:15 - Transitioning into the business worl...

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Noah Sternig, former head at Kalshiand long-time prediction market enthusiast. Noah shares his insider journey into Kalshi, how he pushed the limits of what prediction markets can be, and his perspective on defining insider trading in the industry. The conversation also dives into the future of prediction markets, reg...

Welcome to Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher is joined by Sporttrade founder Alex Kane, an expert in sports wagering and the regulatory environment with legal betting. The two discuss Kane's background, why he started Sporttrade, his letter to the CFTC, concerns with the current landscape and more! 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal e...

Join host Chris Gerlacher as he kicks off Prediction Market Movers, the podcast covering the latest in prediction market news, trading strategies, and legal updates. Each week, Chris talks with top traders, industry insiders, and everything around prediction markets. 👉 Subscribe now to stay updated on everything happening in the prediction market industry.