Medley Advisors

The impact of the US government's about-turn on Ukraine and the North Atlantic alliance will be felt most keenly in Europe. In this podcast, Pepijn Bergsen, Medley Advisors' macro policy analyst, and James Waddell, the Head of European Gas and Global LNG at Energy Aspects, discuss what this strategic upheaval will mean for natural gas prices and fiscal spending. "Europe remains pret...

Radical US Republicans are looking 5,000 miles south for inspiration as they take their own "chainsaw" to government. Sixteen months since taking office as Argentina's president, Javier Milei has met his promises to drive down inflation and generate a primary surplus while sustaining public approval. For an assessment of the exportability and sustainability of the Milei model, Pepij...

Markets have been pricing in a second Donald Trump presidency since October but are still unsure over how literally to take his trade and fiscal promises and their spillover into Federal Reserve policymaking.  His first days in office have been even noisier than they were in 2017 as he signed more than 100 executive orders and pardoned 1,500 people convicted for crimes related to the occupation of...

Medley Advisors'  policy analysts make their predictions for the year ahead. In order, the speakers and subjects are:  Michael Redmond on the US. Brian Jackson on China. Kenichi Nagura on Japan Tim Jones on the Eurozone. Pepijn Bergsen on Switzerland. Phil Tyson on the UK. Debalina Hazra on India. Mario Lima on Brazil. Fernando Posadas on Mexico and Colombia. Ignacio Labaqui on Argentina, Ecu...

Donald Trump's return to the US presidency will accelerate the EU's slow-motion fiscal, security, and competitiveness crises. Trump tariffs and the union's response are “going to hurt Europe either way,” says Pepijn Bergsen, a European policy analyst at Medley Advisors. Not only will there be a hit to demand for European (especially German) exports to the US, he says, but the “Chine...

Since Donald Trump regained the US presidency on 5 November, bond, stock, and currency markets have all repriced yet their direction is unclear.  To assess what this repricing says about the revised outlook for global growth, inflation, and fiscal and monetary policy, Medley Advisors brought together three in-house market analysts: Nick Stadtmiller, Dan Schwartz, and Phil Tyson.  "The Trump p...

In this final podcast in Medley Advisors’ three-part series about the US election, Madelynn Einhorn talks to Nathan Gonzalez about polls, models, and forward indicators to monitor on 5-6 November.   Nathan Gonzalez is the editor and publisher of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan analysis of federal and state campaigns. A 14-year ABC News Election Night Decision Desk veteran, he is a reg...

With the most consequential US election in decades looming, Medley Advisors are releasing three discussions between Madelynn Einhorn and renowned electoral experts.  In this podcast, Madelynn asks the big question going into 5 November: can we trust the polls? After all, in 2020, Joe Biden led Donald Trump by 8 points but won by only 4.5 and by just 43,000 votes across three states. What went wron...

With the most consequential US election in decades looming, Medley Advisors are releasing three discussions between Madelynn Einhorn and three renowned electoral-data experts to consider the outcome.  In this podcast, Madelynn talks to Lakshya Jain - the co-founder of the Split Ticket election-analysis site. A machine-learning engineer by training, Lakshya Jain (and his Split Ticket colleagues) bu...

A four-month decline in commodity prices until mid-September, a chunky opening interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and a substantial Chinese monetary ease have raised concerns that a marked global slowdown is underway. Are there early signs of this in the energy and tech markets? To answer this question, Earl Han, the Head of Medley Advisors, brought together Sung Soo Han and and Kitt Haines...

Mario Draghi has acquired such mythical status that it was little surprise when his report on “the future of European competitiveness” captured so much media and market attention. Yet, although the report put together by the former European Central Bank president and Italian prime minister is comprehensive and ambitious, it is only a blueprint. For any of it to be implemented requires the kind of...

On 10 September, incumbent US Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump will meet for their first (and maybe only) pre-election debate. In this Medley Advisors podcast, Tim Jones asks Samer Mosis, Madelynn Einhorn, and Michael Redmond for their pre-debate takes on the election and its policy implications. Before joining Energy Aspects as Head of Fundamentals in April, Samer Mo...

As global policymakers head for the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, all eyes are on Federal Reserve officials and any signal that their easing cycle will begin in September.  In this podcast, Medley Advisors take advantage of the diverted spotlight to look at two authorities that beat the Fed to the turn: the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Andrew Besuyen asks Ti...

Since January, the Brazilian real has lost 15% of its value against the dollar as left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) publicly resists public-spending cuts proposed by his own cabinet.  Now, in the wake of a 15-billion-reais spending freeze unveiled by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, we bring together Mario Lima, Medley Advisors’ Brazil analyst; Fernando Posadas, head of Latin...

The Bank of Japan is unique among developed-market monetary authorities. Just as the European, Canadian, and Swiss central banks start their easing cycles – and the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England prepare to join in – the BOJ is tightening policy across the yield curve. Yet, the market is sceptical – driving the yen down 20% against the dollar since late-2022. Understandably so, says Medley...

By dissolving the national assembly and daring his compatriots to elect a right-wing populist government, French President Emmanuel Macron has revived questions over fiscal stability in Europe that had been buried for more than a decade. With the first round of the legislative election coming on Sunday, Medley Advisors' European analysts Tim Jones and Pepijn Bergsen discuss the market risks s...

On 12 June, soon after the Federal Open Market Committee released its statement, updated projections, and "dot plot", and Chair Jay Powell ended his press conference, Medley's Fed-watcher Michael Redmond discussed what it all meant with Nick Stadtmiller.  

On Sunday 2 June, Mexicans will vote for a new president, a federal lower house and senate, eight state governors, deputies for 31 state congresses, and 1,580 municipal officials. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is term-limited but his chosen successor Claudia Sheinbaum holds a substantial lead over rival Xóchitl Gálvez.  To preview the results and their aftermath, Fernando Posadas, Medley A...

For an update on Chinese macro trends and their impact on energy demand, Earl Han (Head of Medley Advisors) brought together Brian Jackson (Medley's China analyst) and Jianan Sun (Energy Aspect's China analyst).  While industrial output is stabilising, its composition is changing. Something "already clear in the first few months' data for the year is that we also have this comp...

It's been five months since Javier Milei was sworn in as Argentina's president - a head of state taking a chainsaw to his state with no Congressional majority and in a country with a long tradition of street resistance.  In response to the first stage of his shock therapy, the economy is expected to shrink by more than 3% this year while inflation is touching 290%. Yet the president is s...