Forward Guidance

Today, Silicon Valley Bank, an institution with over $200 Billion worth of assets, failed. Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why. Whalen attributes the collapse in book value of SVB Financial (the entity that owns Silicon Valley Bank) to the Fed’s rapid hikes in interest rates, which severely depressed the market value of the bank’s holdings....

Today Jack Farley speaks with David Hay, chief investment officer of Evergreen Gavekal and publisher of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack. Hay entered the investment business the same year as Paul Volcker became the Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he shares what the investment world looked like then, beaten down by inflation and obsessed on commodities such as gold and oil.  Hay describes how...

Alfonso (“Alf”) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, “higher for longer,” the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of lon...

Follow On The Margin: Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3yc4079 Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM -- This epsidoe is taken from the On The Margin weekly roundup. As Mark takes some well deserved time off, Mike Ippolito host of the On The Margin podcast combines forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance. As Berkshire Hathaway released the...

Martin Pelletier, Senior Portfolio Manage at TriVest Wealth joins Forward Guidance to discuss the "structural shift" that has occurred in markets due to rising inflation throughout 2021 & 2022, and how to navigate this new turning point. With Martin's background running a long only energy hedge fund, we go on to discuss the energy trade and if the underinvestment in the industry has created the pe...

Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the labor market, the U.S. economy, and stocks and bonds. Green tells Jack Farley that the apparent strength of the labor market is not fully capturing the layoffs in tech, and that last year’s spike in interest rates are already causing damage in commercial real estat...

Right now, U.S. officials in Washington D.C. are preparing legislation that will cut off foreign investment into China.  That’s according to Jack’s two guests today, Harald Malmgren & Nick Glinsman. According to them, the Biden administration is preparing an executive order that will fundamentally alter America’s financial relationship with China. Harald Malmgren is an economist, ambassador, and f...

How should the world decarbonize its economy and maximize human flourishing? Steve Keen, post-Keynesian economist and Green New Deal proponent, explores this question with Doomberg, energy advocate and green chicken, in a no holds barred discourse on the future of energy and climate.  -- Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergT Follow Steve Keen on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfS...

The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a “soft landing” scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesn’t enter a recession. The odds of a “soft landing” appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last?  Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro...

What is a true financial crisis, how does it differ from the mere popping of a speculative bubble or a vanilla recession, and what are the current risks of a financial crisis right now? Steven Kelly, an expert on financial crises and Senior Research Associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) to discuss these questions. Wang, a former senior...

Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the world’s leading expert on global liquidity, a key concept in finance that relates to the relative ease of financing in markets around the world. After previously calling in 2022 that a collapse in liquidity would usher in a bad year for risk assets, Howell returns to Forward Guidance with happier tidings. Howell now argues that glob...

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Neal Berger Founder, President and Chief Investment Officer of Eagle’s View Capital Management joins the show to discuss how he managed to correctly identify, and profit, from the 2022 bear market. After posting triple digit returns of 163% in 2022 (as reported by Bloomberg), Neal identified the sell off in stocks and bonds that would occur as central banks...

Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater. Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's l...

Roger Hirst, managing editor at Real Vision Creative Studios and macro editor at Lykeion Research, joins Forward Guidance to share his macro outlook for 2023. Hirst tackles the ongoing fight in the bond market over the degree to which central banks - namely, The Bank of England, The Federal Reserve, and The European Central Bank - can keep interest rates at restrictive levels before being forced t...

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Mike Ippolito of On The Margin for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February. Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial condi...

With the February Fed meeting rapidly approaching, Jack Farley welcomes Colby Smith, U.S. economics editor for the Financial Times (FT), to share her expectations for the February meeting, and her insights about the transmission of the Fed’s policy to the market and the public. She argues that the disconnect between the rate cuts being priced into the interest rate futures market and the Federal R...

Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, explains why he thinks the bull market in stocks can last for much longer. He notes that many companies are still growing their earnings substantially despite inflation and economic uncertainty, and argues that the outperformance of cyclical stocks over defensive stocks is an indicator that the bull market in stocks has legs. Filmed on January 26, 2023....

Milton Berg is a quiet legend of technical analysis whose work is regularly used by the world’s most accomplished investors. He joins Jack Farley to share his reading of specific patterns in the market that to him are strong bullish indicators. Berg argues that the recession already occurred in 2022 and that the best time to buy stocks is coming out a recession. Berg shares with Farley in-depth an...

The last time Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception, appeared on Forward Guidance in August 2022, he gave viewers a well-timed warning that the commodity supercycle was “on hold.” Now, he returns to argues that the world is well on its way to a global recession that will provide a hostile environment for risk assets. Yang shares his “equity bottom checklist” with Jack Farley to argue that equit...

Darius Dale of 42 Macro once again joins Jack to share his macro view for 2023. Dale argues that, while inflation and growth are falling, inflation is falling so much faster than growth is falling, and economic resilience is rearing its head in many areas. As a result, it may appear that the so-called “soft landing” could be achieved this year. At least that’s what many asset markets that Dale tra...

The last time Jack Farley had Tokyo-based, global macro markets trader and Bank of Japan aficionado Weston Nakamura on Forward Guidance - the BOJ had shocked the world with a sudden unexpected major change in their Yield Curve Control policy. At the January Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the BOJ once again shocked markets and caused mayhem in bond and FX markets - but this time, by doing noth...

Andy Constan, veteran macro investor and founder of Damped Spring Macro Research, joins Jack to share his macro framework for 2023. Looking at rallying risk assets and an interest rate futures market that is pricing in over 200 basis points worth of cuts by the Fed, Constan argues that the market is assigning too high a probability to two “blue pill” scenarios - a soft landing or a Fed pivot. Cons...

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 As big banks start to report their earnings, Jack turns to banking specialist Alex Gray for insight. Gray taps her prior experience both as a commercial banking underwriter and as a senior analyst of large cap banking stocks to glean insights from the fourth quarter reports of JPMorgan...

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- With U.S. monthly inflation coming in negative, what’s in store for the future economy and interest rate path? Bob Elliott, chief investment officer at Unlimited Funds, and Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, discuss. -- Follow Jeff Sn...

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments and  geopolitics editor at Lykeion, joins Jack to share his geopolitical outlook for 2023. Jacob tells Jack why he thinks that Russia’s war again Ukraine will sadly continue for some time, and he e...