Cheap Talk

Russia bails on the New START arms control treaty; Putin and prospect theory; the short and long term effects of the treaty suspension; why we have arms control treaties in the first place; overlapping international agreements; taking stock of Russia’s invasion one year in; European security transformed; the relevance of nuclear risk and nuclear deterrence today; and Marcus embraces conspiracy the...

We’re on Apple Podcasts and Spotify; an excellent book is on sale; the Last of Us is not a zombie show; China threatens a balloon response; we are seeing more flying objects; risk reduction and diplomacy between the United States and China; President Biden visits Kyiv; and Marcus explains the role of aliens in political science theory What should we talk about in future episodes? Let us know at ht...

Cheap Talk’s very special balloon-themed episode: China’s spy balloon; the effect on diplomacy when spying becomes public; the intelligence value of spy balloons; why the US failed to deploy its giant balloon net; the risk of balloon-related escalation; the trajectory of the US-China relationship; and Marcus explains his criteria for riding in flying objects Recommended Valentine's Day gifts for l...

Cheap Talk’s triumphant return from its winter hiatus: Evaluating the lasting impact of the COVID pandemic (if any) on international affairs; preparedness for the next pandemic; COVID and domestic politics; the supply chain and decoupling from China; domestic protests in China; the nonissue of vaccine diplomacy; and Marcus misattributes an often misinterpreted quote Leave feedback or ask a questio...

Cheap Talk ends the semester with a mailbag episode: State dinners; celebrities and national interest; AI and international relations; sports diplomacy and the World Cup; President Biden’s willingness to meet with Vladimir Putin; and Marcus admits he doesn’t like soccer Thanks to all those who contributed questions. Leave a message for a future podcast at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk Lookin...

Garage door updates; the information and cyber war in Ukraine; academics in the press; the ethical implications of AI art; and Marcus discusses his turkey options Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk Further Reading On Thanksgiving menus: “2022: Kenji on T-Day.” 2022. Special Sauce Podcast. https://www.thespecialsaucepodcast.com/podc...

Cheap Talk returns from a COVID-induced hiatus: online prediction markets; already-obsolete election takes; US support for Ukraine with a new Congress; domestic politics and international affairs; remembering Former Defense Secretary Ash Carter; Russia’s retreat from Kherson; South Korea recovers a North Korean missile; and Marcus was anticipating a red wave Subscribe to Cheap Talk in the podcast...

The sixtieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis; lessons from the crisis; the dangers of reasoning from analogy; why Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine; how NATO would respond if they did; gambling for resurrection; the US role in facilitating peace; and Marcus agrees that countries shouldn’t use nuclear weapons Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode...

Allegations of cheating in chess; how to go about cheating in chess (but you shouldn’t do it); a questionable analogy to face-to-face diplomacy; how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affects international chess; looking into Putin’s soul; and Marcus shares his chess journey Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

Escalation management; sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline; signals of Russian resolve; what the end of the war in Ukraine looks like; backing Putin into a corner; US strategic ambiguity toward Russia and China; Iran protests; and Marcus confesses he is not a military strategy guy Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

The long-awaited season premiere of Cheap Talk: The origins of Russia's invasion of Ukraine; did Putin make a mistake; would Ukrainian nuclear weapons have prevented a war; who is deterring whom; and Marcus comes up with a final exam question Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at http://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

A Cheap Talk emergency podcast: Russia invades Ukraine and Marcus swears off predictions for a while

The Cheap Talk season 2 finale: Authenticating the sender of international signals; the problem of communicating through intermediaries; technology and leader communication; IR predictions for the year ahead; and Marcus explains how fax machines work

Artificial intelligence; how algorithms can aid policy or intelligence analysis; building trust in the output of machine learning models; creating models without access to secret data; autonomous weapon systems; diplomacy in the metaverse; and Marcus offers tips for cooking a Thanksgiving turkey Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk Further r...

The COP26 international meeting on climate change; inviting civil society and oil companies into the room; how open should the conference be; the mechanisms by which an international conference can affect climate change; prospects for the success of international efforts; the role of nuclear energy in mitigating climate change; a listener asks about the chances of a US-Iran agreement on a nuclear...

Great power conflict; the US role in abetting China’s rise; realism as both prescription and description; prospects for the future US-China relationship; the drivers of China’s nuclear expansion; a listener asks about US diplomatic engagement in the China-Taiwan dispute; and Marcus (again) thinks the answer is more diplomacy. Further reading: John J. Mearsheimer. 2021. “The Inevitable Rivalry: Ame...

The US commitment to defend Taiwan; signaling resolve while maintaining strategic ambiguity; things are dangerous out there; the effect of US public opinion on US foreign policy; a hint for those writing policy memos for class; the external validity of survey experiments in political science; COVID vaccine diplomacy and international influence; and Marcus claims he’s more of a craps player than a...

The militarization of US foreign policy; getting diplomats and intelligence officers out of the embassy; the domestic politics of foreign policy funding; showing results from diplomacy; soft power approaches; and Marcus thinks the answer is more diplomacy Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk.

The gap between academia and policy; where policy beliefs come from; how we would know if there were a gap; policymakers are busy people; less methodological sophistication is not the answer; science communication is important; and Marcus mentions offhandedly that he frequently gets invited to the State Department Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/...

Pure theorizing versus applied research; positivist and non-positivist approaches in international relations; international relations is what the field says it is; the relevance of the international relations paradigms; a defense of methodological pluralism; and Marcus reads a quote from Kenneth Waltz several times Further reading: David A. Lake. 2011. “Why ‘isms’ Are Evil: Theory, Epistemology, a...

Judging the US-Russia summit; the risks of failed summit diplomacy; AUKUS; countering China versus nonproliferation policy; nuclear submarines; the role of precedent and norms in international relations; and Marcus makes a note in his Google calendar

Cheap Talk makes its triumphant return for season 2: The US withdrawal from Afghanistan; reputations for resolve in international relations; foreign policy as a partisan issue; the legacy of 9/11; and Marcus didn’t know what to do, so he went to class