The Dividend Cafe

Today’s podcast features our entire Investment Committee in a battle royale (of mostly agreement), talking trade war, markets yields, negative rates, “this time it’s different,” stock sectors, and alternative investments. Subscribe to the Dividend Café Podcast Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen unpacks everything from the market’s response to "the trade war" and the "the rate war" to where things stand in the ongoing efforts with China, to what the Fed is doing, to the way people are ventilating about the yield curve. Market Volatility The Trade War The Fed and Interest Rates Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Fears Links menti...

Topics discussed: For many years now we have been using our Dividend Café property to bring you frequent market commentary and portfolio perspective. Last year, we introduced the Fiscal Feminist identity, spear-headed by our very own Kimberlee Davis to address significant financial issues relevant in the lives of women. Today, we bring you a blended Dividend Café/Fiscal Feminist (the Dividend Femi...

Topics discussed: We know the following things about the last 2-3 weeks in the market: (A) The China/trade war has blown up (B) The Yield curve has inverted (C) Negative yields persist all over the globe (D) Recession talk is everywhere So markets are obviously volatile, but it isn’t clear how these above things relate to one another, and people want to know what is going on. What I seek to do in...

Topics discussed: Is volatility back? You tell me - here was the market action this week: Down 400 points Monday, Up 400 points Tuesday. Down 800 points Wednesday. And as I submit this for the week, Thursday (late morning) we are up a little over 100 points (but saw the pre-market futures up and down hundreds of points at a time). There is always one reason for "up & down" volatility (is there...

Topics discussed: Volatility expectations in the weeks/months ahead Trade war Currency Brexit Hong Kong The Fed Asset allocation when the 10-year is 1.65% and equities face uncertainty and volatility Within equities, what looks good? Energy sector Is big tech/new tech dead? Low beta or high beta? Outlook for dividend growth Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The last peace treaty in this trade war was supposed to be simple enough: The Chinese agreed to buy more agriculture from the United States and the U.S. agreed to lay off Huawei. Not even that was able to last. The intense stock market volatility of the last week is not the most problematic aspect of the trade war from an economic standpoint. We will focus our analysis on: (1) Th...

Topics discussed: The market suffered its worst week of the year last week and the downside accelerated today in response to China’s currency depreciation and the general market realization that this trade war ending is nowhere in sight. We sat down as an Investment Committee this morning and recorded our best thoughts and ideas around all of this to inform and edify your understanding as it perta...

Topics discussed: This week's trip to the Dividend Cafe will look at the overall health of the U.S. economy, at the state of credit markets, at all the context around the Fed's present thinking, and some very important reminders about dividend growth during this crucial time. Investors should be prepared for two things when central bankers add stimulus to asset prices that are already operating as...

Markets appear to be up a tad on the week, with little volatility to show for it (as of press time, anyway). Earnings season is off to a really strong start, but I want to wait one more week to begin "report carding" earnings season (partially to not jinx it, and partially because it is a tad premature). I took advantage of this week's slow news week (sorry, Mueller) to talk about the broad econom...

As we enter the middle part of the summer, we also enter the beginning of Q2 earnings season, and this all adds up to fun times. The equity markets puttered around a bit this week and between the "wait and see" on a China trade deal and the "wait and see" on Fed accommodation, earnings ought to be the major story for the next couple of weeks. In the meantime, I really tried to use this week's Divi...

Topics discussed: Will the Fed Cut? Is a recession coming? A look at results of the tax reform bill Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: A Pregnant Pause in the Trade Tirade Dividend Cafe; How it All Began Emerging Markets equals Earnings Growth Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Markets in the first six months of 2019 Fear of Market Highs Where we are in the trade war with China Dividend Cafe Podcast will be merged with Advice & Insights Podcast going forward. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: What stocks and bonds are saying to markets The Fed and Credit Markets Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Fed put vs. Trump call - week #2 What Mexico Tariffs? Business Loses Confidence Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Mr. Tariff Man moves south Are tariffs inflationary? The Fed's signal to markets. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Effects of trade war on business investment Impact is not limited to US and China Brexit, The Fed, and more Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Financial Advice vs Human Nature China Trade War Sovereign Debt Fed and Interest Rates Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The Great Trade Update - Three Options left on the table The HIT to the GDP Growth - it's real and it could be big China's "Nuclear" Option - what are the chances that things go Boom Links mentioned in this episode: TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Current state of trade negotians with China Market Reactions to renewed threats of trade war. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Earnings Watch - more come but things look good Capex Showing Signs of Life GDP - 'nuff said Reading between the Fed lines Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Sentiment vs. Fundamentals When you pray that past is not prologue Real Estate vs. Stocks in Recession Getting QE right so we can get the next five years right Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Things really are good, but they really are sensitive to conditions that could make them not good The term “insurance cut” A slowdown in small business job creation Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Earnings over next 4 Weeks Q1 Anecdote Brexit and other Beltway Bulls and Bears Links mentioned in this episode: TheBahnsenGroup.com