The Dividend Cafe

What I want to do, starting in this week’s Dividend Cafe, but really in the weeks and months to come, is to examine the truly significant macroeconomic forces that are relevant to investors, and to explore investment solutions that match the moment. I do not believe advisors and investors can consider solutions intelligently if they have not considered what they are trying to solve intelligently....

The market closed up almost 400 points today after an intra-day session that was surely one of the weirdest I have seen in a couple weeks. Futures were down 100-200 all morning pre-market, and went down further after the initial jobless claims number came in at 2.98 million (the number had been expected to be closer to 2.7 million). The market went down as much as 450 points before rallying back a...

Futures were down last night, then up this morning, then went flat just as the market opened this morning. By the time the market open was catching steam downward pressure was on stocks, and that downward pressure accelerated a few hours after the open, and then stayed down but level the rest of the day. Stocks actually closed 180 points off their low of the day, but still down 500 points on the d...

In the height of market violence throughout March and April it was routine that the overnight futures would do one thing, the opening the next morning something totally different, and the action throughout the day something different still. Sometimes even then there was no clarity as to how things would end up as 400+ point moves down or up even in the final hour of trading were extremely common (...

The S&P was flat today, the Nasdaq was up, and the Dow was down 100 points, so let’s call it a flat day overall. We will cover our normal categories and take a few detours as well as we launch another market week in the midst of this COVID pandemic … As for health data, the 1.5% case growth over the weekend is what we have been waiting for – the smallest case growth in the U.S. since all of th...

This week’s Dividend Cafe will do all it generally sets out to do.  We will look at the overall economy, and I even close with something I don’t often do: A summary of our short term, medium term, and long term outlooks.  There is quite a deep dive into the jobs data, the economic picture, the state of the U.S. energy industry, some post-COVID economic realities, and much, much more.  But there al...

Happy “Flash Crash” anniversary, to those who remember that fateful day (ten years ago today). I remember it like it was yesterday, ending a meeting with clients early (who were sitting in my office facing me at the time, as I faced the television over their shoulders that was informing me of the collapsing market). I began trading in client accounts heavily after the prematurely-ended meeting, an...

The market was up 300+ points most of the day today, and just as the sell-off faded yesterday, the rally faded today, with the market closing up 133 points (though the S&P was up 34 bps more than the Dow). Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen answers questions from investors on markets and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I learned a lot in the month of April as well, and I want to share it with you today.  I am either excited to tell you or sorry to tell you that this week's Dividend Cafe is the longest one I have ever written, but also the most important one I have ever written.  The length of it is just simply because of the sheer ambition of all I am trying to cover this week.  There are some investment opportu...

After the big move up the last two days, we closed the extraordinary month of April with a down-300 point day. Weekly jobless claims came in at 3.8 million, bringing the aggregate new unemployment claims since the COVID crisis began to ~30 million. Oil prices for the June contract were up ~$4 today (+25%), and are up ~$8 since Monday. April ends up being the biggest month up in the stock market si...

The Bahnsen Group Investment Committee is back together for the first time in weeks to discuss all matters of the market, Covid, and investing. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The futures were pointing down 80-100 points without a lot of activity last night, yet by the early morning were pointing to a +300 point move higher. The market opened up ~400, bounced around throughout the day, and closed today down a tad. But the big tech companies were down 2-4% all day. But on the other hand, some key REIT’s, materials companies, energy names, and industrials were all up toda...

The futures opened yesterday down a pinch and reflected a down 80 or so opening for a couple hours.  By the time I went to bed U.S. futures were pointing up 100, and more interestingly, the Nikkei was up over 400 points (see why below).  I woke up to the futures pointing up 200 points at 3:30am, and the June delivery contract on WTI oil down 17% to just over $14/barrel.  (The disconnect between sh...

Last week’s national video call brought to you podcast listeners in audio form - COVID, two market phases, and what to do from here. Watch the call and follow along with the slides here - https://youtu.be/pt-wO73Y8to Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It has been a fascinating week in the markets, with oil tanking, but the energy sector way up; with the markets up and down every day; with some bond sectors rallying, and others selling off.  Some degree of non-correlation between asset classes seems to be sneaking back into play, and non-correlation is the hallmark of normalcy.  Now, we have a long, long way to go ...  but there were interesting...

The week of April 6 was the biggest “up” week in markets on a percentage basis since 1974. Last week (with up and down volatility) was another solid up week, whereas some tempering of the prior week’s rally had been expected. Coming into this week, I certainly figured some tempering of the prior two weeks rally would not be surprising, and we dropped 500-600 points Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday’s...

The market rallied quite a bit today, coming off of the two ~600 point down days that started the week. Oil prices were up 22% (from their very low level, mind you) and they are at least now only showing the June contract vs. the delivery/storage fiasco in the May contract that was taking place Monday and Tuesday. Futures were pointing to a 250-point increase when I woke up this morning, and throu...

We cover the market, the latest in health data, plenty on housing prices, the PPP Part Two stimulus program, and oil prices - plus more Links mentioned in this episode: CovidAndMarkets.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The week went essentially much as I expected in the markets – the health data continues to point towards marked improvement, but not quite yet a full re-opening; markets did not continue the violent rally of last week, but had some modest volatility both up and down; and the economic data from March was awful, with all eyes and ears focused on where we go from here. On the week, as of press time,...

The Dividend Cafe Podcast will now add a Daily Covid and Markets reporting with the latest on the many aspects of the capital markets affected by COVID-19. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market week is cut short by the Good Friday holiday this week, but investors liked what they received out of the four days markets were open. Monday represented one of the biggest up days in market history, and Wednesday and Thursday added to the rally, with the Dow now a stunning 5,500 points off its March 23 low level (which was itself an intra-day number). No, we do not know what equities w...

As I am taping Friday morning a short while into the final market session of the week, the market is nearly flat on the week (modestly down at this point). That came with a big move up Monday, a modest move down Tuesday, a huge move down Wednesday, a decent move up Thursday, and so far, early on Friday, a “flattish” day (though off a bit – again, moving as I type). Note the theme? A “flat” week in...

As of broadcast time, the market has moved significantly higher on the week, bouncing in a meaningful way Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week (after further sell-off Monday). As I record Friday morning, the market shows down (but it is early). We all know that we don’t know what the rest of the day (or weekend) will bring. This very special Dividend Cafe (long, but I think we all have extra...

The utter insanity of today's financial markets continued in Sunday evening futures action, Monday morning futures action, and throughout the day Monday. The largest Federal Reserve announcement yet came, and plenty needs to be said about the so-called "fiscal stimulus bazooka." Today's special Dividend Cafe provides as much explanation of these crazy times as we can muster, and offers yet more pr...