The Dividend Cafe

COVID Health Information • Cases were down 8.3% from the same day last week, and these two consecutive days of week-over-week decline represent the first two days of such in about eight weeks. • Testing is up, case growth is dropping, so positivity rate is dropping. All data points have more room to go, though. • The vaccine candidate from Pfizer/BioNTech have begun stage three trials and are targ...

This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm from July 27, 2020. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Dividend Cafe reminds of the uncertainty that exists around the world today. Europe may seem to have rectified some parts of their uncertainty, but they invited new uncertainties in doing so. The U.S./China tensions are not solving themselves, and you may have read somewhere that COVID case growth hasn't solved itself yet either (highly contagious viruses are interesting, that way). It is...

Data this week has been quite a mixed bag with some of the encouraging data being more encouraging than I expected, and some of the negative data being more negative than expected. “Sustained outright declines in new cases are not that far off” [Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics], but right now we are just watching the new case curve peak, and disparate results in different states makes it...

The market was up 165 points today, mostly on a flat/choppy day that simply escalated in the last two hours of trading. The general mood was that reports the Republicans are open to extending the federal unemployment benefit at a $400/month level through December drove the last day market move higher, but I am skeptical. It is certainly possible, but it strikes me as utterly incomprehensible that...

The market closed up +150 points today, though the Nasdaq sold off. Energy led the way today, while Health Care & Technology were the losers. As for health data: Case growth Monday was 4.2% lower than Monday of last week. The national percentage of positive tests was down to 7.9%, the lowest in nearly two weeks. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market was flat today in the Dow, but both the Nasdaq and the S&P were up (the Nasdaq meaningfully so after last week’s travails). Today’s missive really, truly does go all around the horn – lots and lots of up to date health info, and some useful info with the stimulus bill, housing, the Fed, and more. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this week's Dividend Cafe we focus on the trade-off of volatility and expected returns A market summary of the week that just was Where the next stimulus bill may be heading Why QE is not acting like debt monetization (yet) ... and so much more Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market missed out on its first five consecutive days of price increase by dropping 135 points today … Initial jobless claims came in at 1.3 million for the week, a tad higher than 1.25 million expected. Continuing claims dropped to 17.3 million, a bigger drop than expected and now down 30% from the 25 million high of March. Retail sales were up +7.5% in June vs. +5% expected. Links mentioned i...

The market closed up 230 points today, zig-zagging around most of the day after opening up +350 points. The driver was optimism around vaccine talk (and it is not just one source of optimism, as you will see in today’s Health Data). Earnings season is too young to be much of a driver but I selfishly like what I have seen so far. Let’s jump around the bend as always … Links mentioned in this episod...

Futures were up close to a hundred points last night, vacillating between the flat line and +100, at 3:30am ET this morning they were flat, and by 4:00am they were +100. But really it was all worthless until bank earnings started coming in, and when the first mega-bank reported their results, futures had a mixed response (some names up, some names down) The market opened up a bit and throughout th...

This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This week’s Dividend Cafe is a long and juicy one – lots of topics, lots of practical subjects (see list below), and plenty for the wonky types and those who loathe such verbose diversions. But what is most important to me in this week’s Dividend Cafe is that it addresses the issue I believe is most necessary for grown-ups to deal with in this day age: In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will: • Recap...

I’ll save you the play by play of what happened with futures last night and this morning, but it was pretty boring. And the markets moved higher a bit pre-market when the jobs numbers came out (see below). But what moved markets lower during trading today seems to be (and I say “seems” because it really doesn’t seem to be much of a market moving event to me, but it was perfectly time to the releas...

Futures were modestly positive all of last evening and into my morning wake-up. They turned negative a few hours before the market opened and bounced around pre-market. The market opened up a bit, then dropped a few hundred points, then bounced around throughout the day, and rallied into the close to end up +177 points on the day. Not a huge day one way or the other, but some intra-day volatility...

I woke up this morning to an overnight Nikkei that had dropped a tad, European markets down a tad, and U.S. futures down 100 points or so. Futures eased lower throughout the morning (which I might add, now total about six hours before the market opens, versus three hours on west coast – and I love it!) … The market opened down 200 and stayed in that range most of the day before petering out in the...

Market futures never did point down last evening, and I woke up very early eastern time to futures pointing up 450 points. After a cup of coffee I realized that China’s market was up a stunning 5.7% today alone. Consider this for those mystified by the actions of the U.S. stock market: the Shanghai Composite Index is now the highest it has been since early 2018. We live in crazy times. Anyways, th...

In this week's Dividend Cafe we will look at: The real lesson of 2020 so far, evidenced in Q1 being the 9th worst quarter in history, and Q2 being the 9th best quarter in history, and what behavioral lessons some investors may want to pick up from this. We do an extensive dive into what lies ahead for 2020, and our views on economic recovery, stimulus, a vaccine, volatility, and so much more. What...

The market closed the shortened holiday week up over 800 points for the week, with the market up almost 100 points today. Futures were really flat last night, and at 4:30am Eastern this morning were up over 200 points. The jobs report came at 8:30am ET and futures added on another 200 points. Markets were up 400 points at one point and moved up and down throughout the day before selling off substa...

This is the audio replay of National Call Market Outlook from TBG CIO - David L. Bahnsen. With Host Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates. Discussed is the impact of increased COVID cases in certain states on markets, and will attempt to evaluate the latest economic and investment developments, and what we are anticipating as we officially enter the second half of the year. Links mentioned i...

• Some clarification on COVID and the current media coverage • How the result of “financialization” is to ignore capital investment, and how starving the economy of capital spending deprives it of future productivity • The stress of the stress tests! • The lost decade of gold is a powerful antidote to the strange argument that central bank abuses are bullish for gold. If the last decade wasn’t the...

Futures last night really hugged around the flat line non-stop from 3pm pacific until 9pm or so when I stopped checking.  At 3am this morning they were still flat, and throughout the morning going into the market open they moved a tad lower.  The Dow got down as much as 200 points, gyrated around most of the day up and down, and then rallied the final hour of trading to close up 300 points. Links...

Market futures were pretty much flat all of last evening, and I awoke at 3:15am to a down 250 level. By the open, futures were pointing to down ~700. It opened there, got as down as -850, and closed down 700 points on the day. COVID case growth and coverage of it is a fine explanation for market volatility today, but again the performance in structured credit today – mortgages, loans, etc. – paint...

Well this was one of the crazier 24 hours in quite some time, more so for what happened last night than today. Futures opened up about 100 points last night, and slowly inched higher for the first couple hours into the evening. Around 6:30pm pacific/9:30pm eastern, my devices starting blowing up that futures had collapsed 400 points (so a net swing of over 500 points) after “White House advisor, P...

Futures were pointing down as much as ~300 points Sunday night (netted for fair value), though that number improved as the night went along. By 3:15am this morning they were pointing to a flat market open. The market traded down ~200 points early and closed up over 150 points, in a 400-point range today … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com