The Dividend Cafe

Markets took a decent lead at the open but couldn’t hold it, and there is some more to say about the bond market in today’s daily podcast! TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This is a long DC Today with a lot more market talk than you are used to, largely because the “legacy” version is only one day a week and I am purposely trying to pack a lot in. The last week has been brutal for markets and I have a lot to say today to quantify it, and a lot coming Friday in Dividend Cafe to qualify it. I was the market guest on Maria’s Wall Street over the weekend, discussing all...

The stock, bond, and housing markets are in pretty real distress right now as higher rates re-price risk assets, and general instability in monetary policy becomes the natural consequence of years of excess and irresponsibility. And yet, everyone is already talking about it, making it a far less compelling candidate for this week’s Dividend Cafe. I have covered plenty on monetary policy this year...

The market really doesn’t want to close strong these days, going from +100 to -100 in the last ten minutes of trading today. MARKET ACTION Dow: -107 points (-0.35%) S&P: -0.84% Nasdaq: -1.37% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.71% (+20 basis points!) Top-performing sector: Health Care (+0.51%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-2.16%); now down -27% on the year, just 1% away from the do...

I’d love to say “Fed comments caused the market to drop today” but it would be untrue. Within seconds of the Fed release the market went from +200 to -200, but then the market went back to +250, and that was all AFTER the Fed announcement, the release, and the Powell press conference. THEN, after all that, the market unraveled into the final thirty minutes of trading. Dow: -522 points (-1.70%) S&a...

A volatile day to the downside in markets today as traders await comments from the Fed tomorrow and as bond yields bring down risk asset valuation. Dow: -313 points (-1.01%) S&P: -1.13% Nasdaq: -0.95% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.56% (+7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Technology (-0.51%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.57%) WTI Crude Oil: $84.16/barrel (-1.38%) Key Economic Point...

It is not accidental that I write so much about the Energy sector. First and most applicable, we are big energy investors at The Bahnsen Group, carrying an allocation in our Core Dividend portfolio that is triple the weight that the S&P 500 has. What is happening in energy markets has profound relevance for the economy at large, for all people in their everyday lives, and across all national b...

Special thanks to all who have reached out to say how much they like and appreciate the new format. Between the addition of a podcast, a video, a transcription of the podcast, and the continuation of a daily written synopsis, along with the legacy version on Monday and the real meat of Dividend Cafe on Friday, I think the vast majority of readers have been extremely positive in their feedback. Iro...

The day after the market sell-off you had a small move higher in each equity index but I unpack it all and then some here … MARKET ACTION Dow: +30 points (+0.10%) S&P: +0.34% Nasdaq: +0.74% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.41% (- 1 basis point) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.85%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-1.39%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.68/barrel (+1.57%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Eve...

The Consumer Price Index (Headline CPI) came in +8.3% over where it was a year ago. Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) came in at +6.3% versus a year ago. Food prices and the lagging effect of shelter cost put upward pressure on prices while energy prices and used cars put downward pressure on prices. TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It’s pretty anti-climactic that I announce the new DC Today plans on Thursday and then we get to Monday and … it’s the same DC Today you are used to … But that is the idea – no difference in the written program for DC Today on Monday, but with the addition of this daily podcast (and video) … TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I first want to thank everyone for the extremely positive feedback last week on the somewhat unique Dividend Cafe juxtaposing USC football and markets. It was fun to write and, at least for some of you, appears to have been fun to read. But for those who prefer the serious stuff, we are back to normal this week, and I think it is time I cover a topic that comes up a lot anecdotally, but I don’t th...

Why in the world would I waste the precious soundwaves of Dividend Cafe to recap day-by-day market action when this hallowed ground is supposed to be reserved for what actually matters in markets (and life)?  Because we are entering football season, of course, and how this all connects is about to be readily apparent to you. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Long-time readers of Dividend Cafe know that the real intent of this weekly commentary is to delve into the macroeconomic – the big picture – the high-level stuff that impacts investor decisions and behavior. Today in honor of the obsession over Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (being delivered shortly after I hit “submit” on this commentary), I want to talk not an iota about the Fed, moneta...

We have a fun Dividend Cafe for you this week, with by far the most important things on my mind in the summer of 2022 getting all of the attention. This is a short, easy read, and easily digestible for anyone looking to make heads or tails of the current market conditions. I will spare you further introduction and jump right into the Dividend Cafe … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.co...

I kind of like this week's Dividend Cafe.  We are going to do a very quick look into how the Fed fuels Japanification, but more specifically, how low-interest rates hurt growth.  It is one thing (and a more severe one at that) that monetary policymakers generally view artificially low rates as a really good thing to fuel economic growth, but at this stage in my life and career, there is little I c...

One of the hardest things about being an economic commentator in this day and age is that economic commentary requires nuance, and this day and age requires narratives.  There is to be a single narrative about X, and any variation around, above, beneath, or of the exact X narrative is heretical or at least unappreciated. It is a tough way for society to function, but it is an especially tough way...

I really did mean to write this entire piece last week but simply ran out of time and space. I will give you a recap today of last week’s takeaways but then make sure this week’s wraps a bow around our updated point of view on inflation. This is not merely a philosophical exercise. There is an abundance of empirical support provided for my position, and I think you will find a lot of the informati...

It has been a year and a half since I first took up the inflation/deflation debate as a matter of contemporary debate (a part 1 and a part 2 ). As much as I wished then (and now) that the great economic fight we would have for the next thirty years was inflation, I believed then (and now) that the great economic fight we will have for the next thirty years is better referred to as deflation (a ter...

I send this week’s Dividend Cafe at the end of a 24-hour trip to Las Vegas, where I spoke at a conference yesterday. 2,600 people have come to the 110-degree city of sin for the purpose of hearing various economic and political musings, and one such forum of musings was a panel with myself, Steve Forbes, George Gilder, and Mark Skousen discussing, of all things, my book! It was a surreal experienc...

The fundamental tension in the economy today, and less directly so, in markets themselves, is really simple: Is a recession coming that slows down price inflation? That question is simple to identify as the economic tension point of the moment, but it is not simple to answer. One reason for this complexity is that some of the premises brought to the question are not to be taken for granted. And th...

Happy Independence Day weekend to you and yours. Or for those without much historical interest, Happy Fourth of July. Today’s Dividend Cafe is not going to dive into the state of the market, though I can promise you that Tuesday’s DC Today will have plenty to say about the first half of 2022 and our expectations for the second half. But for today, I want to look at this Independence Day holiday th...

I’ll be very honest with you – I prefer single-topic Dividend Café issues. I wrote a multi-topic weekly commentary for many years before moving to a “mostly” single-topic orientation, and I have never loved writing Dividend Café more. I feel that the weekly information quality and value is higher with a singular focus each week, and I think the “variety” style works better in our daily market bull...

Volatility continues and certain market sectors are reeling, along with investors. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Once again we find ourselves in the midst of a tumultuous week in the markets, and yet with bigger fish to fry in the Dividend Cafe? What could be bigger than a 1,400 point drop in the market on the week, and a 3,000 point drop in the last two weeks (note: I am hitting “send” on this before the market opens on Friday, and pre-market action Friday does appear to be to the upside right now, but you...