The Dividend Cafe

Futures opened last night down -80 points and stayed down near -100 points into the evening. This morning futures pointed to a down -200 point open pre-market. The market opened down -150 points, worsened a bit, and then steadily improved throughout the day. The Dow closed down -36 points (-0.11%) with the S&P 500 down -0.61% and the Nasdaq down -1%. We are exactly halfway through earnings sea...

I have a view of where the United States is in its economic cycle that I have had for quite some time, and that has substantially informed many of the macro assumptions I bring to portfolio management. I have shared this overarching worldview many times over the years in Dividend Cafe and elsewhere, and I am constantly refining it, analyzing it, and even challenging it. It has the word “deflation”...

ASK DAVID “Could you give us some tips on what we can do to fight ESG?” ~ Mark S. It is the subject of much obsession at places like National Review’s Capital Matters, and I am engaged in many efforts to fight for the interests of shareholders when it comes to the activity of corporate managers taking their P’s and Q’s from the radical and incoherent agenda of various fads and virtue-signaling alp...

ASK DAVID “When you talk about a stock on television, but then later end up selling as your viewpoint changes, do you publish or broadcast your new view somewhere?” ~ Tom As for the more practical aspect of your question, no, we really couldn’t possibly be responsible for “running a portfolio on TV” if you know what I mean. Updating what we have added and subtracted and bought and sold and when an...

ASK DAVID “Would you mind giving me your Cribb note version of your expectations on the USD’s devaluation now that Saudi Arabia (and probably others) are willing to trade oil for other currencies than the US dollar? If you expect a significant currency related (not just inflation related) devaluation, do you have an idea of how we can offset that?” ~ D.M. The main thing to say is that: Saudi has n...

Futures opened last night down -50 and were down -85 into the evening. This morning markets pointed to a down -265 open pre-market. Futures would improve in the next three hours before the opening. The market opened down just -80 points and then went positive before then steadily declining throughout the day. The Dow closed down -261 points (0.77%), with the S&P 500 down -1.30% and the Nasdaq...

The month of January has launched 2023 in a very different direction than 2022 thus far. I do not mean because markets are up thus far whereas they were down in 2022 (though technically both of those things are true). But beyond the mere directional change in markets (which could reverse at the drop of a hat), the themes and factors influencing markets – in other words, the stuff that matters – ha...

Dow: +204.45 (+0.61%) S&P: +1.10% Nasdaq: +1.76% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.497% (+3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+3.32%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.28%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.04/barrel (+0.89%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Weekly jobless claims again reflected the strength of the labor markets with initial claims coming in at 186,000 versus a median forecast...

Dow: +10 points (+0.03%) S&P: -0.02% Nasdaq: -0.18% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.45% (-1.8 basis points) Top-performing sector: Financials (+0.74%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-1.36%) WTI Crude Oil: $80.49/barrel (+0.45%) ASK DAVID “This statement in Brian’s response to yesterday’s question caught my eye: “…because inflation is ultimately driven by demand.” I find this interesting becaus...

Futures opened last night about even give or take 20 points, and stayed that way until early morning when we began moving lower and then notably so pointing to a down -150 point open. We opened down about -170 points but were down north of -250 after the first 20 minutes of trading. Around 1145 EST we had slightly better than expected PMI data released and fully recovered the morning losses tradin...

Futures opened last night pretty close to flat (down -20 points) and stayed right there into the evening. This morning futures pointed to a dead flat open pre-market when I first woke up. The market opened flat but moved up from there and stayed up with a few zigs and zags along the way (see chart below) The Dow closed up +254 points (+0.76%), with the S&P 500 up +1.19% and the Nasdaq up +2% T...

FOR ACCESS to CHARTs described in this episode, click here - https://bahnsen.co/3DnVULR I wrote a piece for the Dividend Cafe in May last year about the subject of housing and having re-read it this morning, I wouldn’t change a word. But those more evergreen principles don’t take away the appetite many have for the current state of affairs. Economic conversation right now largely centers around re...

I, Trevor Cummings, am honored to be filling in for David Bahnsen today. I hope you will join me for the video and/or podcast, as I provide you with the daily happenings around markets. Please don’t miss out on the “Ask David” section below, as we’ve fielded this same or similar question quite a few times recently. Without further ado, off we go… Dow: -252.26(-0.76%) S&P: -0.76% Nasdaq: -0.96%...

Dow: -614 points (-1.81%) S&P: -1.56% Nasdaq: -1.24% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.37% (-16 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Services (-0.93%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-2.65%) WTI Crude Oil: $79.25/barrel (-1.16%) Key Economic Points of the Day: The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw outright (and rather significant) DEFLATION in December, with prices dropping on t...

Futures opened last night pretty flat (down a pinch) and dropped to down -50 points or into the evening as the Cowboys were having their way with Tom Brady. This morning futures pointed to a down -50 point open pre-market and that went a bit lower after results from Goldman Sachs. The market opened down close to -200 points and fell further in the next two hours before leveling around that low thr...

Last weekend I watched a new documentary series on Netflix called Madoff: The Monster of Wall Street. Some of you know I am a bit of a geek for all things Wall Street history, and I seriously doubt you would believe me if you knew how many documentaries, fictionalized movies and TV shows, not to mention real books, I have taken in over the years covering various elements of Wall Street history. Ma...

Dow: +269 points (+0.81%) S&P: +1.28% Nasdaq: +1.76% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.54% (-7.6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+3.60%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (+0.06%) WTI Crude Oil: $77.71/barrel (+3.45%) ASK DAVID “The US government has stated that it will purchase crude oil to replenish the strategic reserve once the price hits $70. In effect, this seems to in...

Dow: +269 points (+0.81%) S&P: +1.28% Nasdaq: +1.76% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.54% (-7.6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+3.60%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (+0.06%) WTI Crude Oil: $77.71/barrel (+3.45%) ASK DAVID “The US government has stated that it will purchase crude oil to replenish the strategic reserve once the price hits $70. In effect, this seems to in...

A little early morning volatility but then a small rally on the day in markets. Read below, listen, watch – the choice is yours! MARKET ACTION Dow: +186 points (+0.56%) S&P: 0.70% Nasdaq: 1.01% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.62% (+10 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Svcs (+1.29%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.26%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.16%) WTI Crude Oil:...

Futures opened last night up +40 points and were up over +80 points by bedtime. This morning futures pointed to a +100-point open pre-market. The market opened up +150 points and got up over +300 points before falling just over -100 points. A 450-point delta between the high and low levels today … The Dow closed down -113 points (-0.34%) with the S&P 500 down -0.08%, and the Nasdaq up +0.63% a...

Today's Dividend Cafe Link - https://bahnsen.co/3Z98Le5 I’ve lost count of how many years now we’ve done this, but it is a lot, and it is one of my favorite projects every year. I thoroughly enjoy the research that goes into it, the writing that creates it, and the accountability that comes out of it. I will refrain from the temptation to start waxing and waning now and just say that I hope you fi...

A solid day for the energy sector and some key blue chip companies but downside across most market sectors. Dow: -340 points (-1.02%) S&P: -1.16% Nasdaq: -1.47% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.72% (+1 basis point) Top-performing sector: Energy (+1.99%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.89%) WTI Crude Oil: $73.80/barrel (+1.32%) Key Economic Point of the Day: The ADP jobs number for the priva...

The new wing of the TBG offices in Newport is now open. We are excited for you to come see it. I believe it is now 28 out of our 50 people that are based in Newport, soon to be 30 out of 52 (we are hiring two new Tax Services people this month). The new space gives us extra space we needed for our Solutions Department from last year’s growth, more space for additional future growth, new offices fo...

I began writing this from Dallas, Texas this morning, where yesterday USC suffered a heartbreaking loss in what was one of the most exciting Cotton Bowl games ever. I am back in Newport now, where tomorrow morning we reveal the new large office expansion to our team (same floor, same building). It has been a labor of love, I assure you. We have added new advisor offices (we have a new advisor star...

https://bahnsen.co/3uYu6c0 Virtually everything going on in markets right now (or so it would seem) has to do with what central banks are doing (or are projected to do). It certainly is not true in reality – the things happening today that will ultimately determine investment outcomes in years to come will have far less to do with the cost of capital and far more to do with human action – but in t...