The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40qjm3u I enjoyed a wonderful dinner with my long-time friend, John Mauldin, last week, and something we discussed is going to be the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe. John is one of the most well-known newsletter writers in our industry, and I have been reading him every single week – no exceptions – for 23 years. Around ten years ago, after a shared CNBC appeara...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3mP5Ad0 The talk is warming up for the debt ceiling debate to become a major market story for a time. As I was writing months ago, there is no leverage for the Republican House if they don’t first pass their own debt ceiling bill (essentially, a bill they actually pass with 218 or more votes that does raise the debt ceiling but gives House Republicans what they wa...

Today's Post - Day-to-day bond volatility continues to be quite elevated, and very few are really talking about it. I believe as QT inevitably moves to QE (or at least non-QT), you will see bond volatility come down. Equity volatility already has. 80% of days in January were up or down > 1%, 74% in February, 65% in March, and just 36% so far in April. Hmmmm … I have spoken a lot lately about th...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40eo9VP I would say, at this point, the market is definitely pricing in yet another rate hike at the next FOMC meeting two weeks from today (futures are up to 87% implied odds). Markets obviously haven’t cared much. Bond yields today didn’t move a lot. Sometimes you have to report what is and not what ought to be, and sometimes what is or what will be is different...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40b95Ih Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4018FUN This is a unique Dividend Cafe but one that I think will have something for everybody. It speaks to a mentality and a framework that has more than just economic ramifications. It was inspired by a conversation I had with my wife on Wednesday night about some other things, and as our conversations often do, led to another track that led to another track tha...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/43GLAdk The markets went into big-time rally mode today and, of course, had already rallied a lot from mid-March levels. The CPI number was quite disinflationary yesterday, as Trevor walked you through in the DC Today, and we saw the disinflationary report in CPI yesterday and now further disinflation in PPI today (producer prices). Headline PPI was down -0.5% on...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3muBoUs Today was a highly anticipated day, as we were set to get the latest look at inflation data. This data came in lower than expected, which appeased markets at first glance but lost its luster throughout the trading day. Some pointed to the FOMC minutes and the glooming use of the word recession that took the wind out of the market’s sails, yet this was not...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3moAxo7 Days like today tend to be pretty boring because stock and bond markets are limited in what they are likely to do a day ahead of a news announcement like tomorrow’s CPI reading. The fed funds futures have a 70% chance right now for a quarter-point rate hike next month, and we will see how markets respond to the CPI tomorrow. In the meantime, I tried to mak...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3GAu2FF I hope everyone had a wonderful Easter weekend and are feeling excited for the week ahead. Markets should be pretty weird this week, but now I just say that every week because I have such a high chance of being right when I use the word “weird.” Today didn’t do anything to embarrass me in this prediction (more below). Dividend Cafe last week was my earnest...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Ui1J4z Last weekend’s news was not a Lehman bankruptcy, a Silicon Valley depositor backstop, or a Credit Suisse acquisition.  It was not even driven by U.S. forces, let alone the usual cast of characters in the Fed, Treasury, or FDIC.  Rather, it was OPEC+ making an announcement of production cuts in oil.  It didn’t crash markets – in fact, it caused a big rally...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40EOqh5 First of all, congratulations to the Huskies of the great state of Connecticut (where some of TBG’s favorite clients reside) on their NCAA championship. I assure you it was the news story today that deserved the most press coverage. It was a pretty boring day in the market, and all the news wanted to talk about was the Trump court appearance and such. Bond...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ZFg4ZY So congratulations to the San Diego State Aztecs and the UConn Huskies, who will go head to head tonight for the NCAA college basketball championship. It has been a tournament to remember – thrilling upsets and last-second shots – and enough investment lessons to generate a whole Dividend Cafe! The written is here, the video is here, and the podcast here....

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40OgHkJ Any time I use some sort of sports analogy in the Dividend Cafe I get a lot of emails from people who connect to it and say they love it, and then I get emails saying, “come on, I don’t care about sports – please just stick to the market!” I am never offended or bothered – Abraham Lincoln had a line about pleasing people once – but I am also not swayed. If...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3G3Vdsa So the market went up again today, went negative in the middle of the day, then rallied back in the second half of the day (see chart below). The FDIC is looking to move the cost of the recent bank failures to the banks that didn’t fail (read: to their customers), Sen. Joe Manchin has decided he regrets his support of the “Inflation Reduction Act” atrocity...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JRB2yV I read an interesting line from an analyst I read daily in my morning research this morning … “if the bulls are to reclaim control of this market, beta likely needs to reassert itself; hasn’t happened yet.” Of course, this sort of begs the question – bulls of what? Well, if one means “the market index,” then they have essentially said, “if those bullish fo...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TNPuMZ There are two things I think I have amply covered over the last few weeks: (1) Equity market volatility; and (2) the Bond market rally. Both things are true – equities have been all over the map, up and down, even as they are mostly flat (or actually slightly up) since all this banking commotion began. And bonds are indeed up a great deal, with the 1-year...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3noFOMJ There is a lot today on Housing, which is a matter of practical significance to a lot of you, and there is a lot today on the banking mess and the Fed, which is also connected to Housing. So I think you’ll find today’s missive practical and interesting. After reports throughout the weekend that both First Citizens Bank and Valley National Bank were bidding...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JF6mRh We are in a moment of “volatile Sundays” in the financial services industry. This is when market actors, policymakers, movers, and shakers have big news to announce on a Sunday in an effort to “beat markets opening”, or as Ben Bernanke once joked that his memoir would be called, “before Asia opens.” I lived through it in spades in 2008 – Fannie and Freddie...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TGllyM That the market gave up -500 points in fifteen minutes at the end of the day yesterday but then rebounded +500 points this morning is, to me, validation of my theory regarding yesterday: that it was a closing speculative trade. Fundamentally, the facts on the table (where they are known) are not really subject to much debate. So an interesting thing happen...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TAGcni All that matters today is what the Fed did and said. And what they did was raise rates a quarter point. And what they said was that “financial conditions have tightened” (well, there you go). And he said that these tighter financial conditions and tougher lending criteria from banks will “factor into their policy decisions” (phew). As for a First Republic...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JvZllP I imagine it is quite likely that the bond market has seen its highs in bond yields for quite some time to come (across the whole yield curve). The 10-year sits at 3.5%, down from 4.21%, and I will be surprised if it gets back up to that level. Likewise, the short end sits at 4.5%, down from over 5%, and I don’t see it getting back there, either. If I am w...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LBs0Z8 For the second week in a row, I get to do hours upon hours of reading and writing over the weekend, only to have Sunday interventions make obsolete much of that reading and writing. Keep reading to understand more … There is no question that the major story in markets right now is sort of the only story, and that is the day-to-day perceptions of the bankin...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42ftwpL In this week’s Dividend Cafe, I again decided not to limit myself to one topic but to take the recent avalanche of questions we have received and go through them all, one by one, creating quite a “multi-topic” Dividend Cafe for you. I think you will find the questions intriguing, and I hope you will find the answers satisfying. From questions about student...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JHE8Wf Brian Szytel here with you today reviewing continued market volatility with today’s 700-point swing, albeit today to the upside, surrounding ongoing stress in the financial sector, along with a significant list of new economic data points. I have a full agenda in today’s video podcast link below with updates on employment, manufacturing, interest rates, an...