Conflicts of Interest

Fighting is escalating across northern Ethiopia. Is the seven-group anti-government alliance already falling apart? Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Jalale Getachew Birru to unpack the TPLF offensive, divisions within the rebel coalition, and what Eritrea's and Egypt's involvement means for the next phase of the conflict in Ethiopia. We break down why the...

In this emergency episode, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED Senior Analyst for East Africa Dr Jalale Getachew Birru to unpack the sudden surge in fighting in northern Ethiopia. What has changed? Who is fighting whom? And is Ethiopia heading back towards full-scale war? They break down the latest developments in Tigray, the new alliances forming against Abiy Ahmed’s governm...

Trump, Cartels, and Fuel Prices: Noise or News? There’s a lot happening in the world. But how much of it actually matters? This week, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills introduce Noise or News? — a new game sorting the headlines worth paying attention to from those making more noise than impact. They bounce around the world: from a new opposition coalition in Ethiopia and the rise of Germany’s AfD, t...

Who are the Houthis and what do they want? As the Houthis advance in Yemen and Saudi Arabia takes missile and drone hits, the forces meant to stop them are collapsing — with some units reportedly made up of nearly 80% ghost soldiers who exist on paper but not on the battlefield. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills go beyond the headlines to explain w...

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills go beyond the headlines to break down extreme violence worldwide.  From cartel massacres in Mexico to gang killings in Haiti's Kenshoff, Houthi attacks around Yemen and Saudi Arabia, renewed Russian strikes on Kyiv, Ukraine, to protest crackdowns in Iran — why does some violence dominate the news while far dea...

The US is using missiles and air-defence interceptors across multiple fronts — from the war with Iran and protecting bases in the Middle East to years of support for Ukraine. But can American weapons production keep up with demand? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , ACLED President and CEO Clionadh Raleigh joins Bron Mills to ask whether the US is really running short of missiles — and wha...

Donald Trump says the US has “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is threatening ships, US interests and countries that support Washington. The Houthis are putting pressure on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping. And cyber attacks are bringing the conflict much closer to home. ACLED President and CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills discuss who really controls one of the world’s most i...

Who can still rely on the United States — and which countries are building new alliances instead? From Donald Trump’s approach to Kim Jong Un and South Korea, to the growing partnership between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, the global alliance map is shifting. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, prof Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills connect the dots between some of the biggest geopolitic...

India’s ‘Cockroach Janta Party’ protest movement has claimed a major victory, forcing the resignation of the country’s education minister — the first cabinet minister to resign under public pressure in 12 years of Narendra Modi’s government. ACLED’s Pearl Pandya joins Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills to ask why this movement succeeded where others have failed, whether India’s young protesters...

Two years after Venezuela’s disputed 2024 election — and months after Nicolás Maduro was removed from power — who is really running the country? Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED’s Tiziano Breda to trace how the contested election helped pave the way for Maduro’s downfall and examine the uneasy system that has replaced him. Delcy Rodríguez remains in power, the opposition is stil...

What does Ukraine’s reported strike on an Iranian cargo ship tell us about the expanding war — and was it really a message to Donald Trump? Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack why Ukraine may be taking the fight beyond Russia, what Iran’s threat of retaliation means, and where the Houthis fit into the conflict. Plus, after an attack at a Pride event in Berlin, they look at Europe’s ch...

While political leaders frame left-wing extremism as the rising domestic terror threat, the actual data (who commits violence, against whom, and why) points in a more uncomfortable direction. This week on Conflicts of Interest, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills break down what ACLED's data reveals about political violence in the United States and beyond: Is the far left genuinely becoming a gre...

This week on Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Myanmar expert, Su Mon, to examine why Myanmar's civil war won't end anytime soon despite sweeping early resistance gains. They break down the fractured battlefield of hundreds of armed groups, the military stalemate between the junta and opposition forces, and how drones, improvised...

This week on Conflict of Interests , Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Sudan expert, Nohad Khaddaj, to examine why Sudan's war remains deadlocked despite mounting diplomatic pressure. They break down the siege of Al Obeid, the military stalemate between the SAF and RSF, and how drones, foreign backing, and regional rivalries are reshaping the battlefield. Th...

The Islamabad Memorandum was signed barely two weeks ago. Sanctions relief and $24 billion in unfrozen funds have already reached Tehran. So when an Iranian drone struck a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the US retaliated within hours — and both sides immediately agreed to "stand down for now." Is the MoU already dead — or is Tehran simply testing how far it can p...

The talks are “looking good”, according to Washington. Iran wants sanctions relief, Trump looks desperate to get out, and Israel is still not convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending — or is Tehran walking away with the money, the leverage, and most of the cards? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron unpack the latest US-Iran talks in Switzerland, why the reopening of the Strait of H...

The US says a deal is close. Iran wants sanctions relief. Israel isn't convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending, or are we just entering a new phase? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the latest ceasefire negotiations, why Pakistan has become a key diplomatic player, what reopening the Strait of Hormuz really means, and why peace agreements can be far more fragi...

The Horn of Africa is the most consequential and least understood region in the world right now and Western analysis is making it worse. In this episode, ACLED founder Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's regional experts to break down dynamics in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. Russia and China are watching. But it's the UAE and Saudi Arabia that are in the room , fund...

The peace talks continue between Iran and the U.S, but who actually wants a deal, and what does "winning" even mean for each side? Professor Clionadh Raleigh chats with Bron Mills about the real strategic interests at play: what the US needs, what Iran's leadership can actually accept, and what the regional picture looks like if talks collapse or succeed. Then: what is the point fro...

On this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills catch up on Day 88 of the Iran war — a moment defined more by paralysis than progress. They unpack Iran's internet blackout, finally ending after months of restrictions, what it reveals about Tehran's grip on internal dissent, and why the latest round of US-Iran peace talks remains trapped in a web of com...

The world is moving so quickly it is becoming harder to know where to look first. Iran remains on edge around the Strait of Hormuz. Ebola is spreading through one of the DRC’s most militarized regions. And attacks on places of worship are exposing the messy overlap between extremism, antisemitism, misogyny, and political violence. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , Professor Clionadh Ralei...

As headlines swing wildly between ceasefire talks, missile strikes, diplomatic breakthroughs and fresh retaliation, this episode of Conflicts of Interest explores the growing sense of global confusion surrounding modern conflict. ACLED CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh is joined by Bron Mills to unpack the “attention war” shaping how conflicts are understood online, where algorithms, viral misinformation...

Ukraine has produced millions of drones and lost thousands more — and that hard-won expertise is now in high demand.  In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Ukraine expert Witold Stupnicki unpack how Kyiv is exporting its drone warfare knowledge to Gulf states, why a $50 drone can outmanoeuvre a $3 million missile, and what that means for the futu...

As Sudan’s war enters its fourth year, the conflict is not fading — it is evolving, driven by shifting alliances, war economies, and regional opportunism that could reshape the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. While global attention is fixed elsewhere, the forces sustaining this war, from Gulf rivalries to cross-border militia networks, are evolving in ways that extend instability far beyond Sudan’s...

An assassination attempt on the US president. A surge of coordinated attacks in Mali. Rising violence in Chad. Continued fighting in Lebanon. As the Iran war reaches 60 days, what’s emerging isn’t a clear path forward, but a global landscape shaped by distraction, opportunism, and escalation. While attention remains fixed on Iran, violence elsewhere is accelerating — often with far less scrutiny....