Conflicts of Interest

This week on Conflict of Interests , Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Sudan expert, Nohad Khaddaj, to examine why Sudan's war remains deadlocked despite mounting diplomatic pressure. They break down the siege of Al Obeid, the military stalemate between the SAF and RSF, and how drones, foreign backing, and regional rivalries are reshaping the battlefield. Th...

The Islamabad Memorandum was signed barely two weeks ago. Sanctions relief and $24 billion in unfrozen funds have already reached Tehran. So when an Iranian drone struck a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the US retaliated within hours — and both sides immediately agreed to "stand down for now." Is the MoU already dead — or is Tehran simply testing how far it can p...

The talks are “looking good”, according to Washington. Iran wants sanctions relief, Trump looks desperate to get out, and Israel is still not convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending — or is Tehran walking away with the money, the leverage, and most of the cards? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron unpack the latest US-Iran talks in Switzerland, why the reopening of the Strait of H...

The US says a deal is close. Iran wants sanctions relief. Israel isn't convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending, or are we just entering a new phase? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the latest ceasefire negotiations, why Pakistan has become a key diplomatic player, what reopening the Strait of Hormuz really means, and why peace agreements can be far more fragi...

The Horn of Africa is the most consequential and least understood region in the world right now and Western analysis is making it worse. In this episode, ACLED founder Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's regional experts to break down dynamics in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. Russia and China are watching. But it's the UAE and Saudi Arabia that are in the room , fund...

The peace talks continue between Iran and the U.S, but who actually wants a deal, and what does "winning" even mean for each side? Professor Clionadh Raleigh chats with Bron Mills about the real strategic interests at play: what the US needs, what Iran's leadership can actually accept, and what the regional picture looks like if talks collapse or succeed. Then: what is the point fro...

On this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills catch up on Day 88 of the Iran war — a moment defined more by paralysis than progress. They unpack Iran's internet blackout, finally ending after months of restrictions, what it reveals about Tehran's grip on internal dissent, and why the latest round of US-Iran peace talks remains trapped in a web of com...

The world is moving so quickly it is becoming harder to know where to look first. Iran remains on edge around the Strait of Hormuz. Ebola is spreading through one of the DRC’s most militarized regions. And attacks on places of worship are exposing the messy overlap between extremism, antisemitism, misogyny, and political violence. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , Professor Clionadh Ralei...

As headlines swing wildly between ceasefire talks, missile strikes, diplomatic breakthroughs and fresh retaliation, this episode of Conflicts of Interest explores the growing sense of global confusion surrounding modern conflict. ACLED CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh is joined by Bron Mills to unpack the “attention war” shaping how conflicts are understood online, where algorithms, viral misinformation...

Ukraine has produced millions of drones and lost thousands more — and that hard-won expertise is now in high demand.  In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Ukraine expert Witold Stupnicki unpack how Kyiv is exporting its drone warfare knowledge to Gulf states, why a $50 drone can outmanoeuvre a $3 million missile, and what that means for the futu...

As Sudan’s war enters its fourth year, the conflict is not fading — it is evolving, driven by shifting alliances, war economies, and regional opportunism that could reshape the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. While global attention is fixed elsewhere, the forces sustaining this war, from Gulf rivalries to cross-border militia networks, are evolving in ways that extend instability far beyond Sudan’s...

An assassination attempt on the US president. A surge of coordinated attacks in Mali. Rising violence in Chad. Continued fighting in Lebanon. As the Iran war reaches 60 days, what’s emerging isn’t a clear path forward, but a global landscape shaped by distraction, opportunism, and escalation. While attention remains fixed on Iran, violence elsewhere is accelerating — often with far less scrutiny....

JNIM. Islamic State Sahel Province. Boko Haram. These are the groups driving a surge in violence across the Sahel—now the world’s deadliest region for terrorism. Across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, attacks are escalating at a pace that outstrips every other region globally. Coups, foreign troop withdrawals, and weakening state control have created space for militant groups to expand, adapt, and...

Six weeks into the Iran conflict, the tides are shifting rapidly—and the stakes could not be higher.  As the U.S. and Israel escalate their military posture, threatening to impose a naval blockade on Iran, a new chapter in regional power plays is unfolding—one that could redefine control over the Strait of Hormuz and the entire Persian Gulf.  In this episode of Conflict of Interest, ACLED CEO Prof...

A ceasefire has been announced in the Iran war — but is this really de-escalation, or a strategic defeat for the United States and its allies? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills break down the fragile Iran ceasefire, the unanswered questions around the deal, and why control of the Strait of Hormuz could leave Tehran in a stronger position...

President Trump said the Iran war objectives ‘near completion’ in a televised speech last night - But what does that actually mean? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh unpacks the latest developments in the Iran war with ACLED’s Media Manager, Bron Mills — from Iran’s leverage over key shipping routes to the limits of Israel’s decapitation strategy. They also expl...

The Iran war took another turn this weekend as Yemen’s Houthi movement officially entered the conflict, launching missile attacks against Israel and outlining new red lines that could pull more actors into the fight. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's Yemen expert Dr Luca Nevola to unpack what the Houthis’ decision means for the region....

One month into the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the focus is often on the battlefield. But wars rarely stay confined to one region. In this special extended edition of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED founder and CEO Clionadh Raleigh brings together regional experts from across the organisation to examine how the conflict is already reshaping dynamics far beyond the Middle East. Fr...

As the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran approaches its first month, the question many analysts are now asking is whether the conflict could escalate beyond airstrikes. With thousands of U.S. troops moving into the region and growing speculation about operations around the Strait of Hormuz, talk of a possible ground invasion is no longer hypothetical.  In this episode of Conflicts of...

As the war around Iran continues to widen, attention is turning to the network of militias linked to Tehran across the region. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , Prof. Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED experts Dr Luca Nevola and Bassel Doueik to unpack what’s happening on two key fronts: Yemen and Lebanon. Why has Hezbollah escalated from Lebanon, while the Houthis appear to be holding b...

The Iran war is more than a regional conflict. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , Bron Mills and ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh examine how the war between Iran, Israel, and the United States is expanding beyond the battlefield, affecting global energy markets, regional alliances, oil supply and the wider international system. They discuss the growing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, wher...

As strikes between Iran, Israel, and the United States continue, the conflict is entering a dangerous new phase. What began as an exchange of missile attacks is quickly evolving into a broader regional confrontation with global consequences. In this emergency episode of Conflict of Interest , ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh and media relations manager Bron Mills break down what the first ten days of th...

What happens when strikes, assassinations, and internal unrest collide inside one of the Middle East's most powerful states? In this emergency episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Media Relations Manager Bron Mills break down the rapidly escalating crisis in Iran — from US and Israeli strikes on military infrastructure and senior leadership, to instability ri...

What happens when the killing of Iran’s supreme leader sends shockwaves across an already volatile region? In this emergency episode of Conflicts of Interest , Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED Media Relations Manager Bron Mills to unpack the explosive developments in Iran and the wider Middle East following this weekend’s strikes. What do leadership decapitation, regional retaliation,...

Ukraine: Frozen frontlines. Frozen homes. Four years into the war, territorial change is minimal, but renewed strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have left civilians freezing. Ranked the deadliest country in the world by ACLED’s Conflict Index, the conflict is increasingly shaped by drones and attacks far from the battlefield. Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd break down what people st...