Universal Basic Kalshi Guys

Amir and Evan discuss the recent controversy surrounding the political ad involving Amy Acton's mother and its effect on the market for who will be the next governor of Ohio

The UBK Gang prices the chance that Ilhan Omar will be charged with a federal crime and takes a look at the Kalshi market for who will be charged with a federal crime this year with special attention paid to Cassidy Hutchinson and Kimberly Guilfoyle.

Brian Arbour, a political scientist at the City University of New York and an analyst on the Fox News election decision desk joins Evan to discuss the possibility of a Blue Wave in the midterm elections, the key battleground Senate races, and the most hotly contested House seats.

The UBK Gang discusses the market for whether Donald Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act, martial law, or suspend habeas corpus?

The UBK Gang searches for value in the market for the winner of Big Brother Season 28 with a close look at the pricing on Devens, Drew & Taylor.

The UBK gang reunites for Season 2 to discuss the Heritage Foundation and the Trump administration's attacks against higher education and the Kalshi market for whether Yale will settle with the Department of Justice over law school admissions.

Sunk cost fallacy is one of the most well-documented and costly cognitive biases in economics and psychology, and one that any successful investor or gambler must overcome. As the Summer of Learning continues, the UBK Gang explains what sunk costs are, why humans are psychologically wired to fall prey to this fallacy, and how to combat in your investing.

The Summer of Learning continues with an introduction to anchoring bias, the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered when making a decision, even when that information is arbitrary, irrelevant, or clearly wrong. The UBK gang goes deep on the seminal research of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky and how to combat anchoring bias in your own approach to prediction ma...

In May of 2026, Kalshi became the first company in U.S. history to offer CFTC-regulated perpetual futures contracts. As the Summer of Learning continues, the UBK gang explains what perpetuals are, how they work mechanically, and how they compare to options trading, which is the most familiar leveraged derivative for moat investors.

The UBK Gang's Summer of Learning begins with an introduction to prediction markets, including an explanation of the difference between prediction markets, parimutuel markets, and fixed-price wagering--and how market makers and takers work together to shape prices on Kalshi

Controversy recently exploded on Polymarket over the resolution of the more than $5.7 million mention market for whether the name "Donk" was uttered during a Counter Strike 2 broadcast. The UBK Gang takes a deep dive on how Polymarket resolves contested markets through the Optimistic Oracle and Universal Market Access coin--and the risks of corruption inherent in public resolution mechanisms. They...

The UBK Gang discusses the history of US involvement in the Middle East and the Kalshi market for whether there's likely to be a US-Iran nuclear deal by the end of the year.

The UB Gang takes a look at the Maine Senate race and examines whether Graham Platner and Susan Collins are worth a bet.  

McKenna returns & the UBK Gang discusses the unfolding Texas Senate race & related markets.

The UBK Gang explores the Kalshi markets for the release of additional data sets in the Epstein Files, and who will be named in them, if released.

Evan, a Knick fan of 50 years, and Amir, who became a Knick fan last week, discuss the market for the NBA Finals and sports betting generally.

The UBK gang considers the Kalshi market for how much democracy will weaken over the remaining course of the Trump presidency, as measured by The Economist's Democracy Index? Plus a bonus exploration of how much democracy, democratic norms have already been eroded!

The UBK Gang discusses state legislative limits on sports participation by transgender athletes and the Kalshi market for the upcoming Supreme Court decisions in West Virginia v. BPJ and Little v. Hecox, in which the Court will decide whether transgender sports bans violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

The UBK Gang takes a look at early trading in the market for the 2028 Republican primary, with close looks at the potential candidacies of Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, populist media pundit Tucker Carlson, and yes, President Donald J. Trump.

In the second part of this two-part series exploring the market for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary , the UBK gang assesses the chances of the leading contenders, with a particularly close look at the markets for the 2024 nominee Kamala Harris, AOC, and the group's value play, Pete Buttigieg.

The UBK Gang take a first look at the 2028 Democratic primary, and explores the fundamental dynamics of a race in which Democrats face an incumbent, term-limited Republican president. Part 1 focuses on an examination of the long shot candidates -- those trading at five cents or less -- including Ruben Gallego, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Andy Beshear.

The UBK Gang examines whether political identity quietly shapes the way people bet on prediction markets, and whether platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are as ideologically neutral as they claim to be. The research says they're not. A study of 1.8 million Polymarket betting records found that political leanings directly translate into economic outcomes. Researchers call it "wishful thinking bia...

The UBK Gang explores the Kalshi market on whether Donald Trump will run for a third term – a question that sits at the intersection of prediction markets, constitutional law, and the political psychology of the MAGA movement. The market is not simply a vet betting vehicle; it's a real-time barometer on how seriously traders take the erosion of constitutional norms under this administration.

Someone turned $2.1 million into $21 million on S&P options minutes before Trump's tariff pause. Six Polymarket accounts pocketed $1.2M in the hours before Israeli strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader. The Pam Bondi cabinet departure market jumped 18 points in a single session — before any public announcement. Is this insider trading? Probably. Can anyone prosecute it? That's where it gets com...

This morning, the President of the United States threatened to erase an entire civilization from the face of the earth. Tonight, he announced a 2-week ceasefire — 90 minutes before his own deadline. We break down every piece of today's chaos, put it in full context, and make the case for why this is one of the most important and under-reported stories in modern American history. We are 38 days int...