Universal Basic Kalshi Guys

The UBK Gang's Summer of Learning begins with an introduction to prediction markets, including an explanation of the difference between prediction markets, parimutuel markets, and fixed-price wagering--and how market makers and takers work together to shape prices on Kalshi

Controversy recently exploded on Polymarket over the resolution of the more than $5.7 million mention market for whether the name "Donk" was uttered during a Counter Strike 2 broadcast. The UBK Gang takes a deep dive on how Polymarket resolves contested markets through the Optimistic Oracle and Universal Market Access coin--and the risks of corruption inherent in public resolution mechanisms. They...

The UBK Gang discusses the history of US involvement in the Middle East and the Kalshi market for whether there's likely to be a US-Iran nuclear deal by the end of the year.

The UB Gang takes a look at the Maine Senate race and examines whether Graham Platner and Susan Collins are worth a bet.  

McKenna returns & the UBK Gang discusses the unfolding Texas Senate race & related markets.

The UBK Gang explores the Kalshi markets for the release of additional data sets in the Epstein Files, and who will be named in them, if released.

Evan, a Knick fan of 50 years, and Amir, who became a Knick fan last week, discuss the market for the NBA Finals and sports betting generally.

The UBK gang considers the Kalshi market for how much democracy will weaken over the remaining course of the Trump presidency, as measured by The Economist's Democracy Index? Plus a bonus exploration of how much democracy, democratic norms have already been eroded!

The UBK Gang discusses state legislative limits on sports participation by transgender athletes and the Kalshi market for the upcoming Supreme Court decisions in West Virginia v. BPJ and Little v. Hecox, in which the Court will decide whether transgender sports bans violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

The UBK Gang takes a look at early trading in the market for the 2028 Republican primary, with close looks at the potential candidacies of Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, populist media pundit Tucker Carlson, and yes, President Donald J. Trump.

In the second part of this two-part series exploring the market for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary , the UBK gang assesses the chances of the leading contenders, with a particularly close look at the markets for the 2024 nominee Kamala Harris, AOC, and the group's value play, Pete Buttigieg.

The UBK Gang take a first look at the 2028 Democratic primary, and explores the fundamental dynamics of a race in which Democrats face an incumbent, term-limited Republican president. Part 1 focuses on an examination of the long shot candidates -- those trading at five cents or less -- including Ruben Gallego, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Andy Beshear.

The UBK Gang examines whether political identity quietly shapes the way people bet on prediction markets, and whether platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are as ideologically neutral as they claim to be. The research says they're not. A study of 1.8 million Polymarket betting records found that political leanings directly translate into economic outcomes. Researchers call it "wishful thinking bia...

The UBK Gang explores the Kalshi market on whether Donald Trump will run for a third term – a question that sits at the intersection of prediction markets, constitutional law, and the political psychology of the MAGA movement. The market is not simply a vet betting vehicle; it's a real-time barometer on how seriously traders take the erosion of constitutional norms under this administration.

Someone turned $2.1 million into $21 million on S&P options minutes before Trump's tariff pause. Six Polymarket accounts pocketed $1.2M in the hours before Israeli strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader. The Pam Bondi cabinet departure market jumped 18 points in a single session — before any public announcement. Is this insider trading? Probably. Can anyone prosecute it? That's where it gets com...

This morning, the President of the United States threatened to erase an entire civilization from the face of the earth. Tonight, he announced a 2-week ceasefire — 90 minutes before his own deadline. We break down every piece of today's chaos, put it in full context, and make the case for why this is one of the most important and under-reported stories in modern American history. We are 38 days int...

Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, 2026 — and a now $2.5 million market has emerged on who comes next. On this episode of Universal Basic Kalshi Guys, Evan and Amir break down the Kalshi market for Trump's next Attorney General, walk through the leading candidates, assess their real probabilities, and ask the question the market is actually pricing: what does Trump want from the DO...

The UBK Gang assesses the floor of Donald Trump's approval rating and value plays for the midterm elections. Every president hits turbulence — but is Trump approaching a true political floor, or is there further to fall? In this episode, the UBK Gang breaks down the latest polling data, examines the structural limits of Trump's approval rating, and asks the question every political strategist is g...

The UBK Gang discusses the $12 million market for whether the US government will confirm the existence of aliens--one of the biggest non-sports markets on Kalshi.

The UBK Guys define lock propositions, identify their top 10 locks for the remainder of the year, and discuss how to create a diversified value portfolio.

The UBK Gang uses the markets for season 22 of The Bachelorette as a launching point for discussing emerging markets and efforts to quantify the risks of insider trading.

The UBK Guys analyze markets relating to the Iran war, including the chance of democratization and reopening of the American embassy.

Special guest Dan Bubbeo of Newsday joins the UBK Guys to preview the markets for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Director with an eye to value.

The UBK Guys recap their positions on the shutdown, discuss the difference between gambling and investing, and analyze the open markets for the remaining cases of the Supreme Court 2025-26 term including transgender sports bans, weakening of the Voting Rights Act, and banning of mail order ballots.

The UBK Guys review their State of the Union bets including a discussion of the bandwagon effect and assess the government shutdown market.