Evan Mandery
Universal Basic Kalshi Guys
A pair of long-time investors and social scientists navigate the prediction market with a focus on politics and the heuristic biases that derail most speculators.
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Épisodes
Who Will Trump Appoint to Replace Pam Bondi 05.04.2026 41:17
Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, 2026 — and a now $2.5 million market has emerged on who comes next. On this episode of Universal Basic Kalshi Guys, Evan and Amir break down the Kalshi market for Trump's next Attorney General, walk through the leading candidates, assess their real probabilities, and ask the question the market is actually pricing: what does Trump want from the DO...
Trump & the Midterms: How Low Can Trump Go? 03.04.2026 53:29
The UBK Gang assesses the floor of Donald Trump's approval rating and value plays for the midterm elections. Every president hits turbulence — but is Trump approaching a true political floor, or is there further to fall? In this episode, the UBK Gang breaks down the latest polling data, examines the structural limits of Trump's approval rating, and asks the question every political strategist is g...
Will the U.S. Confirm That Aliens Exist? 27.03.2026 47:13
The UBK Gang discusses the $12 million market for whether the US government will confirm the existence of aliens--one of the biggest non-sports markets on Kalshi.
Top 10 Value Plays for the Year 21.03.2026 41:21
The UBK Guys define lock propositions, identify their top 10 locks for the remainder of the year, and discuss how to create a diversified value portfolio.
Who Will Win The Bachelorette? 18.03.2026 51:09
The UBK Gang uses the markets for season 22 of The Bachelorette as a launching point for discussing emerging markets and efforts to quantify the risks of insider trading.
Iran -- A War to Play 13.03.2026 42:58
The UBK Guys analyze markets relating to the Iran war, including the chance of democratization and reopening of the American embassy.
Oscars Preview 2026 11.03.2026 38:31
Special guest Dan Bubbeo of Newsday joins the UBK Guys to preview the markets for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Director with an eye to value.
UBK Guys v. SCOTUS 06.03.2026 50:08
The UBK Guys recap their positions on the shutdown, discuss the difference between gambling and investing, and analyze the open markets for the remaining cases of the Supreme Court 2025-26 term including transgender sports bans, weakening of the Voting Rights Act, and banning of mail order ballots.
Forecasting the Government Shutdown 27.02.2026 44:15
The UBK Guys review their State of the Union bets including a discussion of the bandwagon effect and assess the government shutdown market.
State of the Union 2026 20.02.2026 49:44
Value propositions in the markets for who's going to attend the State of the Union address 2K26 and what DJT is likely to say. (Spoiler: We're short on Musk!)
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