The Buffer State

Russia's war in Ukraine has created unexpected economic opportunities for some of its neighbors. Now, the Iran war is accelerating interest in a trade route that bypasses both countries. In this episode of Buffer State, Sasha and Reid join Alexander Cooley to explore how sanctions, Russian tech workers, and the Middle Corridor are reshaping Central Asia and the Caucasus. From post-Soviet indep...

What does it mean to win the US? In this episode of Buffer State, Sasha Shtern, Reid Smith, Justin Logan, and Christopher discuss how artificial intelligence could reshape geopolitics, military power, and competition between the United States and China.02:12 Introduction: AI and the balance of power10:06 Can AI Change the Balance of Global Power?19:18 Why the Best AI Models Matter24:16 AI's Im...

When Donald Trump meets Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, or Xi Jinping, what does the image itself accomplish before any deal is signed? In this episode of Buffer State, Sasha Stern and Reid Smith sit down with Minseon Ku to explore the role of political optics, presidential summits, and face-to-face meetings with adversaries. Ku argues that these encounters cannot be judged only by treaties, concessi...

Why does U.S. foreign policy stay stuck even when Washington knows its prioritieshave changed? As China becomes the central long-term challenge, the United States remains heavily committed to the Middle East and Europe, and the machinery of American foreign policy is built to move slowly. In this episode of Buffer State, Sasha Stern, Reid Smith, and Chart Westcott sit down with Christopher S. Chiv...

American foreign policy is supposed to be made through presidents, Congress, cabinet agencies, and the National Security Council. In practice, the process is far messier. In this episode of Buffer State, Sasha Stern, Reid Smith, and Justin Logan look inside Washington’s policy machine, the institutions, incentives, personal relationships, and media ecosystem that shape American foreign policy. The...

Nuclear deterrence depends on convincing adversaries that escalation could become dangerously costly. But as the United States extends that protection across Europe and East Asia, can its allies continue relying on the American nuclear umbrella—or should countries like Germany, Japan, and South Korea develop nuclear forces of their own? In this episode of Buffer State, Sasha Stern and Reed Smith s...

China’s advantage in critical minerals may not come down to geology, subsidies, or control of processing alone. Chinese mining companies may also be moving faster and operating more efficiently than their Western competitors. In this episode of Buffer State, Sasha Stern and Justin Logan sit down with David Cole, an economic geologist, mining executive, and capital allocator with more than two deca...

The era of unquestioned American primacy may be ending. So what should U.S. foreign policy look like in a world where power is increasingly shared among rival states, regional powers, and allies? In this episode of Buffer State, Sasha Stern and Reid Smith sit down with Emma Ashford, Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center and author of First Among Equals: U.S. Foreign Policy for a Multipolar World. As...

Energy is not just a commodity. It is the physical foundation beneath prosperity, industry, military power, and the computational economy. In this episode of Buffer State, Sasha Stern and Reed Smith sit down with Ron Gusek, CEO and President of Liberty Energy, to discuss energy security, oil and gas, China, global supply chains, and the future of American power. Gusek argues that energy policy can...

America is the most secure great power in modern history. But does that security make it more careful — or more willing to fight? In this episode of Buffer State, Sasha Stern and Reed Smith sit down with Justin Logan, Director of Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, to discuss Iran, American restraint, military power, diplomacy, drones, missile defense, and the future of U.S....

America is the most powerful country in the world. But what should that power actually be used for? In this episode of Buffer State, Sasha Stern and Reed Smith sit down with Ed King, founder and president of Defense Priorities, to discuss American restraint, NATO, foreign policy, and the future of U.S. national security. King argues that the United States enjoys abundant security - and that Americ...