Markets Update with TreasuryONE

Key points In the past week, there have been many geopolitical developments that have raised some eyebrows. Most of them can potentially escalate into something catastrophic and negatively impact risk appetite. Given the ZAR’s recent appreciation and the stretched nature of the move, the ZAR faces some risk asymmetry. The greater the geopolitical tensions, the more reason to be sceptical of the ZA...

The rand has been performing well and appears poised to remain strong in 2025. Easing US-China tensions, improved local politics, and lower-than-expected inflation in South Africa are all contributing to the currency's strength.    The rand is now trading at a fair value, and with the US dollar likely to weaken, the rand could move closer to R17 per dollar.  More money flowing into South Afric...

Bottom Line  The SARB resumed its monetary policy easing cycle, cutting the Repo Rate by 25bp to 7.25% at its May MPC meeting. The vote among MPC members was split 5-1, with the dissenting voice favouring a 50bp rate cut. The SARB lowered its inflation forecasts through 2027. It now expects inflation to average 3.2% in 2025 (down from 3.6%), and 4.2% and 4.4% in the following two years (previously...

Key points Many of SA’s failings were highlighted publicly when President Ramaphosa and his SA delegation flew to the US to meet with President Trump to correct any misinformation and repair relations with the US. Relations have frayed for many reasons, and it would be a mistake to think it was only due to recent events. They have not helped, but SA’s relations with the US have deteriorated steadi...

At TreasuryONE, we understand that accurate and reliablecash flow forecasting is fundamental to sound financial decision-making. For too long, Excel has been the mainstay for treasury teams, but its limitations have become glaring in today’s fast-paced, data-driven financial environment. That’s why TreasuryONE has introduced an advanced, AI-powered forecasting service using industry-leading techno...

Andre Cilliers, Currency Strategist at TreasuryONE, chats to The Money Show host, Bruce Whitfield about currency instability that has resurfaced due to geopolitical factors contributing to speculation on the dollar.

Zimbabwe’s new currency, the ZiG, strengthened a day after its debut. The currency gained 0.2% to 13.53 per US dollar, according to data published on the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s website on Tuesday.

Currency Strategist at TreasuryONE, Andre Cilliers tries to explain why the United States of America's dollar is starting to weaken and the factors contributing to the dollar downfall.

TreasuryONE Currency Risk Strategist, Andre Cilliers, joins the breakfast show on Kaya FM to discuss currency manipulation. #currencymarkets #financialnews #currencymanipulation

Andre Cilliers on Kaya fm

TreasuryONE Currency Risk Strategist Andre Cilliers joins the team on Power Talk to discuss currency manipulation. #CurrencyManipulation #currencymarkets #currencynews

TreasuryONE Currency Risk Strategist Andre Cilliers joins the team on Power Talk to discuss currency manipulation. #CurrencyManipulation #currencymarkets #currencynews

President Cyril Ramaphosa made the surprise declaration of a special public holiday in honour of the Springboks win of the Rugby World Cup in France. TreasuryONE currency strategist Andre Cilliers considers the impact of the additional public holiday on the South African economy.

The Treasury is set to increase borrowing, cut expenditure, and implement tax hikes to offset a revenue deficit projected at nearly R57 billion rand. A rising trend in deficits and debt is evident, with the gross debt expected to hit 77.7% of GDP by 2025-26, up from 73.6%. Over the upcoming three years, the proportion of debt-service costs relative to revenue will grow from 20.7% in 2023-24 to 22....

With the recent outbreak of hostilities between Hamas and Israel, we can possibly see the global market landscape shift. Coupled with that, as US treasury yields continue to climb, many are wondering when the Federal Reserve will consider pausing or adjusting its monetary policy. In an ever-changing world, understanding what comes next is crucial. TreasuryONE hosted a webinar with ETM Analytics, w...

TreasuryONE's Currency Strategist, Andre Cilliers, talks to the hosts of Hot 1027 fm Business on Forex trading. Forex trading volumes in South Africa are projected to be over $19.1 billion.

Wichard Cilliers, Andre Botha, and The Finance Ghost dives into some of the most pressing topics surrounding currency and financial news. #TreasuryONE #financialmarkets #currencynews

Big Mac index Andre Cilliers, Director and Currency Strategist at TreasuryONE on the Big Mac Index revealing that the ZAR is undervalued by 50%. #CurrencyMarkets #BigMacIndex #TreasuryONE #702 #TheMoneyShow

The latest update to The Economist's Big Mac index shows that - theoretically - the rand should be trading at R8.94/dollar. The index compares the prices of McDonald's Big Mac hamburgers in different countries to determine whether currencies are overvalued, or too cheap. In this interview with KAYA FM, Andre Cilliers, Currency Strategist at at TreasuryONE gives his insight. #KayaFM #Treasu...

It’s already been a busy week with an interest rate announcement still to come as well. Credit ratings agency, Fitch has fired a warning shot calling on the South African government to keep its debt to GDP ratio in check, or face a further downgrade into junk territory. Failing state owned enterprises and municipalities have drained the fiscus, non more so than Eskom, which, by the way, is possibl...

The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting took centre stage last week---almost all the Fed officials voted to pause in June to buy time to assess the impact of its monetary tightening so far---which is a cumulative 500 basis points to date….and the cracks from the tighter monetary conditions are starting to show up here and there…the non-farm payroll data, published on Friday, while stil...

Last week we watched Russia; this week it’s France, where nightly riots and looting events have popped up in some places - including Paris - following the death of a teenager at a roadblock. Although events may be losing steam, fears remain that similar flare-ups could spread. It is reflective of how flammable some parts have become due social inequality, income disparities and xenophobic trends i...

The dust has now settled in Moscow and now everyone is wondering what’s going to happen next. Yevgeny Prigozhin marched on the capital city –in what he says was to protect the Wagner group. The events of the past weekend followed months of tension between Prigozhin and Russia’s military leaders who have been pushing for control over the mercenary group. But the Wagner leader was never going to giv...

The Rand is having a good June—managing to reverse May’s losses and even made back a little more ground. It has now reached a point where in the absence of a fresh catalyst, the ZAR faces a tough task punching through the R18-20 to the Dollar mark..it could enjoy a more consolidative trading session this week—barring any corrections in the US Dollar.