Markets Update with TreasuryONE

#SARB #IntererestRate #Inflation

The Rand recorded its weakest closing levels against the US Dollar on Friday - as South Africa’s risk profile continues to deteriorate. But the ongoing US debt ceiling discussions have put the greenback on the defensive - however a breakthrough is expected soon, which is expected to settle the markets somewhat and provide a boost for a broader risk appetite. The Rand is expected to take direction...

Andre Cilliers, director and currency strategist at TreasuryONE gives insight on the performance of the rand #KayaBizzFM #TreasuryONE #AndreCilliers #ZAR #CurrencyMarkets

A thought-provoking discussion about the concept of dedollarisation. In this episode, we explore the potential signs of a shifting global landscape away from the dominance of the US dollar and the implications it may have on international trade, currencies, and economic stability. #Dedollarisation #FinancialMarkets #GlobalEconomy #TreasuryONE #ETMAnalytics

After the vast moves from last week, we have seen that the Rand has started to stabilize a little. The Rand briefly broke below R19.00 against the US dollar but has traded sideways between R19.03 to R19.12 for most of the day. We did see the Rand move stronger in the Asian trade, and one can only hope that a few days of no new headlines could help the Rand break below the R19.00 level. The US doll...

The Rand has been hitting the headlines for all the wrong reasons of late, and we did see the Rand touch a new all-time level, with the Rand touching R19.50 at its height today. The Rand did have some reprieve and is currently trading at R19.3000 against the US dollar. With headlines currently in focus, it only takes a negative headline to see the Rand break higher again, and the world now has its...

The report that SA has been arming Russia has been the final nail in the coffin for the ZAR today, pushing the USD-ZAR to near-record highs. The USD-ZAR intraday high stood at R19.33, marking a week-to-date loss of more than 5% for the rand against the USD. If the accusations are true and hold water, sanctions on SA become a real possibility.

George Glynos from ETM takes us through all the local factors that are hampering the rand currently, highlighting the problems at Eskom. #Eskom

Rand Update The rand is trading back towards the middle of our wider range, currently floating just above the R18.30 handle. Risk sentiment remains unfavorable for EMs, with most currencies unmoved on a lackluster day. Focus is shifting towards the US inflation print on Wednesday, with inflation expected to ease to 5.5% in April. That said, the dollar is holding its ground against the euro and the...

US non-Farm Payrolls hurt EM US non-farm payrolls surprised on the top side once again, coming out at 253,000 versus the 185,000 expected. Unemployment in the US fell to 3.4% in April from 3.5% a month prior. Average hourly earnings are also up. Treasury yields are also rising as interest rates could stay higher longer. We have seen the US dollar on the front foot, with the greenback trading below...

ECB follows Fed The ECB followed in the footsteps of the FOMC last night by hiking 25bps earlier today. The ECB commented that they are not yet close to pausing interest rate hikes and are closely following inflation and pressures on the financial system. The gold price continued to rally during the day, with the yellow metal testing $2,070. The impact of tightening monetary policies and global re...

Oil continues to fall Oil is down for a third straight day, with WTI oil below $70 a barrel. The prospect of the US recession and the spillover effects worldwide is curbing oil demand. OPEC+ members will loom to cut supply, and with inventories in the US falling by less than expected, will this halt the slide? All eyes on the US Fed Will Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak dovish or hawkish after the in...

Risk-off ahead of the May FOMC meeting? JOLTS data came out under expectations for the second month in a row. It shows that job openings are declining and now sits at the lowest level in 2 years, indicating that the US labor market is cooling. The US equity markets are under pressure on the back of this. We are seeing more risk-off creeping into the market, with the May FOMC meeting starting tonig...

The Rand and other currencies traded sideways for most of the day, with the Rand trading in a 10-cent range. We had a little flurry of activity after the PCE inflation release, but the action was quelled quickly as the number came out as expected (4.6%). The US dollar has been trading around the 1.1000 level for most of the day, and we believe markets will continue to trade in a sideways fashion,...

With renewed questions about the banking sector in the US and risk-off regarding the recession talk in the market, we have seen the market unsure of what can happen next, and the market has been trading erratically on the back of that. Just how erratic the market has been, we have seen the US dollar almost touching the 1.1100 level against the Euro, but the Rand and some other emerging markets hav...

Andre Cilliers on Kaya FM 95.9 - Breakfast

Market trading sideways ahead of busy week Currency markets traded sideways today with the data-filled week ahead of us. The Euro managed to breach the 1.10 level while the other majors are relatively flat for the day. The rand continues with the current range between R18.00 and R18.50, as local bond inflows remain lackluster. The US data could perhaps provide a pivotal view of future Fed Hikes, b...

Rand gains are still stubborn, and dollar data is still important The rand is still struggling to manage a break below R18.00. Poor local infrastructure and concerns over South Africa’s “Russian Ties” keep investors from flooding into our already high-yielding bonds. This week’s higher-than-expected inflation print and the Fed talking a big game has led to economists excepting another 2 x 25bps by...

Rand testing the bottom of the range For the third time in a week, the Rand is testing the bottom of the R18.00/50 range, as the Rand enjoyed the fact that the US dollar slipped a little today. The question now becomes whether the Rand is forming a base here or has enough momentum to break below R18.00. With little in the way of significant data left for the week, we suspect that the Rand could st...

Global inflation is still sticky Although some countries have seen inflation starting to turn downward, as we can see from the chart, the bulk of the countries' worldwide inflation is still in an uptrend (blue line), with the inflation only down slightly, depicted by the white line. Our local inflation came out higher than expected today, and the UK's inflation printed above 10% for the 7t...

Dollar gains fade, EM's stronger for the day Recent dollar gains have faded today after Fed speakers' hawkish rhetoric has been the markets' main driver in the past few days. The dollar has lost ground across the board, and markets will likely turn their attention back to US Data out in the coming weeks. The rand has benefited from the softer dollar and improving risk sentiment, grindi...

Fed speakers not keen to pause on interest rate hikes The dollar has been on the front foot for the day as Fed speakers are still talking about a big hiking cycle game. The market is fully pricing a 25bps hike at the May meeting and is only slightly pricing in more hikes after that. The 2Y treasury yields have rallied around 30bps in the last two days. The problem the Fed sits with is that the who...

Dollar losing more ground US PPI for March came out below expectations, increasing 2.7% vs. the 3% expectation. Apart from that, Jobless claims increased for a third week in a row, perhaps indicating that the labour market is not as solid as the Non-Farm Payroll number indicated on Friday. The data followed a week where CPI also printed below expectations, and the Fed warned that they are weary of...

US inflation The inflation in the US was released, and now the question is will the Fed continue to hike interest rates? Headline inflation came out at 5% which is below the expected 5.2% in March. However, the Fed is keeping a firm eye on core inflation and services inflation. Looking at the graph one can see this remains stubbornly sticky. The market is still largely pricing in a 25bps hike at t...

Rand recovers after long weekend After Friday's US non-farm payroll number and a lack of liquidity in the market yesterday, we saw the Rand touching the R18.50 level. We expected the Rand to recover slightly as liquidity returned to the local market. That turned out to be the case as we saw the US dollar slipping against the Euro, and that bodes well for the Rand as the Rand clawed back some o...