Views from Down Underer

What happened or not in the Alaska summit between Trump and Putin?  Two Chinese ships collided while doing a pincer move chasing a Philippine coast guard vessel.  Will there be escalation in the future?

We discuss a paper on the political economy of geoeconomic power and discuss what theory means when applied to real world empirics.  In an New York Times guest essay authored by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer titled "Why We Remade the Global Order," Greer argues that the agreement between the EU and the US made at Turnberry resort is a new world order much like Bretton Woods set the postwa...

The Thai-Cambodia border skirmish has now escalated with both sides firing artillery across their borders.  Why the escalation now?  Japan's LDP loses its upper house majority and what does it mean for PM Ishiba's tenure as LDP party leader.  Taiwan has a recall election in a bid to unseat KMT legislators and allow the DPP to regain legislative majority that the ruling party lost in the January 20...

White House has sent out tariff letters to numerous countries but the the import taxes do not take effect till August 1st.  FM Penny Wong gave a speech in the ASEAN meeting about managing differences between allies.  Other interesting news such as the confirmation grilling of the US ambassador-designate to Singapore, the advanced RAF fighter jet stuck in India, and how Myanmar military junta recei...

China's FM had a meeting with EU counterpart to discuss outstanding issues on bilateral relations.  A Philippine documentary "Food Delivery" on the South China Sea has received attention such that there are active lobbying by Chinese diplomats to not show the documentary.  There is still continuing fallout from the leaked call of the Thai PM with former Cambodian PM.  Thai PM is suspended pending...

US bombed Iran's nuclear facility about a week after Israel attacked Iran.  Why did the US attack now?  Will their be a fallout from this decision?  Is there a risk of a widening regional conflict?  Thailand's border conflict with Cambodia has a new twist.  A private phone conversation between the Thai PM and Cambodia's ex-strongman leader Hun Sen was leaked and led to calls for resignation of the...

Israel attacked Iran to decapitate its nuclear program and Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks.  Will this turn into a regional war? NZ PM will visit Beijing, with lots going on domestically and internationally what are some of their likely talking points?  Pentagon has decided to review the AUKUS arrangements catching Australia by surprise and also ahead of an upcoming visit by the Aus...

South Korean liberal politician Lee Jae-myung won the presidency.  With Korean society so polarised is this a 'poisoned chalice.'  Trump administration in a spat with California threatened to cut federal funding, in turn California governor Gavin Newsom threatened to not turn over California's federal taxes.  What is this spat all about?  Thailand and Cambodia are having a dispute over part of its...

Shangrila Dialogue was held in Singapore last week.  French president Macron spoke of the importance of Europe to engage Asia.  US defense secretary Hegseth warns about hedging and implores regional states to spend at least 5% on their defense.  Interestingly, China did not send their defense minister instead an academic delegation from their defense university.

US naval ship visits New Zealand after PLA Navy ships showed up in the Tasman Sea several months ago.  With NZ planning to increase defense spending does this mean a closer defense relationship between the two countries since the breakup of ANZUS in the late 1980s?  Philippine midterm elections shows the strength of political dynasties in the Philippines and the seeming weakness of Philippine poli...

Prominent international relations scholar, Joseph Nye, passes away.  We chat about his contribution to the study of international relations.  Catholic Church has a new pope and the first born in the US.  Asia's demand for US dollar is waning, what does it mean and what are likely implications?  US is upping intelligence gathering on Greenland and Danish government protests this action.

The general elections of Canada, Australia, and Singapore returned incumbents and shows voters are voting for stability and steady hands at this time of global uncertainty.

NZ FM gave a speech at the East-West Center in Honolulu titled "Enduring Pacific Partnerships" that talks about the importance of NZ relations with US especially in the context of Pacific partnerships.  Trump and Zelensky met just before the funeral mass of Pope Francis where Trump noted that Russia may not be serious about ending the war with Ukraine.  Lastly, the caution and warning about foreig...

The new State of Southeast Asia Survey is out and provides a snapshot of public opinions from SEA about all things that concern the region.  Here is a link to the survey: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/centres/asean-studies-centre/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2025-survey-report/  

Trump's liberation day announcement and the 'reciprocal' tariffs led to stock market crash and high market volatility.  With global stock markets shedding trillions of dollars from its value and the eventual hit on US Treasury bonds as investors dump the bonds and yields on the bonds rise, Trump put a temporary 90-day halt on the tariffs.  President Trump and the US blinked as the market taught it...

South Korean constitutional court removes president Yoon for declaring an illegal martial law in early December 2024. New presidential election is set for June 3rd.  Trump administration launched the so called 'liberation day' by slapping 'reciprocal' tariffs on its own major trading partners.  Markets are reacting with the significant declines of major stock markets.

Former Philippine president Duterte was arrested on an ICC warrant.  What is this about and what are the implications to Philippine politics?  The P-8 Poseidon is termed as a 'once in a generation' acquisition for the RNZAF but recent news report that the servicing of the planes cannot be done in New Zealand due to absence of technical capabilities. Why?  Lastly, interesting evolution of kit/shirt...

Panama canal deal by Hutchison Holdings is heavily criticised by China.  What is it all about?  NZ PM Luxon led a huge delegation to visit India and announced that both countries will negotiate a free trade deal.  US is brokering a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, what are new updates.

Germany plans to spend big in defense spending as US commitment to Europe weakens, India says that benefits of postwar order is exaggerated signalling the end of the international rules-based order as we know it.  China is reported to be very critical of the recent port deals by Hutchison.  Voice of America is cutting staff and funding while Canada is reassessing whether to still buy the F35s or n...

US announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.  Canada considers this an aggressive action by the US that seeks to weaken Canada. The fallout of the Oval Office shakedown continues as US freezes support to Ukraine.  What is happening here? What is the implications to international politics?

The 2025 German Federal election results are out: governing SPD is third, CDU/CSU is tops, the far right AfD came in a strong second.  What is the new picture of vote distribution across Germany? What does it mean for coalition and future governance?  What does it mean for its foreign policy?  Ukraine's president Zelensky went to the Oval Office expecting to discuss and then sign the US-Ukraine mi...

US and Russia met in Saudi Arabia to discuss ground rules for negotiations to end the Ukraine war although no Ukrainians and Europeans attended.  What does it mean?  What are the implications?  PLA Navy task force is spotted in international waters near Australia and NZ and disrupted commercial air traffic by having live fire exercises.  Why?  What is the point of Chinese navy presence?  And a qui...

Is this now an era of stick power in international relations? An era of my way or the highway?  US VP Vance spoke at the Munich Security Conference and lectured (or read the riot act) his European audience.  NZ and Cook Islands are having an uncomfortable moment in their relationship when Cook Islands signed an agreement with China without prior alert to NZ.

Busy two weeks of Trump's administration and foreign policy is no exception -- Gaza proposal, hard talk about Panama Canal, turning El Salvador as a penal colony.  Malaysia's chairing of ASEAN has been quiet and unambitious thus far, why?

US president Donald Trump has been busy since his inauguration one week ago.  We chat about his inauguration speech and other things in President Trump's eventful week one on the first week of his 2nd term as US president.