Unhedged

President Donald Trump has loudly proclaimed his desire for lower interest rates. Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, responding to persistent inflation, has kept rates higher. And keeps mentioning that he can’t be fired. But is this true? Today on the show, the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles joins Katie Martin to discuss an upcoming legal case that might increase the president’s abi...

President Donald Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine has been a great success … for European defence companies. Meanwhile, traders are selling American defence contractors, and the US market is sluggish. Now the president is threatening huge tariffs on Europe. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter struggle to understand what the Trump administration actually wants and how far the American e...

Have the vibes shifted? Slowing growth and stubborn inflation seem to be putting a chill on a once exuberant market. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter ask if this all adds up to “stagflation”, one of the scariest words in the economic lexicon. Also they go short US defence stocks.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You...

The markets are booming but there are fewer and fewer new entrants. And they don’t seem to be exciting to investors. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter talk with Jenn Hughes about her latest newsletter on the weak IPO market. Also they go long the 10-year treasury and short the Treasury secretary’s plans to “monetize” the federal balance sheet.  For a free 30-day trial to the Un...

Donald Trump and his Treasury secretary have signaled their support for a sovereign wealth fund. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris also discussed it. But is it a good idea? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter make the case for and against a radical new plan for American capital. Also, they go long the reappearance of Chinese billionaire Jack Ma, and long Diet Coke.  For a free 30-day t...

Coverage of President Donald Trump’s tariffs tends to focus on their effect on American consumers. That’s important, but it’s only half the story, or less. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin welcome Alan Beattie to discuss how the rest of the world is responding to the Trump tariffs, and what leverage they might have. Also, they go long eggs, and the neutral interest rate, and short...

Gold is traditionally a hedge against instability. And it’s reaching record highs. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong look at the demand for gold and try to figure out if the market is trying to tell us something. They also short the penny and go long tech bro drama. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Arm...

European stock indices have outperformed the S&P 500 so far this year. The FT’s Aiden Reiter joins Katie Martin to discuss why investors are finally looking beyond US stocks and why Donald Trump’s policies could accidentally benefit global exporters. Also, we go short posthumous publishing and 24-hour stock trading.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft...

The tariffs have arrived. Canada and Mexico have negotiated delays, China is retaliating, and investors are trying to figure out what comes next. The FT’s Aiden Reiter joins Katie Martin to discuss what Donald Trump gains from following through on his campaign promises and whether there are limits to how much America can boss other countries around. Also, we go short London’s tea culture and long...

It’s time for the FT’s annual stockpicking contest, where the money is fake but the glory is real. The FT’s Alan Livsey joins Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter to discuss what bets they think will pay off in a potentially volatile year. Now more than ever, this is not investing advice. Enter the contest at ft.com/stockpick2025 . For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft...

DeepSeek’s announcement that it has built competitive AI using many fewer resources than big US rivals stunned the markets this week. Chipmakers and power companies plunged in value, and Sam Altman, boss of OpenAI, pronounced himself ‘legit’ invigorated. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out what China’s advances mean for US markets. Also, they organize a fight betwee...

Donald Trump’s first week in office has produced a barrage of policies and power moves. But which of them will happen? Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong, and Aiden Reiter try to figure out which announcements are real, and which of those will move markets. Also they short the peso and go long the enjoyment of watching the president and Elon Musk in the weirdest buddy movie of all time...

Each year the Financial Times hosts a stock-picking contest for its journalists and readers. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong explain the logic behind their absolute bombs. And then to find out how it’s done, they speak with their colleague Kadhim Shubber, who won the contest last year. Also they go long Gail’s Bakery and short strategic ambiguity.   For a free 30-day tr...

Reports of the demise of US inflation have been greatly exaggerated. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss the continuing high numbers and what the Fed might do about it this year. Also they go long Ohio State and short New Year’s resolutions.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Ka...

US bonds and UK gilts are tracking each other, and heading down. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin try to figure out whether to blame chancellor Rachel Reeves, or the whole world. Also, Rob goes short pretentious editorials and Katie coins a new term, “Brovid”, to describe the mind virus causing a notable increase in edgelords.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged new...

Corporate bankruptcies are on the rise. In recent months, Party City, Big Lots, Spirit Airlines, and other discount providers have declared bankruptcy. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter try to figure out why, and what it means for the overall economy. Also they go long ceramics and long the Arctic.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/u...

Tariffs. Tax cuts. Geopolitics. Artificial intelligence. Inflation. Mass deportations. Rate cuts or rises. The year ahead is filled with question marks. Meanwhile, markets are historically high. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out what could go right, wrong and straight down the middle. Also, they short air fryers and go long jewellery for men.  For a free 30-d...

Happy new year, Unhedged listeners! Today on the show, Rob Armstrong, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter answer questions from the listeners on everything from the takeover of passive investing to favorite metrics. Also, we forgo long and short and announce our new year’s resolutions.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert...

The US government owns many billions of dollars worth of bitcoin, confiscated from bad actors such as the Silk Road marketplace. Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he would not be selling it. Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a bill suggesting the government buy more and create a national strategic reserve of crypto currency. Today on the show, Katie Martin asks FT contributor Toby N...

The Federal Reserve announced a small cut yesterday. Normally, that heartens markets. But we are not in normal times, and somewhat measured comments about the coming year seemed to have spooked traders. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter try to figure out what happened, and why. Also we go long holiday wish lists and short gift cards.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged ne...

The road to riches used to be paved with juicy IPOs. But that does not seem to be the case anymore. Today on the show, Katie Martin is joined by Craig Coben, a former global head of equity capital markets at Bank of America, and now a contributing writer for FT Alphaville. They discuss regulation and demand, and the growing role of private equity in corporate ownership. Also, they go short France...

There have been very few mergers and acquisitions in the past four years, but many dealmakers say that’s about to change. At least that’s according to reporting by James Fontanella-Khan, our guest on the show today. Fontanella-Khan is the FT’s US deals reporter, and he speaks with Rob Armstrong about the shape of deals to come, and how anti-trust policy might look over the next four years. Also, t...

Ukraine, Syria, Moldova, France, Israel, South Korea, the US…. Power is being challenged and redistributed around the world. But how are markets reacting, which changes truly matter to the global multinational corporations that power the markets, and why are markets so bad at predicting these upheavals? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter take stock of the rearrangements. Also they go...

Among his many promises, president-elect Donald Trump is promising to drive down the price of energy in the US. But how realistic a plan is that? What levers does he have to pull? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk about how oil is priced and what moves that price. Also they go long parliamentary democracy and short brunch.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newslett...

Ruchir Sharma, an investor and frequent contributor to the FT, came out and said it the other day: The US stock market is in a bubble. But is it a bubble or just the rational behavior of investors who believe the US really is exceptional? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss the outlandishly good performance of the US market, and ask how long it can last. Also they go long Elo...