The Weekly Insight

Nine trading days. That's how long it took the S&P 500 to recover every point it lost since the Iran war began. The COVID crash — which was considered one of the fastest recoveries in market history — took 104 trading days. Twelve times longer. The market's message is clear: this conflict is a disruption, not a recession. Recession odds in prediction markets never came close to what...

A significant amount of Qatar's LNG just went offline for 3-5 years. Canadian LNG just came online. The market hasn't connected those dots yet — but it will. That's one of three opportunities we're building toward in this week's memo. The others: Emerging Markets, where a war-driven selloff has created a 6.6 percentage point gap vs. the S&P 500. And small caps — but no...

Five Trump announcements about the Iran war. Five market rallies. Every single one fully reversed within a week. By Friday, the market didn't even bother with a rally. That's the story of the last month. The market’s been trading the rhetoric, not the facts on the ground. But Friday, the market has stopped buying it. But here's what matters more: we've seen this movie before. A...

Part of the problem with drafting these memos is the news can change quickly.  When we wrote this on Sunday night, we noted: “If the deadline passes without significant escalation, it may end proving Trump’s Friday missive. It may be the biggest offramp yet.” Monday morning — somebody blinked. Trump announced "very good and productive conversations" with Iran and postponed all strikes on...

The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo removed 7% of the world's oil supply. It gave us gas lines, 11% inflation, and interest rates that eventually hit 20%. It defined a decade. The Strait of Hormuz closure is removing 20%. And yet — Wall Street's earnings estimates for 2026 have not moved one inch since the war began. The S&P is down 3.6%. That gap is about to close. Q1 earnings season starts i...

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-old-playbook-doesnt-apply/

The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide. 20% of the world's oil flows through it every day. As of Saturday, it's effectively closed. We've been warning about this exact scenario since April 2024. Now it's here. In this week's memo, we break down: → Why the U.S. Navy can control the Strait but can't make shippers transit it  → Why pipeline alternatives only solve 13% of...

Is AI going to end the world? Destroy every software company? Bankrupt the biggest tech companies on earth? If you've watched the news lately, you'd think the answer to all three is yes. Here's the problem: the math doesn't work. You can't be right about all of them at once. This week we go all the way back to the Luddites — 19th century textile workers who literally smash...

Markets have been pricing in a weaker dollar for months. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin all jumped in value. And traders were expecting a Fed chair announcement that would continue that theme. Instead, they got Kevin Warsh – a hawk whose resume screams “strong dollar”. The result? More than $8 trillion in paper wealth vaporized as gold, silver and Bitcoin all retreated. But the issues that caused the p...

Great earnings aren’t enough anymore. The market is telling us something – and it’s been saying it for 90 days. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-great-rebalancing/

We had a wild start to the market last week. Markets fell. Headlines screamed. Fear spiked. But by week’s end, nothing had actually changed. It seems like that same cycle is happening more frequently. And it turns out, there is some ancient wisdom that can help us manage it. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-financial-stoicism/

The market is obsessed with AI. But nobody is asking the right question: why is AI worth trillions of dollars? What problem is it solving? This week, we dive into the biggest structural shift in the global economy that no one is discussing – and the investment opportunities it will create.  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-biggest-thing-nobody-is-talking-about/

As we dive into the new year, markets have continued their solid pace. But there is plenty of international intrigue that has reminded investors of the importance – and drama! – in fossil fuels.  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-oil-still-matters/

As we wrap up the year, it would be easy to just say, “It was a great year in the markets! See you in 2026!” But as we prepared the year-end Weekly Insight Memo and Weekly Insight Podcast, we thought it would be a good time to focus on the lessons we learned this year. And, more importantly, how they might apply to future years that might not be so wonderful.  Read more here: https://insightwealth...

Barring a complete collapse in the next nine days, 2025 will mark just the sixth time in history that we’ve seen double digit returns in the S&P 500 for three consecutive years. Four years in a row is even more rare (it’s happened three times). And yet, as we told you last week, market prognosticators are expecting another double digit year in the market in 2026. Read more here: https://insigh...

It was a frigid weekend in Iowa. Which may be why an article we read about the “Windchill Economy” caught our attention. But the facts of the article – that how people feel about the economy today is much different than how it’s actually working – got us thinking. How predictive is the consumer's feelings about the economy? And how does it differ from what Wall Street is saying? Read more her...

We spend a lot of time talking about equities in this business. But not nearly enough time is devoted to the bond market. Interestingly, it’s the larger of the two markets. And it is a great “canary in the coal mine” about where the market thinks the economy is heading.  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-eyes-on-the-bond-market/

The holidays are upon us! And with that comes a race to the end of the year. In this edition of the Weekly Insight Memo and Weekly Insight Podcast, we’re taking a break from the market commentary and instead looking at some good year-end planning tools that you may find beneficial. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-feeling-charitable/

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-age-old-investment-advice/

We spend a lot of time talking about how companies are doing in this economy. And as Q3 earnings reports are wrapping up, the answer is “quite well!”. But there is a whole other side to the economy that matters even more: the consumer. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-two-economies/

Most people in the world are “headline readers”. There’s simply not enough time in a reader’s day to get past the headline and do the research. Which is why the headline we saw on Friday (“Stocks Worst November Since ‘08”) was enough to raise some hackles. Anytime someone draws a direct correlation between the current environment and 2008 it causes a visceral reaction amongst investors (and in our...

The market news last week was enough to give you whiplash. The Fed cut rates (Yay!). Powell intimated no more cuts in December (Boo!). Tech earnings were solid (Yay!). Some tech companies were punished for their AI spend (Boo!). But what does this all mean for the market in the weeks and months to come?  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fed-signals-tech-turbulence/

It’s Fed Week again. And by every measure, it seems certain we’re going to get another rate cut. But what should we make about the market’s certainty (100%!) that rate cuts will continue in December and into 2026?  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fed-certainty/

Over the last several weeks, there has been a proliferation of articles and commentators questioning the extremely large capital expenditures of AI firms as they ramp up their capacity. It’s a saying as old as time: you have to spend money to make money. But how much patience will investors have as the large AI firms spend hundreds of billions to build out their AI capacity.  Read more here: https...

It’s shutdown time in Washington, D.C. again. It’s always a dramatic time in the news. But is it something that should concern us as it relates to portfolios? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-shut-it-down/