The Macro Trading Floor

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas take a look into another busy week in central banking with the Fed, ECB & BoE all announcing further rate hikes on their tightening cycles. Markets have rallied through January with the S&P 500 returning roughly 8% so far in 2023. With the most speculative risk asset's rallying the most, it seems that "animal spirits" are back for in...

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso interpret the latest macroeconomic data and prepare for a week of important central bank meetings. They wonder whether the recent bullish movements in nearly every risk asset is a sign that quantitative easing (QE) is back on a global scale (the answer is a firm “no”). After discussing commodity prices, Andreas and Alfonso explor...

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Andreas and Alfonso welcome John Normand Cross-Asset Strategist, JPM alum for a global macro tour of the world. John walks through the most anticipated recession in history by looking at the current market pricing in FX, rates and credit. Has the forecasted slowdown in 2023 really started to rear its head under the headlines in financial media? John t...

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Steve Drobny Founder and CEO at Clocktower Group for an inside look into the hedge fund industry. With the past two years spurring the return of macro volatility, many macro hedge funds have arisen, posting high returns in the timeframe. Steve, with his extensive connections in the hedge fund industry, walks through the p...

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Nitesh Shah Head of Commodity and Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree for a discussion on the China reopening, how it will effect commodity markets and it's impact on broader markets. Energy was the strongest performing sector in 2022, but should we expect the same in 2023? Nitesh walks through the commodity supercycle t...

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso look back at 2022, before sharing their global macro outlook for 2023. Reflecting on the best trades of the year, Andreas and Alfonso remember the greatest trades put forward by our guests in 2022. Turning to 2023, just how will the events of 2022 shape the global macro picture? We dive into the equity market outlook, what the li...

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research for a discussion on what to expect as we head into 2023. Warren begins by walking through the current macro cycle he sees us in as we wrap up 2022 and head into 2023. As the yield curve displays some very important signals, Warren draws historical comparisons over the past 40+ yea...

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Consulting for a discussion on the changing macro landscape and the policy error the Fed is making. Taking us on a global macro tour of the world, Felix argues that the past few decades of globalization could now be in reverse, and most investors are not well positioned for that transition. We then...

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity for a discussion about the recession many analysts see ahead in 2023. How could a recession in 2023 effect corporate earnings and markets more broadly? As liquidity ha already declined throughout 2022, could a recession be the catalyst to bring markets lower? Jurrien wal...

We apologise for any minor audio issues you may experience on today's episode. -- On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Alex Campbell, the Founder of Rose AI, to the show for a discussion on the current situation in China. As inflation, de-globalization, and tight commodity markets continue to impact markets, Alex provides insights on the best ways to protect...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Thomas Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry joins the show to discuss the equity bear market in 2022. Tommy walks through what has happened in 2022, and what to expect in 2023 as investors face uncertainty if the recent rally is a bear market rally, or a bottom. Tommy goes on to discuss the energy trade and where the best ris...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitics at Cognitive Investments for a discussion on the global trend to a multipolar world. In 2022, geopolitics has been one of the leading factors in markets, so we invited an expert in geopolitics to help us navigate this environment. Expecting a shift away from globalization and a more...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Brent Donnelly President of Spectra Markets for a discussion on the economic weakness around the world. With market participants focusing on the U.S as Powell continues to fight inflation, Brent reminds us that the real stress is not in the U.S, but elsewhere. Looking to Canada, Brent walks through the fragility he sees i...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Raoul Pal CEO & Co-Founder, Real Vision & Global Macro Investor to the show for a discussion on debt, demographics and deflationary pressures. Raoul discusses some of the structural deflationary forces that lie ahead for markets. How will these forces effect markets as the Fed, and central banks globally, progress through...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas is joined by Jack Farley Host of Forward Guidance to discuss big tech earnings, preparing for a recession in Europe and natural gas prices. Natural gas prices in Europe plunged due to a mild start to winter throughout October, European next hour Dutch TTF actually briefly turned negative. Andreas & Jack walk through the dynamics sending pric...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Michael Gayed of Toroso Investments and publisher of The Lead-Lag Report to the show for a discussion on if their is a bull case for markets. Michael discusses the poor performance of bonds throughout the year as they failed to hedge equity drawdowns. What does this mean for the traditional 60/40? And how does the YTD per...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Mikael Sarwe, director and head of Strategy Sweden at Nordea, to the show. Sarwe argues that with collapsing liquidity driving down the money supply, the ability of market participants to take risk is greatly reduced, and as such the mid-term outlook for risk assets remains poor. Sarwe explains that he remains bond volati...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso welcomes John Porter Principal of Mercator Financial Advisors to the show. With a background spanning from CIO at the World Bank, Managing Director at Barclays, working in several hedge funds and so much more, John Porter was the perfect guest to invite to the show. John shares his thoughts on how he is viewing markets in 2022, and what the...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso discuss the top stories of the week from the Bank of England announcing emergency gilt market operations, recent volatility in currency markets & the Nord Stream gas leak. With so much happening in currencies as the US dollar continues marching higher, Alfonso & Andreas take the time to highlight the key indicators to look at in...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Bob Elliott Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds to the show. With U.S inflation still above 8%, Bob walks through previous periods of inflation and describes what kind of portfolios are best suited to periods of high inflation. How does the traditional 60/40, risk parity and often deemed commodity inflation hedges su...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso takes a week out and substitutes in Jack Farley Host of another Blockworks podcast titled "Forward Guidance". Andreas and Jack welcome Andrew Simon, Chief Operating Officer of Macro Hive to the show for a discussion on one of the most widely discussed topics in markets, energy. Seeing no sings of a reversal in the bullish trend for energy, p...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Vincent Deluard Director of global macro at StoneX. Vincent outlines the new regime for inflation before taking a deep dive into the labor market and how structural shifts such as demographics & de-globalization are beginning to cause tectonic shifts for global markets. Finally, despite all the headwinds Europe faces, Vin...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Ben Melkman Founder & CIO of Light Sky Macro. Expecting a secular shift in inflation, Ben shares his thoughts on the current state of markets as the Fed continues their fight to slay the inflation dragon. Could the Fed be out of ammo? Are markets mispriced for a secular shift in inflation? Ben walks through the biggest op...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome David Woo CEO of David Woo Unbound to the show. Recording ahead of Jackson Hole, David shares his outlook on a US recession, Fed policy vs economic growth, whether or not the Fed will be able to slay the inflation dragon and the importance of understanding politics as well as economics in this market regime. Finally, Davi...

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Whitney Baker CEO of Totem Macro to the show. With a background at some of the largest funds in the world, including Bridgewater, Whitney provides an expert view into the secular shift happening in markets today. Arguing that liquidity & globalization were two of the most important trends of the past 20 years, what will a...